I am so baffled...

[Bigslicker]

I’ve always loved poker and the very few times I’ve ever been to Vegas my game of choice has always been blackjack, granted I’ve not been there in probably 10 years now, so I’m not a gambling man, and good thing too…
Only one time I actually came out with winnings, heh...

So what I want to know is if at best your odds at winning at blackjack are slightly less than ½ the time, what is the attraction? I understand hot tables play some influence, and then there’s the counting cards bit which I don't know much about, but I am really having trouble understanding the attraction to something that mathematically at best you should just break even over the long hall.

I guess what makes me more discouraged is the fact that I happen to stumble onto this website / forum, read through all the blackjack strategy & instructions, then I played the trainer which I’ve done about 10 times total, 3-4 of those times I got so frustrated I just closed it, however the other 5-6 times I actually played by the strategy guide religiously and each time I ended up loosing the 1000 within about 40 – 50 hands, and that's playing $100 bets each hand, I'm dead serious. But the funny thing to me is I’ve followed the strategy guide to the letter, the few times I screwed up I switched to what the strategy guide said I should do and I always end up a looser eventually. My typical win / loose ratio ends up at about 1 / 3. Who knows maybe I just have the worst luck, but then I think how can luck influence mathematical probability? At least out of that many games? I guess I so don’t understand, but at least I do understand that if I was at Vegas instead of playing the trainer, I’d be one broke man…

I’d appreciate any input as on the one hand I’m fascinated but this, but on the other deeply perplexed

Thanks!

 

[Sonny]

Blackjack typically has the lowest house edge of all casino games. That’s a big attraction right there. People feel like they will be able to play longer with the same amount of money compared to other games. It also gives them a very good chance of winning some money in the short run because the odds are so close. Other people are attracted to the game because it is so easy to get an advantage over the house.

Aside from the numbers, it’s also a very fun game to play. It gives people a feeling of being in control because they get to make all the decisions that affect the outcome of the hand. It’s also a very social game where the players get to have fun with each other and can “team up” against the dealer or share the pain when the dealer beats everyone. There are dozens of reason why people love this game despite the fact that most of them always lose their money.

-Sonny-

 

[Bigslicker]

Well don't get me wrong, I love the game and somewhat like playing fake money versions online like the trainer that this site has. But it becomes almost comical to me how quickly I'll loose that $1000. It really makes me wonder, why am I not seeing these 50/50 odds that I hear so much about. I try to dismiss luck because, well wth does luck have to do with probability. Unfortunately blackjack isn't a very good game to play with friends (least in my experience) as we usually stick to regular poker games. So while part of me understands why people play it, the other part of me is just baffled. But that being said if everyone felt the way I do, then Vegas wouldn't exist at all I guess

 

[Sonny]

But it becomes almost comical to me how quickly I'll loose that $1000.

What if your luck had gone the other way? What if you had won $1000 several times? You'd probably still be playing right now, huh? :grin:

It really makes me wonder, why am I not seeing these 50/50 odds that I hear so much about.

It takes a while for the results to even out. Some days you'll have very good luck, other days you'll have terrible luck or anything in between. Part of the reason that people like the game so much is that you can spend a lot of time on the lucky side of things before your results start to come back around. Blackjack gives you a very good chance of being a winner which is why a lot of people have good experiences with it (for a little while).

-Sonny-

 

[callipygian]

A low house edge does not mean that you win very frequently. The house edge for blackjack is less than 1%, but you won't win 49.5% of the time - you'll win about 43% of the time (and lose 49% of the time, and tie about 7% of the time).

The reason that the house edge for blackjack is smaller than the loss minus win percentage is that you're more likely to win bigger amounts when you do win at blackjack - by doubling and splitting when you have good cards. You lose 1 bet more often than you win 1 bet, but you win a doubled bet more often than you lose a doubled bet.

When you play $100/hand with $1,000 total, you're playing with a much higher house edge than normal, because of the frequent scenarios where you should double or split, but can't because of insufficient funds. I suggest playing with $10 bets to avoid this scenario - your results should be (a) better, and (b) more realistic.

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

Last night my brother played $5 tables (doesn't count)...he played 19 hands and lost $85 dollars. That's 17 losses and 2 pushes (I don't think he double at all). So he went through $85 dollars at $5 bet and did not win one hand. Variation can be a bitch.

 

[Bigslicker]

I hope he got a few free drinks out of it at least

 

[EasyRhino]

Take video poker and blackjack, both have very low house advantages.

Blackjack's win/loss distribution is pretty much a perfect bell curve, you're almost as likely to win or lose over the medium or long term.

Video poker's distribution is "right tailed". Losses are the norm, with the occassional big payout due to a royal flush.

However, playing $100 with a $1000 starting bankroll leaves a high chance of busting quickly. It's only ten bets. A quick unlucky downdraft could clobber you. However, even if you stuck with that, and quit any time you either got up to $2k or lost it all, you'd still be at nearly 50/50.

 

[PrinceDragon]

A low house edge does not mean that you win very frequently. The house edge for blackjack is less than 1%, but you won't win 49.5% of the time - you'll win about 43% of the time (and lose 49% of the time, and tie about 7% of the time).
better, and (b) more realistic.

Mmmm...
43+49+7=???

Win=43%
Lose=48%
Tie=9%
these numbers looks better,don't they