House Advantage question

[tezzadiver]

Hi All,
Long time no posts. Been fully occupied with getting my online poker game going!
My questions. We have a casino that is offering an 8 deck(No!!! lol) game with what I think is relatively favourable rules.
The rules are DAS, insurance( a rarity in the UK), dealer no hole card(european style) Double any 2 cards and dealer Stands S17.
But here`s the kicker- between 85- 90% penetration.
Could anyone tell me what the house edge is off the bat?

Secondly. Is this game beatable with a play all spread- say 1-18 or is it better to adopt a wong-like approach?

All replies appreciated.:laugh:

 

[Dyepaintball12]

I think any game is beatable with a 1-18 spread

 

[johndoe]

Something like 0.45%. 1-18 should be plenty, especially that kind of pen. But 0-18 (Wonging) is better.

 

[tezzadiver]

Something like 0.45%. 1-18 should be plenty, especially that kind of pen. But 0-18 (Wonging) is better.

Yes I`m pretty torn between both. The good thing is there are plenty of tables so playing the bunny rabbit and table hopping is no problem.:laugh:
Think I`ll try the play all with a 1-18- see how that goes- :cool2:

 

[aslan]

Hi All,
Long time no posts. Been fully occupied with getting my online poker game going!
My questions. We have a casino that is offering an 8 deck(No!!! lol) game with what I think is relatively favourable rules.
The rules are DAS, insurance( a rarity in the UK), dealer no hole card(european style) Double any 2 cards and dealer Stands S17.
But here`s the kicker- between 85- 90% penetration.
Could anyone tell me what the house edge is off the bat?

Secondly. Is this game beatable with a play all spread- say 1-18 or is it better to adopt a wong-like approach?

All replies appreciated.:laugh:

Are you trying to get barred or whatever they do in the UK? 1-18 is nice if you can get away with it; so is 1-50. Here in the states, we do very well with 1-10, which generates heat enough.

Not "wonging out" is like not using all the tools at your disposal. If your main purpose is enjoyment and not making money, then by all means just "play all." But if you want to maximize profits, "wong in and out." Do they have mid-shoe entry? If so, get on the cell phone and stand behind the table when the count goes south (to whatever your established "wong out" exit points are), and jump back in when the count recovers. If there is no MSE, then take a bathroom break once in a while at the appropriate times. Even with great pen, you can run into situations where you shouldn't play, either when the count is too low, or there is a scarcity of neutral cards (see Tarzan's count).

 

[aslan]

LOL!:laugh:
Its not the same here as in the states mate. I can get away with a 1-18 spread very easily in certain places. I`ve- played in Vegas(shoe and single/double deck games) and there is definetely heat.
Card counting in the UK is somewhat mythical and if you see the amount of ploppies playing here( not to mention dealer ploppies who don`t believe counting works!)
I could get away with an even larger spread if needed.
So my question was only if I could beat a 8 deck with the rules listed above on a play-all spread.
The general notion seems to be yes- especially if there is good pen.
Anyway thanks for your input- It was amusing:joker:

In the long run there is no doubt you can beat the game with play-all, but I have had occasion to play with good rules and good pen and lose my shirt on a play-all basis. Why then, would you want to put yourself at a disadvantage? My experience will never let me do that again. BTW, glad you appreciated my humor. :laugh:

 

[tezzadiver]

In the long run there is no doubt you can beat the game with play-all, but I have had occasion to play with good rules and good pen and lose my shirt on a play-all basis. Why then, would you want to put yourself at a disadvantage? My experience will never let me do that again. BTW, glad you appreciated my humor. :laugh:

True. I forgot to state that I would generally not be playing less than -1.
By table hopping as soon as the deck goes bad.
But it is also true that you can lose your shirt by wonging. How many times I have wonged in on great counts and lost. and won.
I must admit I have had more success on the play all approach. In the UK it is quite difficult in some places (because they are so damn small lol).
We have no single or double deck games and to my knowledge there exists only two 4 deckers in London, with the rest being six and recently the intro of the 8 deck.
Like I expained before, monster bet spreads are tolerated here and can therefore cover most bases.:eyepatch:
Just wish we had the surrender option:whip: London croupiers don`t even know what it is lol.

 

[aslan]

How many times I have wonged in on great counts and lost.

If I'm going to lose my shirt, that's the way I want to go.

What you are experiencing is the fact that you will not lose large sums quickly in bad counts, it will just dribble away (lol), but you will quickly lose large sums in good counts due to negative variance. If you want to count, you must learn to cherish good counts in spite of the fact that some of the time you will lose your shirt. It's the crux of counting--get used to it! (I know I haven't! lol)

 

[tezzadiver]

If I'm going to lose my shirt, that's the way I want to go.

What you are experiencing is the fact that you will not lose large sums quickly in bad counts, it will just dribble away (lol), but you will quickly lose large sums in good counts due to negative variance. If you want to count, you must learn to cherish good counts in spite of the fact that some of the time you will lose your shirt. It's the crux of counting--get used to it! (I know I haven't! lol)

But saying that Aslan, I have made quite a lot of money on negative counts even being at a disadvantage:cool2:
I distinctly remember some shoes betting the table minimum at low counts and crucifying the dealer. Go figure lol.
I do know what you are saying though. I have a mate who swears by back counting and even schlesinger recommends it as the modern shoe destroyer.
At what count are you wonging in? plus 2 or waiting for higher?
And bet spread 1-4?

 

[Canceler]

It makes perfect sense...

