Lets say I have an acquaintance that bets big, lets say average bet is $500 and he never takes insurance. Lets say I flat bet $5 every hand but insure his hand for the average $250 when the count calls for it (using 10's count). would I be playing a + EV game? What should I expect to average per hour over 1,000 hours? Lets say it is a 6 deck game with 1.5 decks cut off and lets say -.4 expectation to the BS player. Thanks.
Insurance/Scheme Question
- Thread starter SammyBoy
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>Lets say I have an acquaintance that bets big, lets say average bet is $500 and he never takes insurance. Lets say I flat bet $5 every hand but insure his hand for the average $250 when the count calls for it (using 10's count). would I be playing a + EV game?
Good question. The real question is if you have the bankroll for a $250 max bet at the borderline count.
For example, using the Tens Count, when the count is +4 (single deck), the game is even. Don't take the bet. When it is +5 then (e.g.) there are 16 tens in the deck and 31 non-tens. Thus you are getting 2-1 for a bet that is 31-16. Out of every 47 bets, you will lose 31 of them (-31x1 unit) and win 16 (win 16x2 units = 32) for a win of 1 unit. Thus for every 47 times you make this bet, you win 48 units, for a edge of 2.18% over the house. This roughly corresponds to the edge for a max bet. So if your NORMAL max bet is $250, then sure, take insurance for $250. On the other hand, when the Tens Count is +6, you have (e.g.) are getting 2-1 for a bet that is 30-16, for an edge of about 4.34% over the house. That is equivalent to a Hi-Lo true count edge when the TC is about 10 or so. Almost anyone with a 10K bankroll or hgher could afford the $250 in the longrun with this kind of edge.
>What should I expect to average per hour over 1,000 hours?
Wong gives (see page 54) a win rate of about $15 per hour if you play a 10's count in addition to everything else (I think I am reading this box correctly). That is with a $100 max bet. With a $250 max bet, I suppose you are looking at a win rate of about $35-$40 per hour on the insurance, and a loss rate of about $2 per hour on the $5 hands you are playing. This is VERY APPROXIMATE.
>Lets say it is a 6 deck game with 1.5 decks cut off and lets say -.4 expectation to the BS player. Thanks.
Naahh, I just feel like roughing it for the single deck game
--Mayor
Good question. The real question is if you have the bankroll for a $250 max bet at the borderline count.
For example, using the Tens Count, when the count is +4 (single deck), the game is even. Don't take the bet. When it is +5 then (e.g.) there are 16 tens in the deck and 31 non-tens. Thus you are getting 2-1 for a bet that is 31-16. Out of every 47 bets, you will lose 31 of them (-31x1 unit) and win 16 (win 16x2 units = 32) for a win of 1 unit. Thus for every 47 times you make this bet, you win 48 units, for a edge of 2.18% over the house. This roughly corresponds to the edge for a max bet. So if your NORMAL max bet is $250, then sure, take insurance for $250. On the other hand, when the Tens Count is +6, you have (e.g.) are getting 2-1 for a bet that is 30-16, for an edge of about 4.34% over the house. That is equivalent to a Hi-Lo true count edge when the TC is about 10 or so. Almost anyone with a 10K bankroll or hgher could afford the $250 in the longrun with this kind of edge.
>What should I expect to average per hour over 1,000 hours?
Wong gives (see page 54) a win rate of about $15 per hour if you play a 10's count in addition to everything else (I think I am reading this box correctly). That is with a $100 max bet. With a $250 max bet, I suppose you are looking at a win rate of about $35-$40 per hour on the insurance, and a loss rate of about $2 per hour on the $5 hands you are playing. This is VERY APPROXIMATE.
>Lets say it is a 6 deck game with 1.5 decks cut off and lets say -.4 expectation to the BS player. Thanks.
Naahh, I just feel like roughing it for the single deck game
--Mayor