How do you handle a bad streak

fsscout

Member
I live and play in Las Vegas. The past week I played for about 20 hours and was up $449.00. I am a low stakes player with a $5 to $30 spread. Yesterday after playing three different tables, at the fisrt casino I lost $250 in 2 hours. I went to another casino and lost another $200 in an hour. So I blew my 20 hours of hard work and winnings in 3 hours.

It was one of those days that no matter what table I played at the dealers got a lot more blackjacks than usual and rarely busted. It seemed like I was getting stiffs all night long. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. How do you handle a horrible run like I had?
 
fsscout said:
I live and play in Las Vegas. The past week I played for about 20 hours and was up $449.00. I am a low stakes player with a $5 to $30 spread. Yesterday after playing three different tables, at the fisrt casino I lost $250 in 2 hours. I went to another casino and lost another $200 in an hour. So I blew my 20 hours of hard work and winnings in 3 hours.

It was one of those days that no matter what table I played at the dealers got a lot more blackjacks than usual and rarely busted. It seemed like I was getting stiffs all night long. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. How do you handle a horrible run like I had?
That was not a horrible run.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
A horrible run is 170hrs and losing over 560 units.

or losing 18 out of 21 sessions.

Your lose sounds like the cards fell correctly for the dealers hand instead of yours. Chaulk it up to another day in the life of a counter.

Walk a few miles, workout, go to bed, and then tomorrow go back and get your money back.

Better cards to you tomorrow.

BJC
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Obviously, you were wearing unlucky clothing. I'd start by1) burning everything in your hotel bath tub. Then I would 2)bathe for a minimum of three hours before 3) sleeping at least eight and then 4)having a Grand Slam Breakfast at The Wild West. 5)Be sure to enter the WW on your left foot and 6)exit on your right.
Before sitting down at another table, 7)tell yourself yesterday is in the past and today is the start of a new winning streak.
As you gain experiance you'll learn steps 1 thru 6 pale in importance to step 7.
 

Canceler

Well-Known Member
fsscout said:
How do you handle a horrible run like I had?
1. Recognize that large swings are common.
2. Review what I call the Big 3 (playing, betting, counting) to make sure you’re doing them all correctly.
3. Keep playing.

Also, you may need to revise your expectations.

fsscout said:
The past week I played for about 20 hours and was up $449.00. I am a low stakes player with a $5 to $30 spread.
Your average win rate was $22.45 per hour. Do you think this is normal? Because if I was spreading $5 - $30, I would expect to win only about $3 per hour.

You may have been lucky there. And, more recently, you’ve had some bad luck. The influence of luck (or variance, as some would prefer I call it) is unavoidable.
 

psyduck

Well-Known Member
If you look at the small advantage you have at high TCs, you will understand it is not uncommon to lose at high TCs. Then consider the fact that high TCs do not happen very often, you will have a better picture what a card counter deals with.

In order to win big, one needs to bet big. However, when you bet big, you lose big too when the cards do not fall your way. All these factors come down to your BR size.
 

shiznites

Well-Known Member
When I lost $2600 in 7 hours I wanted to cry. Did alot of breathing instead. Smoked some greens. Cooled off and tried to not let the emotions get to me. Looked at my numbers and learned that even though I was SLIGHTLY below my EV, I am still UP!
 

fsscout

Member
Canceler said:
1. Recognize that large swings are common.
2. Review what I call the Big 3 (playing, betting, counting) to make sure you’re doing them all correctly.
3. Keep playing.

Also, you may need to revise your expectations.


Your average win rate was $22.45 per hour. Do you think this is normal? Because if I was spreading $5 - $30, I would expect to win only about $3 per hour.

You may have been lucky there. And, more recently, you’ve had some bad luck. The influence of luck (or variance, as some would prefer I call it) is unavoidable.
This is not the first time I tried counting. I have been doing it off and on for 20 years. I do expect a win rate in the $15.00 per hour range. This is historically my average and everything I have read indicates that this win rate is not unusual. I was wondering if other players use a daily loss limit or limit play time. I have read different ideas on limiting one time losses and I was interested to know if others have a good plan to follow.
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
fsscout said:
This is not the first time I tried counting. I have been doing it off and on for 20 years. I do expect a win rate in the $15.00 per hour range. This is historically my average and everything I have read indicates that this win rate is not unusual. I was wondering if other players use a daily loss limit or limit play time. I have read different ideas on limiting one time losses and I was interested to know if others have a good plan to follow.
If your just counting in an average 6d game, playing all, I would better estimate that you would expect a win rate of about 1.5-2x your unit....

$5.00unit x 1.5 = $7.50/hr, but thats just a guestimate.

BJC
 

HockeXpert

Well-Known Member
fsscout:

If you spread $5-30 and get a win rate of $15 per hour, then I want to know what you are doing, besides counting, to get that high a win rate. :grin:

bjcount:

I doubt a w/r of 1.5-2x the unit size could be gained by spreading 6:1 on 6D with play all. Without doing any math, I'd say you'd be lucky to get .5x your unti size witha 6:1 spread.:laugh:

HockeXpert
 

fsscout

Member
bjcount said:
If your just counting in an average 6d game, playing all, I would better estimate that you would expect a win rate of about 1.5-2x your unit....

$5.00unit x 1.5 = $7.50/hr, but thats just a guestimate.

BJC
I only play DD. There are quite a few of those in Vegas.
 
fss

fsscout said:
I only play DD. There are quite a few of those in Vegas.
You know that this will happen.

However if you really pay attention in a hand shuffled dd, and you control the cut card, you should be able to turn it around.

Look at what happened as a great challenge to vastly improve your game and to get even with the evil casino....this is really an opportunity:)

CP

CP
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
HockeXpert said:
fsscout:

bjcount:

I doubt a w/r of 1.5-2x the unit size could be gained by spreading 6:1 on 6D with play all. Without doing any math, I'd say you'd be lucky to get .5x your unti size witha 6:1 spread.:laugh:

HockeXpert
Your correct, my error, missed the 1-6 spread.

per cvcx 4.5/6d = win rate is $4.23/hr, $5u, hilo..

checked quickly a DD
62%, s17,das, = $8.75/hr with a $5 unit

somehow my 1.5u-2u was on the mark.. :) .... just the wrong game.

BJC
 
Top