I found an ace today!!

[Ferretnparrot]

Yo so today i got back in the flow, and was playing somewhere when i took advantage of something ive never seen before and only read about, and it worked!! and was totally awsome, and it made my day so ima share it with you all because im very proud of myself.

I dealt myself an ace!!

so like, this noobish dealer was removing the shoe from the discard tray in prep to shuffle, and while laying it on it side i momentarily caught a glance of an ace of hearts and a ten of diamonds right next to eachother, i immediatly locked onto them like a laser guided missile, i watched them as he moved them around breaking the shoe into multiple stacks and still had a good sight on them, then came the riffle, and i followed it into the new stack of cards he made, i grabbed the cut card from the guy that had it while he wasnt looking, and adjusting for the one other player at the table, i aimed for slightly above it by two or three cards. I threw down to three betting spots of 45 each hoping to catch it and also not having the confidence in myself to put a max bet on it, and sure enough , ploppy gets x, my first hand gets x, then ace hearts second hand, ten diamonds third hand, i ended up winning 2 of the three hands, It was the highlight of my day today

I just now caught that other post about how much to bet on an ace, should i really have thrown a max bet, even though i wasnt certain i would have caught it, and also that it would be on only one of my three hands.?

 

[Mimosine]

I just now caught that other post about how much to bet on an ace, should i really have thrown a max bet, even though i wasnt certain i would have caught it, and also that it would be on only one of my three hands.?

if you're not certain then no, you shouldn't bet your max. you should bet a specific fraction of your max based on expectation. spreading to 3 hands though was a good idea.

 

[zengrifter]

I dealt myself an ace!!

Even a blind squirrel...

I just now caught that other post about how much to bet on an ace, should i really have thrown a max bet, even though i wasnt certain i would have caught it, and also that it would be on only one of my three hands.?

Yes - three max bets (your usual max bets).

1. Lets say that you have a 1in6 chance of catching it.
2. Its worth 50%.
3. You have three hands.
4. Divide 50% by 6 = 8%
5 Divide 8% in half = 4% advantage.

4% is a lot bigger advantage than when you typically make your max bets counting.

Cape'ce? zg

 

[zengrifter]

Even a blind squirrel...

Yes - three max bets (your usual max bets).

1. Lets say that you have a 1in6 chance of catching it.
2. Its worth 50%.
3. You have three hands.
4. Divide 50% by 6 = 8%
5 Divide 8% in half = 4% advantage.

4% is a lot bigger advantage than when you typically make your max bets counting.

Did I explain that right? Or should we divide the 4% by three hands? zg

 

[EasyRhino]

Wait zg, you're not supposed to argue with yourself.

Anyway, you've got a 1/6 chance of getting an Ace on ONE hand out of three. So I'd call it a 50% bonus, divided by 6, divided by 3 (for each hand), and then reduced by whatever conservative kelly fraction you're using.

 

[zengrifter]

Wait zg, you're not supposed to argue with yourself.

Anyway, you've got a 1/6 chance of getting an Ace on ONE hand out of three. So I'd call it a 50% bonus, divided by 6, divided by 3 (for each hand), and then reduced by whatever conservative kelly fraction you're using.

Its still a max bet, yes? zg

 

[Sonny]

Extreme shuffle tracking?

Trying to predict an ace like this is very dangerous. Following a single card through the shuffle process is not very reliable. Not only do you have to visually follow that card through numerous riffles, strips and restacks (depending on the shuffle procedure) but you have to cut to the card with incredible accuracy. Even a slight mistake will put you at a big disadvantage. This is much different than traditional tracking, sequencing or steering. A much more reliable technique is to catch a glimpse of a card after the shuffle and cut to it. I would suggest that people start with more traditional techniques first.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Trying to predict an ace like this is very dangerous. Following a single card through the shuffle process is not very reliable. Not only do you have to visually follow that card through numerous riffles, strips and restacks (depending on the shuffle procedure) but you have to cut to the card with incredible accuracy. Even a slight mistake will put you at a big disadvantage. This is much different than traditional tracking, sequencing or steering. A much more reliable technique is to catch a glimpse of a card after the shuffle and cut to it. I would suggest that people start with more traditional techniques first.

