My plan as a newbie 'advantage' player is to play 1D--DOA,H17 using the Hi-Lo counting system with a 1-4 spread of $5-$20 betting $5 at TC of 1 or lower, $10 at 2, $15 at 3, and $20 at 4 or higher. I will also be trying to use as many BS play variations as I can remember. What I would like to know is what the EV's would be for hourly rate and ROR% with a bankroll of $1000, $1200, and $1400 would be? Hope I haven't left out any info. All replies would be much appreciated.
Hourly Rate & ROR?
- Thread starter JR
- Start date
Well, it looked to me when I was playing downtown LV over the Xmas holidays that 1/2 a deck was about it. With more than 3 players at the table, 2 rounds were dealt I think. What brought this on was info that I have read that said for 1D spreading 1-4 between $25-$100 with a $7000 bankroll, the ROR% was 12% and the hourly rate would be $50. As I would not be able to manage this, I was wondering if everything could be divided by 5 (approx'y)? So, if that was the case then the hourly rate would be about $10/hr.
Playing the downtown game, giving you RO6 (more or less dealing 30 cards out of 52) and betting exactly as you described $5 at +1, $10 at +2, $15 at +3 and $20 at +4 (and above), counting system is Hi-Lo, using Wong's PBJA, 10,000,000 hands, I got:
Average win rate per 100 hands: $3.67
ROR with bankroll of $1500: 39%
ROR with bankroll of $3000: 15%
ROR with bankroll of $4500: 6%
ROR with bankroll of $6000: 2.5%
Not very good, eh? Well, R06 is not very good. So why not play at the Western or LVC and play with dealers that give you at least R07 and sometimes R08? Same sim, this time dealing 40 cards out of 52 on average (which is about what the Western game is right now):
Average win rate per 100 hands: $8.14
ROR with bankroll of $1500: 18%
ROR with bankroll of $3000: 2.5%
So, get the game! Otherwise, you are not going to have much fun.
--Mayor
Average win rate per 100 hands: $3.67
ROR with bankroll of $1500: 39%
ROR with bankroll of $3000: 15%
ROR with bankroll of $4500: 6%
ROR with bankroll of $6000: 2.5%
Not very good, eh? Well, R06 is not very good. So why not play at the Western or LVC and play with dealers that give you at least R07 and sometimes R08? Same sim, this time dealing 40 cards out of 52 on average (which is about what the Western game is right now):
Average win rate per 100 hands: $8.14
ROR with bankroll of $1500: 18%
ROR with bankroll of $3000: 2.5%
So, get the game! Otherwise, you are not going to have much fun.
--Mayor
A very genuine 'thanks' to you. I find it quite amazing how you and other posters continue to unselfishly respond to even the most simple and/or trivial questions that 'we' (newbies, novices, rookies, etc etc) ask. I have to admit that I have been quite engrossed in this whole BJ thing for the last 3 months or so. Thus far in 3 Vegas trips I have been mainly playing coupons and not willing to let the casinos have the 'advantage'. As I stated when I first joined your site, I am very impressed with it and I find that I keep coming back to it before others. I live in Canada and my 'other' and I have trips planned for Reno in Feb and another trip to Vegas in March. I am trying to take it one step at a time in getting 'there' so to speak. I probably should be posting this on the non-bj message board but I just wanted to express my appreciation and send you and others who regularly post here the kudos that I think you all deserve...great stuff...sincerely...JR
PS...I didn't realize that the Western had such a good game so I will check it out in March. I hear that Reno has good 1D games.
PS...I didn't realize that the Western had such a good game so I will check it out in March. I hear that Reno has good 1D games.
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
This is totally a BJ message JR so no sense posting it in non BJ area. I didn't want to burst your bubble re the hourly wind rate but that's it in a nutshell. Add the swing of the game to it and it makes you wonder if it's worth your while. You'll need a bigger bank to play it and hit it harder, but the swing stays the same x ? We have spoken about playing online, and that is a good way for you to build your bank. You can hit the real game with cyber game cash and not feel so bad when the neg swing hits you. $100 in for $100 bonus played x10 = 2000 divided by $100 = 5 cents per dollar played. With $2 hands you will make about 10 cents per hand. You will make more money per hour with relatively little swing online compared to 1:4 nickel BJ.
Are you going for vacation with the sig other? I hope it is a vacation because it will be rather difficult to win enough to cover your costs otherwise. The costs have gone nuts these last years. They are going to add another fuel surcharge. I used to fly for $99CAN and tax was $100CAN and had my room covered by the hotel with freebie din dinz.
Those were the dayz.........I'm sure some of the oldtimers around here have some amazing stories about the real good old days.
