I have done well with Basic strategy

[Jdesey]

yes, everyone on this board will tell you that you cannot win with basic strategy alone.. it just is not true. I have only recently moved over to card counting. To tell you the truth, it bores me and is alot of work.

It took me a long time and alot of losses to come out a winner with basic strategy. What I had to learn is to increase my bets on subsequent wins. But NOT doubling or something like that. My max press is 50% of the previous win.

Also, I had to learn to be very sensitive to winning streaks and to take a break when the END. This has been very important. I was always able to be at profit at some point in a session on a table. But I would ALWAYS grind it down to $0 and then usually losses. The key for me were win limits and loss limits and sticking to them.

something else I want to add is that I almost never see anyone at a table playing even close to perfect basic strategy and I almost never see anyone winning! I mean people who really should go get a book or at least a $2 strategy card.

just my two cents worth... good luck

 

[LeonShuffle]

My advice is to disregard the above post.

 

[Sonny]

yes, everyone on this board will tell you that you cannot win with basic strategy alone.. it just is not true.

It is certainly true that you might win playing BS alone, but you should not expect to. You might get lucky for a while but you cannot get an advantage using BS alone.

What I had to learn is to increase my bets on subsequent wins. But NOT doubling or something like that. My max press is 50% of the previous win.

This is just a mild version of a progression system. It suffers from the same problems as all other progression systems. It may work for a while but it will eventually fail. You should not expect to win using this system. Just read the sticky thread at the top of this forum for more information on why progression systems do not work.

Also, I had to learn to be very sensitive to winning streaks and to take a break when the END.

There is no way to predict winning/losing streaks. Any mistakes you make will cancel out the times that you are right. Betting on perceived "streaks" is just superstitious.

The key for me were win limits and loss limits and sticking to them.

Actually, I just started a thread a few hours ago that explains why using stop limits and win limits doesn’t work:

New link about setting "quit points" and "targets"


-Sonny-

 

[aslan]

I usually go to Atlantic City with a friend who plays only basic strategy. He also plays craps and slots. He wins nearly every trip. Still, there is no science to support his play, while there is science to support my play as a counter. I will never go back to playing for luck, which is essentially what he is doing, although he thinks he is a) managing his money, b) betting more when he is "due", c) quitting when the table gets cold, and all the other things you and I used to do in precounting days. I wouldn't go back to that for love or money (oh, well, maybe for money lol). Once you know you know what you're doing, anything less is simply not an option.

 

[Jdesey]

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

 

[Sonny]

I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session!

I could probably say the same thing. Maybe I won the first hand then lost the rest, but I was ahead at some point. Unfortunately, “some point” doesn’t really matter. The only thing that matters is “this point.”

The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

But how does temporarily stopping “protect” your winnings? What’s to stop you from losing them back the next time you play? What makes them safe from future losing sessions?

All those short sessions are going to add up to one big long session in the end. You’re going to end up with the same results as if you just played all of those sessions continuously. Save yourself the hassle and just play it out. The only session that really matters is the BIG one – your lifetime. You can’t expect to be lucky forever.

-Sonny-

 

[aslan]

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

How do you know when a streak is beginning? How do you know when to quit? I don't think there is any logical way to take advantage of these realities. Why do you think you're different? You said in every session you are always up at some point. Saturday I lost $700 in my first session and I was never ahead once. Later I lost $170 and I was never up in that session either. I have won about 35 times out of my last 40 sessions, but it wasn't because I knew when to quit. I just wanted you to know that you are on the road to ruin if you think you will always be up sometime in every session, because what are you going to do if you're not? Lose a bundle? What is your loss stop if you think you must be up at some point or other? If you know when streaks are beginning and when wins are peaking you are not a good card player, you are a fortune teller. Since I have no luck telling the future, I will continue playing the probabilities. If you can teach me to tell the future, I'm all ears.

 

[Jdesey]

I will do a test next week and report back in

I have thought about the comments you are all making and it is starting to make some sense to me. The main thing I will relate it to is craps. I have played more dice than any other game. I am a firm believer that dice have no memory, there are no hot/cold shooters and EVERY roll is independent of the last.

so, I should apply some of that same line of thought to Blackjack. What I think you are all saying is that just because I won or lost the last hand, it should have no influence on how I bet the next one. I must say that seems more logical than my other way of thinking.

so, it just so happens that I am going to be in Vegas thurs thru sun next week. To give this a far shot, I will play some sessions as straight flat betting and some with my "increase when I win" strategy. I am predicting that the straight betting will be more of a grind, but will show less swings in my bankroll.

 

[Mr. T]

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

I endorse what you said but agree we are not in the majority here.
You might like to follow the other thread Sonny posted and see the big arguement I am having there with him on this matter. As you play along go with what you are most comfortable and enjoyable for yourself.

 

[Jdesey]

thankx

finally someone who sees a possible other side.....

the math boys on this website quote their statistics and there is no denying the math. But what this fails to consider is the himan experience of gambling. When you intorduce people and sounds and lights and noise and the excitement of winning it changes everything.