I have made quite a lot of money on negative counts even being at a disadvantage:cool2:
I distinctly remember some shoes betting the table minimum at low counts and crucifying the dealer.

I'm surprised whenever someone seems surprised that this happens.

Go figure lol.

I would figure that the same good cards that caused me to win a bunch of money also caused the count to drop.

 

[aslan]

I'm surprised whenever someone seems surprised that this happens.


I would figure that the same good cards that caused me to win a bunch of money also caused the count to drop.

Exactly. It's an opportunity for Oppositional Betting, a clever masking technique. When the count is falling fast, the high cards are falling just as fast.

Sometimes I have waited for the count to get high, then out of the blue begin betting very high. It works like a charm where the heat is high. If the house is watching they must be thinking, this guy waited until the count was plus 8 or plus 10 before he started betting--he's gotta be a fool. And look, he's still betting high and the count has already fallen to minus 4. Don't do this often, because no one can predict a positive or negative swing. It's a masking technique, and at times it works great, and it's safe to the extent that you begin betting high in positive territory. But you do lose a lot of your advantage by betting late, so you might want to make up for it by betting higher than usual, which of course flies in the face of Kelly principles. Oh, well. Sometimes I feel I need to do it this way. :laugh::whip:

 

[aslan]

But saying that Aslan, I have made quite a lot of money on negative counts even being at a disadvantage:cool2:
I distinctly remember some shoes betting the table minimum at low counts and crucifying the dealer. Go figure lol.
I do know what you are saying though. I have a mate who swears by back counting and even schlesinger recommends it as the modern shoe destroyer.
At what count are you wonging in? plus 2 or waiting for higher?
And bet spread 1-4?

If there is a lot of heat, I might wait until Plus 6, 7, 8 or whatever for cover, but normally I will jump in like you say at plus 2 or so and bet 8 or 9 units, maxing out at 10, 11 or 12. Even when there's heat, you can jump in at the right time, but you will soon wear out your welcome if you're always wonging in at just the right time. Same goes for play-all. If you up your bet consistent with your count system, no masking, you can't hang around long (where there's heat) before they invite you not to play.

If I am already at the table, I spread 1-10 for both 6-deck and 8-deck. I'm using KO, which works well on 6 and 8-deck games, but it's hard to translate the count to true count values. You can look up what I say in TC conversion tables available in the forum somewhere. I use the recommended betting progressions for KO. I begin betting 6-deck higher at minus 4 (KO RC) and ramp it up gradually to max bet at plus 4(KO RC/Hi-Lo TC), which is exactly a True Count of plus 4. (Betting progression = 2/2/3/4/5/6/8/9/10 units) I begin betting 8-deck higher at minus 6 (KO RC) and ramp it up gradually to max bet at plus 4 (KO RC/Hi-Lo TC). (2/2/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10 units)

 

[tezzadiver]

If there is a lot of heat, I might wait until Plus 6, 7, 8 or whatever for cover, but normally I will jump in like you say at plus 2 or so and bet 8 or 9 units, maxing out at 10, 11 or 12. Even when there's heat, you can jump in at the right time, but you will soon wear out your welcome if you're always wonging in at just the right time. Same goes for play-all. If you up your bet consistent with your count system, no masking, you can't hang around long (where there's heat) before they invite you not to play.

If I am already at the table, I spread 1-10 for both 6-deck and 8-deck. I'm using KO, which works well on 6 and 8-deck games, but it's hard to translate the count to true count values. You can look up what I say in TC conversion tables available in the forum somewhere. I use the recommended betting progressions for KO. I begin betting 6-deck higher at minus 4 (KO RC) and ramp it up gradually to max bet at plus 4(KO RC/Hi-Lo TC), which is exactly a True Count of plus 4. (Betting progression = 2/2/3/4/5/6/8/9/10 units) I begin betting 8-deck higher at minus 6 (KO RC) and ramp it up gradually to max bet at plus 4 (KO RC/Hi-Lo TC). (2/2/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10 units)

Sounds good.
Currently I`ve been betting table minimum(£5) till plus 2. Starting on plus 2, I increase to two hands of £10 each. Plus 3, 2 hands of £20 each, plus 4 and above, 2 hands 0f £30 or £40 each.
I must say this has worked quite well for me. I have recorded 532 sessions and won 2/3 of them. Up 1021 units.:laugh:
Largest winning session- start £150 walked with £1150, biggest loser £730.
Its a tough ride though and I still have a lot to learn.
Thanks for your advice, I think I just might get more seriously involved with wonging.

 

[tezzadiver]

Sounds good.
Currently I`ve been betting table minimum(£5) till plus 2. Starting on plus 2, I increase to two hands of £10 each. Plus 3, 2 hands of £20 each, plus 4 and above, 2 hands 0f £30 or £40 each.
I must say this has worked quite well for me. I have recorded 532 sessions and won 2/3 of them. Up 1021 units.:laugh:
Largest winning session- start £150 walked with £1150, biggest loser £730.
Its a tough ride though and I still have a lot to learn.
Thanks for your advice, I think I just might get more seriously involved with wonging.

Oh forgot to mention I use Hi-lo:laugh:

 

[aslan]

Oh forgot to mention I use Hi-lo:laugh:

I'm lazy, that's the reason I use KO. I would not recommend KO for double and single deck games. Hi-Lo is far better IMO. If only I had the discipline to learn a level 2 or 3 count. Definition of discipline: Lose enough times until you are motivated to improve your chances of winning. I am almost there. lol