I have had players tell me they are card counters!

[Cardcounter]

When I was dealing a lot of times players will say to me that they are card counters. So I watch their play and I see them make basic stragedy mistakes "not index deviations either" and I see them bet against the count and I know that they are not really card counters or if they think that they are losers. I tell them yeah right and I completely ignore them telling me that they are card counters.

One time someone in the pit was discusing somebody elses wild bets he had a about a 10 to 1 bet spread and I told the pit crew that he was betting against the count and on top of that he was making basic stragedy mistakes. The pit check the mind play machines and that was the case his disadvantage was about 8.8% which I also predicted. I said that he was playing with an 8% disadvantage of the top of my head.

 

[Kasi]

When I was dealing a lot of times players will say to me that they are card counters.

If they tell you, they aren't lol.

Kudoes to you if u can maintain the count while dealing with all of the distractions of dealing.

Where were they using Mindplay and are they still?

 

[positiveEV]

I told the pit crew that he was betting against the count and on top of that he was making basic stragedy mistakes.

Isn't it like telling them you count cards

 

[Dyepaintball12]

1) He is dealing, it doesn't matter if he is counting or not. He isnt taking money from the casino.

2) Dealers are sometimes taught/learn to count so they can detect counters and shuffle when the count goes positive.


David

 

[ihate17]

figuring this out

If you are a counter, the upside of your telling the dealer appears to be 0, but there may be a hidden upside.

If you are not a counter, the upside of your telling the dealer appears to be 0, but there may be a hidden upside.

The hidden upside
The guy is hoping to get backroomed, beat up and win a huge lawsuit.
The guy thinks this will impress the lady sitting next to him.
He is counting but playing poorly and waiting to signal in the BP.
John Patrick taught him everything he knows about blackjack (upside for the casino).

Then there are all the fantasy explainations.
He is just a guy who is completely full of it.
He goes into a fantasy dream state whenever he sits at a blackjack table, thinks he is Ken Uston (I know a guy who sits at mini-bac tables and thinks he is James Bond, he is a loser also.) and then drops his cash quickly.

Finally, there are generally no real reasons to tell the truth to a dealer. So cardcounters say they are not cardcounters and non cardcounters say they count. Makes sense to me (and only me).

ihate17

 

[Kasi]

The pit check the mind play machines and that was the case his disadvantage was about 8.8%

Just curious, what TC gives rise to an 8.8% disadvantage? Was this a single-deck game?

I mean given that each +TC might garner, say, an extra 0.5%, True Counts of like +18 don't come around every day.

Does each negative TC create more of a disadvantage than it's + counterpart?

 

[ihate17]

Kasi, you are thinking basic strategy or counting player

Just curious, what TC gives rise to an 8.8% disadvantage? Was this a single-deck game?

I mean given that each +TC might garner, say, an extra 0.5%, True Counts of like +18 don't come around every day.

Does each negative TC create more of a disadvantage than it's + counterpart?

What LTC is talking about has nothing to do with counting or bs exactly but has to do with how an individual player (a very bad player in this case plays).
Let us say the game LTC deals has a house edge of .44%, single deck, which by the way is a game he does deal. That is the house edge against the basic strategy player. Now say that player is so bad that he is doing things like doubling 16 vs 10, bets minimum when the count is high and maximum when the count is highly negative. Now have a machine, Mindplay, that can accumulate all that data and tell the casino just how much money they should be able to win from this player. That is what you have at Chrystal Bay where LTC is dealing.
The house would generally use the pit to evaluate a player and the pit would, depending upon the system they use, give his bosses an idea if the player is a real fish, a decent player, a basic strategy player or someone who might have an edge. Mindplay knowing every cent you bet in every hand and what the count was during that hand and how you played that hand, can give a much better evaluation, though I did not know it gave exact percentages but I am not surprised.
So where you might have a 1% or higher edge, the bs player a .44% disadvantage, a real real bad player might be at an 8.8% disadvantage (amazingly bad player). Since the casino expects to make between 2-3% on blackjack when dealing a game with a .5% edge, it is always done and it is done because the vast majority of players play at that kind of deficit.

ihate17

 

[Kasi]

a real real bad player might be at an 8.8% disadvantage (amazingly bad player). ihate17

Thanks. I see what you mean. Me bad.