Are you going for vacation with the sig other? I hope it is a vacation because it will be rather difficult to win enough to cover your costs otherwise. The costs have gone nuts these last years. They are going to add another fuel surcharge. I used to fly for $99CAN and tax was $100CAN and had my room covered by the hotel with freebie din dinz.
Those were the dayz.........I'm sure some of the oldtimers around here have some amazing stories about the real good old days.
Hey Rob, thanks for your input...I guess that I should have mentioned the main reason I want to play $5 chips with 1-4 spread is that I haven't as yet played the game as a counter--I mentioned that I did some counting on the last trip but didn't bet spread except for a couple of times. I was just getting my feet wet and getting the feel of it. Now to take it to the next level, I want to do the whole thing but since I am so new, I just want to try it out at the lowest level--although I suppose I could go to $2-$8 at the El Cortez but I think that is getting a bit rediculous. From all I have learned so far I can see that the swings can be quite serious, so I think for me it is prudent to start out low while I am still capable of making errors, no? I also realize that for this to be profitable when the overall advantage is not likely to be over 2% then yes...a $25-$100 spread would be in order. Should things go well as I expect them to, then it is my intention to get there, but at the appropriate time. As far as expenses go to travel to gambling destinations--yes, these are vacations first and foremost for us. We both love Vegas and already do the coupon thing for RFB and shows etc so we know how to stretch it out and have a blast at the same time. I will send you another email as I have some more questions about the online stuff and your book...Regards...JR
Abraham de Moivre
Well-Known Member
Single deck hand held might not be the place to get your feet wet counting.
If you are playing heads up or with one other player, the pace of the game is going to be quick (you aren't going to have time to count and decide how to play your hand). In a hand held game, you won't see the other players cards until the dealer quickly flips them over at the end of the hand. You will have to worry about what cards you have seen and already counted, and which you haven't.
Go find a low limit $5 face up shoe game. Play with a full table, and sit towards 3rd base, so you will have plenty of time to count the other players (and your) cards, before you have to make a hit/stand decision. With a full table you won't be playing that many hands per hour, but you will be seeing a lot of cards (this is practice, right?). Whenever you lose the count, (which you will many times, everybody does their first few times out), then stop and wait for the shuffle or look for another table.
With low limits, and playing slow games at full tables, by the time you go thru a couple hundred of your bankroll, you will be like an old pro ;>
Of course, you might get lucky and never look back.
If you are playing heads up or with one other player, the pace of the game is going to be quick (you aren't going to have time to count and decide how to play your hand). In a hand held game, you won't see the other players cards until the dealer quickly flips them over at the end of the hand. You will have to worry about what cards you have seen and already counted, and which you haven't.
Go find a low limit $5 face up shoe game. Play with a full table, and sit towards 3rd base, so you will have plenty of time to count the other players (and your) cards, before you have to make a hit/stand decision. With a full table you won't be playing that many hands per hour, but you will be seeing a lot of cards (this is practice, right?). Whenever you lose the count, (which you will many times, everybody does their first few times out), then stop and wait for the shuffle or look for another table.
With low limits, and playing slow games at full tables, by the time you go thru a couple hundred of your bankroll, you will be like an old pro ;>
Of course, you might get lucky and never look back.Hey Abe, thanks for your imput. Here are some of the reasons I have chosen to go after the 1D game: I have a downloaded program (Sage) that I have been practicing on at home and am fairly comfortable with the face-down play; I prefer the 1-4 spread versus a larger spread which I understand needs to be considerably more--like at least 1-10; I played a limited amount of various #'s of decks during the 2 week LV visit in the summer and also the 2 week visit during this past Xmas season and just like the hand held games; I have decided to target the 1D game for future play mainly because I have read that it is where the most advantage and therefore 'gains' can be made; I don't mind playing with others at the table in 1D games while I hone my skills and then as I progress I should be able to handle 1-2 others at the table or even heads up; I am partial to the idea of getting a new shuffle frequently to 'start the count over' if I have to rather than having to wait or moving to a new table; I like the venues of the 1D games that can be found downtown LV and hopefully in Reno. Some of the challenges that I realize that I will be faced with are: having to incorporate BS play variations as I understand that there is equal importance of those along with bet variations in the 1D game; that the advantage player is more 'visible' in the 1D game, and so cover will be harder; that the swings can be much more volatile; that the future of 1D games is in jeopardy as the casinos move more and more to eliminating them as a playable game...eg 6-5 BJ payout games. So, am I making any sense here at all or am I out to lunch?
Abraham de Moivre
Well-Known Member
Sounds like a good plan. Just don't get discouraged at first. Everybody loses the count the first time in real casino conditions.