How bad is a fresh shoe?

[Dschddny]

I've read that it isn't good to play at a table that has just opened (i.e. they just opened the cards and did the initial shuffling, for 8 decks in the shoe). My question is, how bad is such a situation exactly, as compared to a shoe which has been used for several hours and thus shuffled much more?

Thanks!

 

[Stealth Bomber]

I read that it's not completely random until after 6 shuffles, unless they "wash" all the decks on the surface of the table.

 

[The Mayor]

I don't know where you heard this, but it is nonsense.

Question authority -- even more so in this business. There are a lot of people who will say something to sound smart, but really don't know much.

Now, if the cards had never been shuffled, let's look at the first hand heads up:

A burned.

you: 2,4
dealer: 3,5

You hit get a 6, another hit, get a 7 for a total of 19.

Then the dealer hits, gets an 8 then a 9 and busts.

So you won the first hand. Retire.

--Mayor

 

[learning to count]

If any thing you want to at least to start your count at the beggining of a shoe. You can jump in later when you have the advantage. Whats a random shuffle? The cards are there and you should be taking advantage of positive runs. It is nonsense to discuss clumping and card prediction. Just count the cards and play. If the game is legal then it can be beat. The one thing you should be aware is heat.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

If any thing, you want to at least to start your count at the begining of a shoe.

Certainly true. However, what if we come strolling by a 6D in progress and happen to see the table full of small cards, decide to run the C and find an RC of 21. There are 3 decks worth of cards in the discard tray. I know we treat it as though it is the top of the shoe in this situation and for counting purposes, we give it a TC of +7. My worry though and question for this situation is:

Am I seeing so many small cards now because the big ones already went
through?

I think it is just pure nonsense to ever have this thought pop up. However, I still need some confirmation of assurance.

 

[The Mayor]

>Am I seeing so many small cards now because the big ones already went
through? I think it is just pure nonsense to ever have this thought pop up. However, I still need some confirmation of assurance.

Consider this confirmation of assurance, it is pure nonsense

 

[Counter - Intelligence]

Unseen cards are UNSEEN CARDS. If you enter in the middle of a shoe all the cards in the discard tray should be treated as being behind the cut card. In essense you are enterinig a shoe with poor penetration but your adjusted TC is still valid.

With regards to new cards, I have also read that the cards do not become truly mixed until after the third shuffle. I don't recall who made that statement so I won't quote anyone, but it was a reputable author. So what. We depend on a non homogenous distribution of cards to apply our strategies.

 

[Stealth Bomber]

Thanks for the reassurance on that.

How about the original subject though; does it matter whether or not the new 6 deck pack of cards are shuffled well or not?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Re: A better question- average RC at an open seat

This is something I've been wondering about for my Wong-around strategy. When you walk up to a fresh shoe, the RC is always 0 assuming you are playing with a bunch of full decks.

Now if you Wong away from a table and walk up to the first available open seat at another table, what would you expect the average RC to be? First approximation it is also 0. But... average players walk away from a table when the dealer has been catching a lot of hand, and the dealer catching hands means low cards have been being played, which means a higher count than 0. On the other hand, the opening you found may have just been vacated by another counter, and guess why he left. Does anybody have any research/data/ideas on this effect?

 

[Felix Rue-de-Guerre]

Re: A better question- average RC at an open seat

>>But... average players walk away from a table when the dealer has been catching a lot of hand, and the dealer catching hands means low cards have been being played, which means a higher count than 0.

I would say this only might mean the other players perception is that the dealer had been catching more hands, whether it be true or not.

However, my guess is that most other players leave the table for other reasons. Like when someone jumps in and out of the shoe and screws up the flow. Or, for any number of similar reasons we all know way too well.

-Felix

 

[Stealth Bomber]

Re: A better question- average RC at an open seat

But... average players walk away from a table when the dealer has been catching a lot of hand, and the dealer catching hands means low cards have been being played...

I think this may be true to a certain extent if the other tables are generally full. I often ask the D; 'What happened, why is everyone gone? Are you not busting or are you just getting all the aces and faces?'

I never assume the reason the table is empty is because the counters left a negative pack. The chances of it being counters rather than ploppies, is way too slim.

 

[Feep]

Re: A better question- average RC at an open seat

Keep in mind the dealer will always win more hands. Our advantage is made on the 3:2. Therefore the player's perception is probably not due to dealer winning more hands. Most likely due to:

1) Dealer pulling to 20/21

OR

2) Dealer pulling lots of BJs, and players pulling few.

Now one would be good, and two would be neutral or bad.