How many index #'s?
- Thread starter Cyrano
- Start date
Automatic Monkey
Banned
I've done the math, and you have to calculate the value of your own indices based on the game you play and your spread. Even the penetration will make a difference because it will affect how often the very high counts come up.
Some of the split and DD indices increase your profit by only a few pennies, while increasing your risk vastly because they involve you putting out another big bet. I was able to increase my BJ attack desirability index by leaving out certain indices, rather than playing additional ones. If you tell me all the parameters of your game- count, rules, number of decks, penetration, and the spread you use, I can post an example of the index values.
Some of the split and DD indices increase your profit by only a few pennies, while increasing your risk vastly because they involve you putting out another big bet. I was able to increase my BJ attack desirability index by leaving out certain indices, rather than playing additional ones. If you tell me all the parameters of your game- count, rules, number of decks, penetration, and the spread you use, I can post an example of the index values.
How do you calc it? I used CVindex to generate my indices and then simply used CVCX to widdle it down to something I felt comfortable with. Is there another function that lets you see the values of each index? BTW, for the spread I'm using, full indices' EV was $17.66 with a Score of 139.58; with my indices, the EV was $16.41 with a Score of 123.64, and with the Ill 18, it was $14.98 with a Score of 105.44.
My game is SD pitch with 1-6 spread, Downtown Vegas rules and about 60% pen. using KO.
My game is SD pitch with 1-6 spread, Downtown Vegas rules and about 60% pen. using KO.
Compare these and see if some of the numbers are the same
// KO 1 DECK RISK AVERSE INDEX CHART
// 65% Penetration
// Indices generated by SBA STRATEGY GENERATOR, Version 5.0.3
// When Two numbers given, first is for H17 game / second for S17
// When "A" Follows number, add one for S17 game
// NOTE: the indices are reversal for:
// splitting 8,8 vs. T, 8,8 vs. 9, 3,3 vs. 7, and late surrender 17 vs. A up
// Buy insurance if running count >= 3
// 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A (Dealer's up cards)
// hard standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
4A 4 2 1 0/2 H H H H 10A // hard 12
1A 1 0 -1 -2A H H H H 7/9 // hard 13
0 -1 -2 -2 -4A 10 12A 10 6 5/7 // hard 14
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6A 10 11 8 4 4/7 // hard 15
-4 -5 -6 -7 -7A 11 9 5 2 3/6 // hard 16
H H H H H S S S S -3 // hard 17
// soft standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
S S S S S S S H H H/0 // soft 18
// hard doubling table (double if >= number)
14 11 9 8 9A H H H H H // hard 7
10 8 6 5 5 12 H H H H // hard 8
3 2 0 -1 -2 5 8 H H H // hard 9
-3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 -1 1 5 3 // hard 10
-5 -6 -6 -7 -7 -4 -3 -1 -1 0/1 // hard 11
// soft doubling table (double if >= number)
10 7 3A 0 -1 H H // A 2
11 8 1A -1 -3 H H // A,3
11 7 1 -2 -3 H H // A,4
10 6A 1 -2 -5 H H // A,5
5 0 -2 -5 -6 H H // A,6
4A 1A -2 -3 -5A 13 H // A,7
7 5 4 2 1A 11 H // A,8
7 7 6 5 5 10 H/13 // A,9
9 8 7 6 6 S/12 S // A,T
// splitting table for DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
0 -1 -2 -3 -4 SP 10 H H H // 2,2
-3 -3 -4 -6 -5A 13 H H H H // 3,3
H 7A 4A 0 -1A H H H H H // 4,4
N E V E R S P L I T 5S - T R E A T A S 10 // 5,5
1 0 -1 -3 -3 -6A H H H H // 6,6
-2 -3 -4 -4 -4A Sp 1 H H H // 7,7
Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 11/10 4 -1/Sp // 8,8
0 0 -1 -2 -2 6 -4 -4 H 2 // 9,9
8 7 6 5 5 9 12 S S S // T,T
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5A // A,A
// splitting table for no DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
8 2A 0 -2 -4A Sp H H H H // 2,2
9 H -4 Sp/-6 Sp 7 H H H H // 3,3
H H H H H H H H H H // 4,4
N E V E R S P L I T 5S - T R E A T A S 10 // 5,5
3 2 0 -1 -1 Sp H H H H // 6,6
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4A Sp H H H H // 7,7
Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 7 3 -1/Sp // 8,8
1 1 0 -1 -1A 7 -4 -4 S 2A // 9,9
8 7 6 5 5 9 12 S S S // T,T
-6 -6A -7 -7 -8 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5A // A,A
// Late surrender table (surrender if >= number)
H H 9 9 H // surrender hard 12
H H 8 6 7 // surrender hard 13
9 8 5 3A 3A // surrender hard 14
9 7 4 2 0/2 // surrender hard 15
9 5 2 -1 -3/-1 // surrender hard 16
S 11 9 8 1/-2 // surrender hard 17
// Surrender 8,8 vs. dealer's T if running count >= 2
// KO 1 DECK RISK AVERSE INDEX CHART
// 65% Penetration
// Indices generated by SBA STRATEGY GENERATOR, Version 5.0.3
// When Two numbers given, first is for H17 game / second for S17
// When "A" Follows number, add one for S17 game
// NOTE: the indices are reversal for:
// splitting 8,8 vs. T, 8,8 vs. 9, 3,3 vs. 7, and late surrender 17 vs. A up
// Buy insurance if running count >= 3
// 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A (Dealer's up cards)
// hard standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
4A 4 2 1 0/2 H H H H 10A // hard 12
1A 1 0 -1 -2A H H H H 7/9 // hard 13
0 -1 -2 -2 -4A 10 12A 10 6 5/7 // hard 14
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6A 10 11 8 4 4/7 // hard 15
-4 -5 -6 -7 -7A 11 9 5 2 3/6 // hard 16
H H H H H S S S S -3 // hard 17
// soft standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
S S S S S S S H H H/0 // soft 18
// hard doubling table (double if >= number)
14 11 9 8 9A H H H H H // hard 7
10 8 6 5 5 12 H H H H // hard 8
3 2 0 -1 -2 5 8 H H H // hard 9
-3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 -1 1 5 3 // hard 10
-5 -6 -6 -7 -7 -4 -3 -1 -1 0/1 // hard 11
// soft doubling table (double if >= number)
10 7 3A 0 -1 H H // A 2
11 8 1A -1 -3 H H // A,3
11 7 1 -2 -3 H H // A,4
10 6A 1 -2 -5 H H // A,5
5 0 -2 -5 -6 H H // A,6
4A 1A -2 -3 -5A 13 H // A,7
7 5 4 2 1A 11 H // A,8
7 7 6 5 5 10 H/13 // A,9
9 8 7 6 6 S/12 S // A,T
// splitting table for DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
0 -1 -2 -3 -4 SP 10 H H H // 2,2
-3 -3 -4 -6 -5A 13 H H H H // 3,3
H 7A 4A 0 -1A H H H H H // 4,4
N E V E R S P L I T 5S - T R E A T A S 10 // 5,5
1 0 -1 -3 -3 -6A H H H H // 6,6
-2 -3 -4 -4 -4A Sp 1 H H H // 7,7
Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 11/10 4 -1/Sp // 8,8
0 0 -1 -2 -2 6 -4 -4 H 2 // 9,9
8 7 6 5 5 9 12 S S S // T,T
-6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5A // A,A
// splitting table for no DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
8 2A 0 -2 -4A Sp H H H H // 2,2
9 H -4 Sp/-6 Sp 7 H H H H // 3,3
H H H H H H H H H H // 4,4
N E V E R S P L I T 5S - T R E A T A S 10 // 5,5
3 2 0 -1 -1 Sp H H H H // 6,6
-2 -2 -3 -4 -4A Sp H H H H // 7,7
Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 7 3 -1/Sp // 8,8
1 1 0 -1 -1A 7 -4 -4 S 2A // 9,9
8 7 6 5 5 9 12 S S S // T,T
-6 -6A -7 -7 -8 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5A // A,A
// Late surrender table (surrender if >= number)
H H 9 9 H // surrender hard 12
H H 8 6 7 // surrender hard 13
9 8 5 3A 3A // surrender hard 14
9 7 4 2 0/2 // surrender hard 15
9 5 2 -1 -3/-1 // surrender hard 16
S 11 9 8 1/-2 // surrender hard 17
// Surrender 8,8 vs. dealer's T if running count >= 2
Automatic Monkey
Banned
OK, thew first problem I see is that using indexes for the true counts from -3 to +9 is NOT enough for a SD or DD game. That's barely enough for a shoe game and a level 1 count. I would go at least to +/- 16. People leave out the really low counts because a shoe player Wongs out for those, but in the SD environment you can't just walk away from the table every time you see a TC=-4 count.
The way you calculate the index cash values using CVData is as follows:
Run a sim using full indices and one using Basic Strategy only; same spread, same playing conditions. Now in the Statistics/Hands/Win Rate screen, you'll see all the possible hands vs. dealer upcard and the money you've won/lost per hour on each. There will be a different table for both the full index player and the Basic Strategy player.