Ace keycarding at 2Ds is easier than most of these other techniques.
I think a 1in5 chance of catching on 1of2 hands is realistic. zg

 

[Guynoire]

Ace keycarding at 2Ds is easier than most of these other techniques.
I think a 1in5 chance of catching on 1of2 hands is realistic. zg

Does that estimate take into account random luck? You have a 28% chance of catching an ace on any 4 random cards.

 

[zengrifter]

Does that estimate take into account random luck?

I don't know. zg

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Ace keycarding at 2Ds is easier than most of these other techniques.
I think a 1in5 chance of catching on 1of2 hands is realistic. zg

Agreed, most of the good games for sequencing I've seen have been DD. You can also sequence 6D, sometimes, for an advantage comparable to counting.

In DD, you can arrange your discards to boost the value of key cards. E.g., you have already keyed the 8S to an ace. You get the other 8S, and you have the choice of laying either a 10 or a 6 underneath it. You switch your cards to lay the 10 under it, and you have dramatically increased the value of that key card when you see it on the daughter shoe. Unfortunately it takes a little bit of sleight, because if you outright switch the order of your cards it will be obvious as all hell.

You would have loved it ZG, my last sequencing opportunity was at a DD game far above sea level, and I begged a dealer to give me one more round after the key card(s) and the cut card came out. Offered her tokes, and traded red for black.

One nice thing about sequencing shoe games is that a sequencer and a counter can work together and the advantages are somewhat additive.

 

[sagefr0g]

.......In DD, you can arrange your discards to boost the value of key cards. E.g., you have already keyed the 8S to an ace. ....

wow! learned something new! could just watch for lucrative little combinations as well i guess too.

 

[zengrifter]

In DD, you can arrange your discards to boost the value of key cards.

I have taken to just hitting or doubling AA with min-bet to create a super-keycard. I get a lot of looks and comments when I do. zg

 

[Ferretnparrot]

How about looking at it liek this, if you can steer one ace even if not cutting super accurate you can at least stear it somewhere to the top of the new stack such that it WILL be dealt within the first say 1 whole deck, and you play that one whole deck that you know has an extra ace, on average wont that give you enough of an edge to justify placing larger bets?

basically your just viewing the first 1 deck of the shoe as the average composition of a normal deck plus one ace

That seems liek a sound enough reason to raise a bet even if you dont knwo which hand it will come on being your first or 5th or whatever

 

[Sonny]

basically your just viewing the first 1 deck of the shoe as the average composition of a normal deck plus one ace

So you have a TC of +1 off the top until that ace comes out. You can raise your bet, but don't go crazy. After all, the dealer could get that ace which puts all of your hands at a 32% disadvantage.

Also, your EV will be higher if you only play one hand instead of spreading to multiple hands. If this is a one-shot chance then you might want to play multiple spots to increase your chances of getting the ace, but if this is an ongoing opportunity then you are probably better of sticking to one hand.

-Sonny-

 

[golfnut101]

I found a ...

So, you really this is gonna happen on a consistent basis ?

 

[Ferretnparrot]

So, you really this is gonna happen on a consistent basis ?

Not liek every shoe, and certainly not as it happened in the first situation i described, i mean if god ever interveined in my game, that was when he did it.

but i think most of us are playing for the long term here, and the long term is a kinda long so similer situations are bound to happen sometime, Now im planning on taking advantage of aces as they are clumped together early in a shoe and manipulating them the next shoe, how many times have you been playing a game and seen like 5 aces out on the table and thought, "man that sucks that all those aces just came out"

Now its going to be like "sweet deal now i got something goign for the next shoe"

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Orpheus in his Underwear

I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!

I found an ace today
'Neath the key card it did lay
Raised my bet and made them pay
'Til I emptied out the tray

I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!

Thought I found an ace one day
Raised my bet and caught a trey
And when you're first card's not an A
Four percent you'll give away

I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!
I found an ace today!

Tracking aces is a blast
But you can win or lose so fast
Size your bets with math and care
In case the riffle's off a hair!