Yes I said I would try some flat betting next week, but I will just about guarantee that I end up using a conservative progression on subsequent wins. I enjoy playing and to me there is more to the whole thing than just a bunch of mathmatical calculations.

I will continue to my own thing and betcha I end up winning.

oh yeah.. and for the card counters out there..... try denying this.... if the count is high, and we go 10X or even 15X believeing that we are do high cards on the draw... then doesn't the same apply for every player at the table? you say what is the point? well there is only two players I should be concerned with.. myself and the dealer! This is why I believe card counting is flawed... the dealer also is due a great hand!!

so which is crazier? going 10X or 15X becasue we are "due" to get good cards? or increasing my bet becasue I won the last hand?

 

[LeonShuffle]

This is why I believe card counting is flawed... the dealer also is due a great hand!!

Thank you and goodnight! Drive safely.

 

[bj bob]

oh yeah.. and for the card counters out there..... try denying this.... if the count is high, and we go 10X or even 15X believeing that we are do high cards on the draw... then doesn't the same apply for every player at the table? you say what is the point? well there is only two players I should be concerned with.. myself and the dealer! This is why I believe card counting is flawed... the dealer also is due a great hand!!

so which is crazier? going 10X or 15X becasue we are "due" to get good cards? or increasing my bet becasue I won the last hand?

1) As far as your first question: When the count is high you have exactly the same chance of winning as any of the other players at the table, BUT pprior to that hand being dealt you have a LARGE bet out, whereas the others have no guiding indicators to do the same. As far as being "due". the card counter has already recognized the initial process of the favorable advantage, i.e. a +TC. It's just like knowing that the football team you're betting on is already a TD ahead. Doesn't guarantee that they will always win the game, but it's a hell of an advantage in the long run.
2) As far as the dealer's probability of landing a good hand in a high count. Yes, you are also correct; however, his wins are LIMITED in that he can only win 100% on his BJ. You win 150%. If he is dealt the few remaining "stiff" cards(2-6) he has not the freedom to stand on 12-16. HE MUST HIT IT. If he happens to draw a 5/6 he can only take 100% of your original bet, on the other hand your 5/6 will result in a 200% x original bet.
If none of the above makes sense to you, you need to find another game where "streaks" are far more profitable e.g. roulette, big wheel.

 

[ihate17]

And more

1) As far as your first question: When the count is high you have exactly the same chance of winning as any of the other players at the table, BUT pprior to that hand being dealt you have a LARGE bet out, whereas the others have no guiding indicators to do the same. As far as being "due". the card counter has already recognized the initial process of the favorable advantage, i.e. a +TC. It's just like knowing that the football team you're betting on is already a TD ahead. Doesn't guarantee that they will always win the game, but it's a hell of an advantage in the long run.
2) As far as the dealer's probability of landing a good hand in a high count. Yes, you are also correct; however, his wins are LIMITED in that he can only win 100% on his BJ. You win 150%. If he is dealt the few remaining "stiff" cards(2-6) he has not the freedom to stand on 12-16. HE MUST HIT IT. If he happens to draw a 5/6 he can only take 100% of your original bet, on the other hand your 5/6 will result in a 200% x original bet.
If none of the above makes sense to you, you need to find another game where "streaks" are far more profitable e.g. roulette, big wheel.

All true and to add:
When you get a hand you can double, you are more likely to win in a high count.
When the count is high there will be more blackjacks dealt than in lower counts.
When the count is high and the dealer is showing a stiff, he is more likely to bust than in lower counts.
Surrendering in a high count is more valuable to you than surrendering in a low count.
Insurance becomes a good bet in a high enough count.

So the counter knows the count is high and he has these advantages when he places a large bet. No guarantees on any individual hand, but as stated by Bob the dealer does not get 150% on a natural, can not double, can not surrender and must hit his stiffs.

ihate17

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

yes, everyone on this board will tell you that you cannot win with basic strategy alone.. it just is not true. I have only recently moved over to card counting. To tell you the truth, it bores me and is alot of work.

It took me a long time and alot of losses to come out a winner with basic strategy. What I had to learn is to increase my bets on subsequent wins. But NOT doubling or something like that. My max press is 50% of the previous win.

Also, I had to learn to be very sensitive to winning streaks and to take a break when the END. This has been very important. I was always able to be at profit at some point in a session on a table. But I would ALWAYS grind it down to $0 and then usually losses. The key for me were win limits and loss limits and sticking to them.

something else I want to add is that I almost never see anyone at a table playing even close to perfect basic strategy and I almost never see anyone winning! I mean people who really should go get a book or at least a $2 strategy card.

just my two cents worth... good luck

is it me or has the amount of ploppies on here gone up? dude, why are you part of this forum if you dont believe in anything we say? think about it..
yes, card counting and blackjack bores me a little too, but you have to stick with it if you want to win money.. i prefer video poker, and that is a huge flaw of mine, but if you want to win, you have to count cards and play blackjack; if you just want to have fun, then thats fine, just play PERFECT basic strategy, and dont bet more than you can afford to lose.. in about 100 hours of playing $3 blackjack, i broke even, but the entire time that was happening, i sure as hell wasnt thinking that i am on to something, but rather that i am lucky to be even, and it was a good run while it lasted, but now that table minimums are up to $10, i need to start counting, as i cant afford to play $10 blackjack without counting..