Now here comes the boring part: make an Excel file with a row for every index in the full indices, identify it with the the player's hand, the dealer's hand, the action in question, and the true count at which it is played. In the two columns next to it, enter the Win Rate for the BS player, and then the Win Rate for the full index player. Subtract those two columns, and you will have the cash value of each index. Sort them in descending order by this cash value.
Surprise. There will be 10-20 at the bottom of the pile that have a negative cash value, and 5-10 more that have zero cash value. No explanation needed why you don't want those in your arsenal. But you will find a bunch more that involve doubling your maximum bet, such as in a DD or a split, and your expected cash value for this is all of 10 cents per hour! That is totally unacceptable for anyone with a limited bankroll, which I presume is all of us.
So here is a good compromise for determining what indices to play: You can play all of the hit/stand ones that have a cash value greater than zero. Even the ones with very low value involve no extra risk and make your play appear inconsistent to the pit, a value in itself. Unlikely anyone in the pit is familiar with these obscure playing strategies. In a game with surrender you can also play all of the surrender ones.
Now the DD and split ones, I'd recommend playing only the ones that have a significant cash value, especially at the higher counts when you have a max bet out there. Sure, DD 9 vs. 2, and 9 vs. 7, (and 11 vs. A for shoe players), DD A8 vs 5 or 6, and split 10 indexes if you don't feel those are too much of a giveaway as a counter. But most of them aren't worth it. You will probably find yourself using no more than a dozen DD and split indices after you analyze them in this way, and even if you play all of the useful hit/stand ones, you're going to be playing no more than 30-40 total.
The way you calculate the index cash values using CVData is as follows:
Run a sim using full indices and one using Basic Strategy only; same spread, same playing conditions. Now in the Statistics/Hands/Win Rate screen, you'll see all the possible hands vs. dealer upcard and the money you've won/lost per hour on each. There will be a different table for both the full index player and the Basic Strategy player.
Now here comes the boring part: make an Excel file with a row for every index in the full indices, identify it with the the player's hand, the dealer's hand, the action in question, and the true count at which it is played. In the two columns next to it, enter the Win Rate for the BS player, and then the Win Rate for the full index player. Subtract those two columns, and you will have the cash value of each index. Sort them in descending order by this cash value.
Surprise. There will be 10-20 at the bottom of the pile that have a negative cash value, and 5-10 more that have zero cash value. No explanation needed why you don't want those in your arsenal. But you will find a bunch more that involve doubling your maximum bet, such as in a DD or a split, and your expected cash value for this is all of 10 cents per hour! That is totally unacceptable for anyone with a limited bankroll, which I presume is all of us.
So here is a good compromise for determining what indices to play: You can play all of the hit/stand ones that have a cash value greater than zero. Even the ones with very low value involve no extra risk and make your play appear inconsistent to the pit, a value in itself. Unlikely anyone in the pit is familiar with these obscure playing strategies. In a game with surrender you can also play all of the surrender ones.
Now the DD and split ones, I'd recommend playing only the ones that have a significant cash value, especially at the higher counts when you have a max bet out there. Sure, DD 9 vs. 2, and 9 vs. 7, (and 11 vs. A for shoe players), DD A8 vs 5 or 6, and split 10 indexes if you don't feel those are too much of a giveaway as a counter. But most of them aren't worth it. You will probably find yourself using no more than a dozen DD and split indices after you analyze them in this way, and even if you play all of the useful hit/stand ones, you're going to be playing no more than 30-40 total.
Strange.. I got different numbers than you:
Dealer card:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X A
My
17 -10
16 5 6 2 -1 2
15 -10 7 9 5 1 3
I have more numbers, but this should show you that our stats not even in the same ballpark. Strange... I'll run mine again.
--------------
// hard standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
4A 4 2 1 0/2 H H H H 10A // hard 12
1A 1 0 -1 -2A H H H H 7/9 // hard 13
0 -1 -2 -2 -4A 10 12A 10 6 5/7 // hard 14
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6A 10 11 8 4 4/7 // hard 15
-4 -5 -6 -7 -7A 11 9 5 2 3/6 // hard 16
H H H H H S S S S -3 // hard 17
Dealer card:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X A
My
17 -10
16 5 6 2 -1 2
15 -10 7 9 5 1 3
I have more numbers, but this should show you that our stats not even in the same ballpark. Strange... I'll run mine again.
--------------
// hard standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
4A 4 2 1 0/2 H H H H 10A // hard 12
1A 1 0 -1 -2A H H H H 7/9 // hard 13
0 -1 -2 -2 -4A 10 12A 10 6 5/7 // hard 14
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6A 10 11 8 4 4/7 // hard 15
-4 -5 -6 -7 -7A 11 9 5 2 3/6 // hard 16
H H H H H S S S S -3 // hard 17