Amazingly bad doesn't even begin to describe it. I don't think I can imagine BS errors causing a -0.088 HA.

It's so bad it makes me wonder whether the mindplay machine isn't maybe just measuring his actual payback? Like he's bet $1000 and he's won $912 for an 8.8% loss?

Just because in this session he happens to be betting big in negative counts and vice-versa doesn't mean that next time it won't be reversed. I can't see how the machine would just assume he's a really bad counter who would continue to place bets like that. I can see how the machine might track bets to True Counts to identify counters once it established a correlation but it just seems like alot for a machine to figure out the "pure" effect of deviating from BS.

So I guess you're saying all perfect non-counting BS players, whether they happened to win or lose alot, regardless of how much they bet in whatever counts, would all be measured by Mindplay at the same -0.44%?

Whatever, but what an evil machine either way. I hope it's no longer there.

 

[ihate17]

You might be right

Kasi

I really do not know if MIndplay was measuring his session results or what the casino can expect to win from him. As you said that 8.8% might have been the session results but I do believe that a few players are that bad.
I do know that Mindplay is evil and has been used to cheat players. The machines are still there and also at El Dorado in Reno.

Some counters, including myself, did very well against Mindplay when it was at the Hilton in Vegas. The history of Mindplay at the Hilton I sometimes refer to as casino suicide.

ihate17

 

[Kasi]

Kasi

I really do not know if MIndplay was measuring his session results or what the casino can expect to win from him. As you said that 8.8% might have been the session results but I do believe that a few players are that bad.
I do know that Mindplay is evil and has been used to cheat players. The machines are still there and also at El Dorado in Reno.

Some counters, including myself, did very well against Mindplay when it was at the Hilton in Vegas. The history of Mindplay at the Hilton I sometimes refer to as casino suicide.

ihate17

Fair enuf. Thx.

It is evil.

 

[Cardcounter]

Analazing mistakes!

The player that had 8.8 disadvantage made a lot of basic stragedy mistakes. A lot of uneducated players think it is more important to hit against a 10 rather than Ace or a 7. They will stand on stiff vs 7 and Aces these cause the player to lose fast. He also would not hit out a soft 17 sometimes an absolute must! On a count of less than soft 17 and doubling was not allowed I told him that he had to hit because he had nothing to lose. Meaning he could not make his hand any worse than it was. In my opinion he had less of an understanding of the game than the average player. Yes the game was on a single deck!

I would say that the average player could be playing with a disadvantage of 5%. The average player will misplay some of his stiffs especially against cards of like 7 where they have the most to gain from playing it right and play basic stragedy against a 10 where it will only help them vary little. They will also misplay hands like soft 18.

 

[EasyRhino]

The Mindplay box must have thought that Mr. 8.8% was setting fire to a $100 bill after each shuffle.

Maybe a pagan sacrifice to the flow of the cards?

 

[Kasi]

The Mindplay box must have thought that Mr. 8.8% was setting fire to a $100 bill after each shuffle.

:grin:

 

[Cardcounter]

Wynn a target for high end card counters?

At the Wynn Casino the pit boss are in on the tips. My thoughts are they might be more hesitant to kick out a player who was tipping. If there was good card counter who was a tipper do you think that they could count cards at the Wynn playing at high stakes tables that go from $500-$10,000 a hand and get away with it? Of course this card counter would have to be well finiced with limits like that!

 

[ihate17]

The problem with your idea

At the Wynn Casino the pit boss are in on the tips. My thoughts are they might be more hesitant to kick out a player who was tipping. If there was good card counter who was a tipper do you think that they could count cards at the Wynn playing at high stakes tables that go from $500-$10,000 a hand and get away with it? Of course this card counter would have to be well finiced with limits like that!

