Hit on a 16

[Helotes]

Now I am a novice, but it makes since to me that if the dealer is showing a ten, the assumption is that he is holding a ten, a twenty hand.
I show 16, only a 4 or a 5 help me, why would I hit with the probability of busting is so high? Is it there a better chance of him holding a lower card and busting than me hitting here?

 

[tribute]

The experts on this board can give you the precise numbers. I do know that there is only a very slight difference between hitting and standing on your 16.
If you count cards, you decide based on the count. For basic strategy players, you are slightly better off hitting. Or if allowed, you should surrender the 16 vs. a dealer 10. It's a real "dog" of a hand. One of the worst in the game.

 

[Helotes]

Surrender does sound like the best option. When a dealer turns up a 16 the whole table gets excited, this hand stinks.

 

[BJLFS]

Because if you hit you won't be losing as much as if you stayed. I believe the difference is 5 hands in a 1000. As mentioned before surrender it if you can.

 

[Helotes]

I am with you guys here. Here is an argument from my brother on this hand. (he also hits on the 16)

I would hit if surrender is not allowed, as this is the standard rule. I will bust 61.5 % of the time though (8 of the 13 cards available put you over 21), card counting aside. An ace, 2, 3 are useless against the possible 20 the dealer holds. It is interesting that we will hit on hand that we count on the dealer busting on.

 

[Renzey]

Here is an argument from my brother on this hand.
I will bust 61.5 % of the time though (8 of the 13 cards available put you over 21), card counting aside. An ace, 2, 3 are useless against the possible 20 the dealer holds.

It is common, but mistaken ploppy logic to assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole. In fact, if you did hit your 16 against a 10 and caught a 3 to make 19, you'd actually be a 53% favorite to win the hand! Nevertheless, with many of your 16's, even a fine-tuned basic strategy player should not hit against a 10. These are generaly 16's that contain a 4 or a 5, such as 8/5/3, or 9/4/3, or 9/5/2, or 8/4/4, or 7/5/4, or 4/4/4/4, etc. Yet, you should still hit multi-card 16's such as 6/3/7, 2/6/8, or even A/6/8/A (no 4 or 5). Correctly making this play often drives the other ploppies crazy. It's called the "Rule of 45", and fine-tunes basic strategy to a slightly higher level.

Even more astonishing, is the fact that not one ploppy in 100 has enough perception to realize that although you should often stand with 16 against a 10 -- you must always hit 16 against a 7. Players just can't grasp the concept that whether the dealer shows a 7 or a 10, you have exactly the same chance to bust when you hit your 16. But -- whenever you don't bust, you have a much better chance to win the hand against a 7 than against the 10.
It's somewhat analogous to the poker scenario of drawing to an open-end straight vs. drawing to an inside straight. Against the 7 up, your 16 has so many more "outs" to win the hand that hitting is much more worth the gamble.

I've watched countless players dutyfully hit hands such as 5/4/5/2 against a 10, then stubbornly stand with 16 against a 7. Pulling them aside and trying to explain the above concept has virtually always been futile. Maybe this post can reach a few would-be-ploppies out there.

 

[MangoJ]

Although a 10 in the hole is a major strategy aspect, it doesn't tell the full story. When not counting, stick to basic strategy.

What you CAN do is hit with 16v10 if you have 2 cards, and stand if you have 3 or more cards in your hand. The reason is that with a 2-card-16 you hold rather higher cards, thus leaving more lower cards for drawing.
But if you have a 3-card-16, you already holding lower cards, and chances are reduced for drawing another lower card.

 

[Coach R]

Like you said, surrender is the best option. Ploppies and others who are looking into counting and becoming an A.P. need to realize that reguardless of what you do, you are still going to lose half your hands or so. Your 16 vs a 10 will probably give you a loss, knowing the count can give a clue on hitting or standing, but it won't change the outcome.

 

[Renzey]

Your 16 vs a 10 will probably give you a loss, knowing the count can give a clue on hitting or standing, but it won't change the outcome.

That will save the hand, I believe about 1 time in 300, net -- but that's about it. Still though, a save on this hand here and a save on that hand there -- and pretty soon we're talking some real money.