how much of an advantage will i gain

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Molson

New Member
Hi i started playin blackjack and enjoyed it so i studied the best strategies for a few month and now know them by heart. I been looking at counting for a while and understand how much time and effort it would take for me to be good at it. my question is how much of an advantage will i gain by doing so. I have ordered the blackjack bluebook as i thought this would be a good read. i also read that you can increase your winning chances without counting using a few different techniuqes( dont know what these are yet). So what are the percentage chances of winning using counting?

Also i have read alot of these posts is there anything that is highly recommended to read for improving my game at blackjack. some betting advice would be good as i rarely stray from the min bet wether im up or down at my casino.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
1) over the long run,the chances of you winning after you can successfully count are at least 99%.Over the short term,it would vary.
2)Blackjack Bluebook is a good place to start.Read it,practice what it says and then practice a lt more.
3) To be a successful counter,you'll need to vary your bets wildly.You'll need to have bigger bets out when the count is in your favor,and smaller bets when its not.It will become second nature,if you let it.
Learning to count is not that hard. It takes time,and practice but so does almost everything one does well.
 
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EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
If you're not counting, then I'd just recommend learning perfect basic strategy, and playing at the slowest table possible. Bluebook is going to lay out some "mini-counting" plays and hand-interaction techniques. However, it would be best to describe these techniques as reducing your disadvantage, rather than actually yielding an advantage. (I'm making an assumption, my copy of bluebook hasn't arrived in the mail yet).

To actually move into advantage territory, you'll need to move into counting-land. And there, the advantage is so small, make sure you check out the bankroll requirements, which are onerous.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
Molson said:
my question is how much of an advantage will i gain by doing so.
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A card counter generally expects to win about 1-2 units per hour. Someone betting $5-$50 per hand will expect about $5-$10 per hour.

Molson said:
i also read that you can increase your winning chances without counting using a few different techniuqes( dont know what these are yet).
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There are lots of advanced techniques that will give you a much bigger advantage, but you need to learn card counting first. You have to walk before you can run. :)

There are some techniques that will work without counting (like couponomy and scavenger BJ) but those will make more sense once you understand the odds a little better.

Molson said:
So what are the percentage chances of winning using counting?
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That depends on how many hours you’re going to play. It could take anywhere around 100-400 hours of play before you approach your long run expectations. The short term fluctuations are pretty crazy so you’ll need to have a will of steel and keep playing an aggressive game. After reading a few books you will have a good idea what sort of variance to expect.

-Sonny-
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
one of the most importing things that I've confronted in learning to count over the past two months is the issue of bankroll.

my current bankroll is pathetic, and to play a really winning game i'll need to at least triple it. so while learning to count (and bluebook is a great place to start) maybe you should also start thinking about putting some money aside, open a separate savings account, evaluate what you are willing to risk.

i opened a savings account and put money in it that i am 100% prepared to lose and if i do i'm emotionally prepared for it too.

my current job just pays the bills, but my new job in the fall will double my sallary and that's when i plan on building my bankroll - to at least the 1000 unit level.

other advice - learn BS, buy some playing cards for home (i bought used casino cards on ebay, 6 decks for $13) and practice BS under every possible scenario you can imagine, deal to yourself, play BJ game on your comp etc.... BS is a small hangup for me still in the casino which distracts from my ability to count and make index plays to a small extent. BS needs to be second nature, instant and for me this has only come with memorization *and* practice. lots of it.

to your original question to win at blackjack you'll need sufficient bankroll and near perfect skill and as stated you should expect to win 1-2 units per hour. having a sufficient bankroll is important since even as a counter you should expect to lose money in big chunks at times. if these losses eat up your bankroll then you'll never get above where you started. sad, but true.
 
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rogue1

Well-Known Member
Blackjack Bluebook II

First learn Basic Strategy 'til you've got it down cold. Blackjack Bluebook II gets a Basic Strategy player to really see and appreciate layouts on the blackjack table that were not appreciated or understood before.

The book slowly takes you into counting and in my experience the Kiss III count works for me and gets the $$$.

Before reading it I never would have thought I'd be able to count cards-I guess I was buying into the myth that you have to be mathmatically gifted or an M.I.T. genius level guy to count cards. Not!

Good Luck!
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Mimosine said:
one of the most importing things that I've confronted in learning to count over the past two months is the issue of bankroll.
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Great post Mimosine - you seem to have a strong grasp of what's important. The fact you are holding off playing until adequately capitalized speaks volumes.

I bet alot of counters fail due to under-capitalization compared to their bet-spreads. It's certainly not because they can't count. That's the easy part!
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
1) over the long run,the chances of you winning after you can successfully count are at least 99%.
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Just a question for all - what percentage of card counters do you think fail or succeed however you want to define that? It just seems there are so many pitfalls along the way that maybe alot eventually give up or go broke never making it to the "long-term".
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
Using coupons and other casino promotions to increase your EV. Things like matchplay coupons, $7 for $5 coupons, and double point days can all be used to increase your profit without adding much risk. Here are some articles to give you the idea:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/CompSecrets.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf

-Sonny-
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from the first link: "As a professional casino chiseler, you’ll be patrolling the casinos constantly, looking for careless dealers, big jackpots, and money left in slot trays. As you walk around, grab everything that might have value; you can sort it out later."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
Mimosine said:
from the first link: "As a professional casino chiseler, you’ll be patrolling the casinos constantly, looking for careless dealers, big jackpots, and money left in slot trays. As you walk around, grab everything that might have value; you can sort it out later."HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
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If you grab money from slot trays, you could sort it out over the next 3-5 in prison lol.

Heck u go to jail just for playing unused credits on a slot machine.
 
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