When a cardcounter with a $10,000 high bet has a big winning session there is a good possibility that someone higher up than a pit will be reviewing the tapes of the play. If they then determine he was a counter and the pit should have known, those pits will have a work problem. Also the eye is not part of the toke pool. More likely a small time counter can get away with stuff.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

Let's say a fairly high-end AP has an EV of $200/hr. Let's say the guy is a George, and tips away $50/hr.

The floormen at the Wynn are going to be seeing something like 10% of that $50/hr, divided up with all of the other floor supervisors working during that 24 hr period.

If it was a pit critter, I wouldn't let an extra dollar an hour in wages stop me from nabbing an AP throwing $10,000 on the table.

... I'd try to be friendly about it, of course.

 

[Cardcounter]

It's not there money!

The Casino's money is not the pit crews money. Besides kicking off a losing player that could bet $10,000 a hand could cost the casino way more money. The pit crew probably doesn't want to kick out people who bet big money.

 

[ihate17]

The guys a good counter

The Casino's money is not the pit crews money. Besides kicking off a losing player that could bet $10,000 a hand could cost the casino way more money. The pit crew probably doesn't want to kick out people who bet big money.

The decision to toss a $10,000 player for counting will never be made by just the pit crew! Ever! Not even the pit boss, that is more power than the casino is willing to give these overdressed, cocktail waitress watchers of blackjack games. No, the table game manager, the surviellance manager and perhaps even the operations manager will have a say in this.
Even if the pit crew wanted to keep this guy, you do not hide a ten grand player from the eye or the shift manager. He can not fall under the radar, he is the main blimp on their radar screen.

ihate17

 

[CarlB]

MIT team member said 95% of card counter lose.

MIT team member said 95% of card counter lose ( might be an exagateration ). I take that to mean that most people that say they are card counters really are not. How can this be? I am still trying to understand. Now a dealer that can do all they have to do and still count cards without making a mistake. I am still trying to understand that also.


Can anyone smarter than me explain this to me?

Carl

 

[ihate17]

Counting is the easy part

MIT team member said 95% of card counter lose ( might be an exagateration ). I take that to mean that most people that say they are card counters really are not. How can this be? I am still trying to understand. Now a dealer that can do all they have to do and still count cards without making a mistake. I am still trying to understand that also.


Can anyone smarter than me explain this to me?

Carl

Carl

I would not guess 95% but would bet that more than 75% of the people who try to be counters fail. The counting is easy, the rest can be hard.

Failure to play good games. I see wannabee counters playing games with either poor rules or bad pen or even both.

Failure to put the big bets out there, even when they are kicking your butt.
This can have an everlasting effect causing a counter to fail to spread properly in fear that the butt kicking will repeat itself.

Failure to go unnoticed. Being obvious and getting flat betted, or backed off often.

Failure to understand his ROR and lose his bankroll.

Failure to have a proper sized bankroll for his bet spread.

Failure to have control. You lose a bunch of big bets and now steam trying to get your money back in a hand or two.

Learning to glance at a table for a second and adjust your count while talking to the pit, cocktail waitress or another player. Can not do this? You are subject to counting errors

You also have people who have done what I consider ridiculous, learned a counting system but never learned basic strategy.

Make one or a few of these kind of errors and you will be walking around saying that counting just does not work, and you will be right. Counting by itself, does not work.

Dealers who can watch the bets, deal the cards and count.
I do not think this is all that remarkable but in fact there is only a small percentage of dealers who actually do count. If you think about it, an experienced cardcounter only need glance at a table while holding a conversation to adjust his count, figure an idice to BS and figure his next bet. Perhaps doing just as much as that dealer or more. I do not think either the counter or counting dealer just can learn this at home and perhaps some can never do it. But after several years of counting it has all become natural for me and I think that the dealer doing this for years just can not help but keep the count while dealing cards.

ihate17