I did not say this thread would be popular.. and frankly I could care less. This is just my experience, nothing else. Yes, I have won as well playing basic strategy and flat betting. Taking every opportunity to split and double when I can. I have also lost big time with positive progressions. That was when I was crazy enough to press my entire winnings 2 3 4 times or more.

I do believe in streaks, there is no denying that they happen. Look at every casino game there is. Bacarrat and Roulette are great examples. I have seen 13 or more Banker/Player wins in Bacarrat at least 5 times this year. God help you if you were betting against that.

As I said before,,, this is just my experience and my opinion. I will also restate that I ALWAYS am ahead at some point in every session! The key is to take a break and protect those profits.

gambling IS about streaks, but guess what? it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict them! and no, dont respond with "but if you found a way, wouldnt you use it", because you havent found a way, as there is no way.. win/loss stop limits DO "work", but they dont make you money, they just make it so you have tons of small wins and one huge loss.. in the end, it doesnt matter if you played 10 sessions of 100 hands each, or 5 sessions of 200 hands each, it will all amount to the same

I have thought about the comments you are all making and it is starting to make some sense to me. The main thing I will relate it to is craps. I have played more dice than any other game. I am a firm believer that dice have no memory, there are no hot/cold shooters and EVERY roll is independent of the last.

so, I should apply some of that same line of thought to Blackjack. What I think you are all saying is that just because I won or lost the last hand, it should have no influence on how I bet the next one. I must say that seems more logical than my other way of thinking.

so, it just so happens that I am going to be in Vegas thurs thru sun next week. To give this a far shot, I will play some sessions as straight flat betting and some with my "increase when I win" strategy. I am predicting that the straight betting will be more of a grind, but will show less swings in my bankroll.

wait, so your die-hard "**** card counters, im right" attitude is diminishing? fyi, you could play 100 hours and it would prove NOTHING, unless you were using a system so bad that it got you 4+ standard deviations away from where you would normally be using basic strategy.. you cant just be like "hey guys, hold on, the casino is down the road from me, im gonna go play 10 hands and see if my system works".. i dont even think it is reasonable to assume a year would be enuf time to prove anything

 

[shadroch]

Mr Pot,meet Mr Kettle.

 

[The Stork]

My goodness

Playing for the longrun having enough bankroll sustains us with a win and I can care less if I lose or win the next hand. But playing a higher bet because you lost or won the last one makes absolutely no sense. I am not really understanding what and why we give this here still attention.

It is kindergarten blackjack.

The Stork:whip:

 

[Jdesey]

Let's just see it in the real world

When I started this thread it was an attempt to shed some light on REAL WORLD experience.

This is in the Voodoo board so we can be a little crazy here.

the thread has 2 issues that have been discussed.

1. Have you won with basic strategy and increasing your bets along the way?

2. who is crazier... the progressive bettor or the card counter who may go to 10X or even 15X, when everyone INCLUDING THE DEALER has a favorable hand coming up?


I will play over 60 hours of BJ this week in Vegas.. I plan to play alot of flat betting the first day and then, IF I AM AHEAD, I will either raise my flat bet and/or progress by adding a LITTLE as I win previous hands.

 

[Sonny]

2. who is crazier... the progressive bettor or the card counter who may go to 10X or even 15X, when everyone INCLUDING THE DEALER has a favorable hand coming up?

Easy answer: The guy who is expecting favorable hands is less crazy than the guy who has no idea what to expect. The guy who raises his bets when he is at a disadvantage will do worse than the guy who raises his bets (or only plays) when he has the advantage. It’s very simple to understand. The guy with the disadvantage will lose more money than he wins while the guy with the advantage will win more money than he loses.

I will play over 60 hours of BJ this week in Vegas.. I plan to play alot of flat betting the first day and then, IF I AM AHEAD, I will either raise my flat bet and/or progress by adding a LITTLE as I win previous hands.

That sounds like a very safe plan. There’s a good chance that you won’t lose much money, and about a 37% chance you'll actually win. Have fun and enjoy the comps. Just don’t expect to do any better than the thousands of other people doing the same thing.

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

I will not comment on who is crazier.
But I will comment on who is mathmaticaly correct.
Any number of computer simulations will show that someone who accurately spreads his bet according to the count will end up ahead in the long run.
I'm not aware of any such results for any progression system that can make such a claim.Nor for flat betting.

 

[Jdesey]

thankx guys

yeah,, I know there is no beating the math... I just hate counting cards, it is WORK!

I will say that when I just flat bet it is alot less to keep up with. Just bet $15 ,$20, $25 or whatever...

I will definetlty report in after sunday when I get back from Vegas

One quick question,,, I almost hate to ask....

is there any easier way to maybe keep a "casual count" vs. doing the +1, 0, -1 thing with every card???