Does anyone know what the success rate should be for insurance? At least in the short run I am insuring successfully less than 50%. I've played 550 hands, insured 11 times and the dealer had BJ only 3 of those times. I'm taking insurance only when the count is +1 or above and this is a single deck game. I realize 550 hands is a very small sample, but what should my success rate be when taking insurance? Thanks in advance.
Insurance???
- Thread starter SammyBoy
- Start date
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
"Does anyone know what the success rate should be for insurance? At least in the short run I am insuring successfully less than 50%. I've played 550 hands, insured 11 times and the dealer had BJ only 3 of those times. I'm taking insurance only when the count is +1 or above and this is a single deck game. I realize 550 hands is a very small sample, but what should my success rate be when taking insurance? Thanks in advance."
A small sample yes, but I think you are taking insurance too early. You should consult your tables to find what index # you should be taking insurance. For most single level systems the # is +2 for single deck, +3 for multi. At that point it becomes a positive play, and is worth about 30% of all deviations from basic strategy based on index numbers. This is why it is first on the table, followed by 16 v 10, etc.
A small sample yes, but I think you are taking insurance too early. You should consult your tables to find what index # you should be taking insurance. For most single level systems the # is +2 for single deck, +3 for multi. At that point it becomes a positive play, and is worth about 30% of all deviations from basic strategy based on index numbers. This is why it is first on the table, followed by 16 v 10, etc.
Hm, let me attempt some very simple math. Insurance is a sidebet on whether the hole card is a 10 or not. If it is you win 1 unit if not you lose .5. A deck of 52 cards has 16 tens and 36 non-tens. If you were to just bet whether a card is a ten or not you'd win 16 times 1 unit (16 units) and lose 36 times a half a unit (18 units). This is why insurance is a bad bet as far as the basic strategy player is concerned. Let's force the count (using HiLo) to be 1TC by the dealer's A and say 5,6 for you. This would leave the 16 tens and 33 non tens left in the deck. We'd then win 16 units and lose 33 half units or 16.5. Sorry, that's still not good enough. 2TC as per Rob would do it though... Hope this is a valid explanation...
Z
Z
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Very Valid!
Nice and simple explanation Z.
Nice and simple explanation Z.
It is reasonable to lose 2 insurance bets for every one you win. After all, it pays 2-1. Thus, out of 12, you "ought" to win 4. 3 is close enough.
But, you are insuring at too low a count. Even for single deck, the count has to be more like 1.7 or so. Round it up to 2.
On the first hand out of a fresh deck, dealer shows an Ace, you are playing two hands.
If you have no T's in either hand, then there are 47 remaining cards, 16 of which are T's, and 31 are non-T's. The odds are 31-16, but insurance pays 32-16 (2-1). Good for you!
If you have 1 T in one of the two hands, then there are 47 remaining cards, and 15 are T's and 32 are non-T's. Then the odds are 32-15 with you as the dog, but insurance only pays 30-15 (2-1). Bad for you!
But, you are insuring at too low a count. Even for single deck, the count has to be more like 1.7 or so. Round it up to 2.
On the first hand out of a fresh deck, dealer shows an Ace, you are playing two hands.
If you have no T's in either hand, then there are 47 remaining cards, 16 of which are T's, and 31 are non-T's. The odds are 31-16, but insurance pays 32-16 (2-1). Good for you!
If you have 1 T in one of the two hands, then there are 47 remaining cards, and 15 are T's and 32 are non-T's. Then the odds are 32-15 with you as the dog, but insurance only pays 30-15 (2-1). Bad for you!
Abraham de Moivre
Well-Known Member
You are not reading it wrong --- It is wrong.
For some reason, the HiLo H17 1 Deck numbers the Mayor gives suck.
Here are good numbers:
Insurance +2
9 V. 2 +1
9 V. 7 +3
10 V. A +3
10 V. T +4
11 V. A -2
12 V. 2 +3
12 V. 3 +2
12 V. 4 0
12 V. 5 -2
12 V. 6 -3
13 V. 2 -1
13 V. 3 -2
15 V. T +5
16 V. 9 +5
16 V. T +1
T-T V.5 +5
T-T V.6 +4 (and since you know these two,
double down on soft 20 vs 5 & 6 at the same values: +5 & +4)
Also these are useful:
A-8 V.4 +2
A-8 V.5 +1
A-8 V.6 -1
For some reason, the HiLo H17 1 Deck numbers the Mayor gives suck.
Here are good numbers:
Insurance +2
9 V. 2 +1
9 V. 7 +3
10 V. A +3
10 V. T +4
11 V. A -2
12 V. 2 +3
12 V. 3 +2
12 V. 4 0
12 V. 5 -2
12 V. 6 -3
13 V. 2 -1
13 V. 3 -2
15 V. T +5
16 V. 9 +5
16 V. T +1
T-T V.5 +5
T-T V.6 +4 (and since you know these two,
double down on soft 20 vs 5 & 6 at the same values: +5 & +4)
Also these are useful:
A-8 V.4 +2
A-8 V.5 +1
A-8 V.6 -1
"At that point it becomes a positive play, and is worth about 30% of all deviations from basic strategy based on index
numbers. This is why it is first on the table, followed by 16 v 10, etc. "
I thought 16 v 10 started at TC of 0< and insurance @ +3< from Ill 18 ??
numbers. This is why it is first on the table, followed by 16 v 10, etc. "
I thought 16 v 10 started at TC of 0< and insurance @ +3< from Ill 18 ??
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Yes, Insurance at +3 for multi deck is the first indice with the highest gain, then 16 v 10 up at anything above 0, etc. The Ill 18 stacks these variances in the order of the gain they will give you, so one should learn them in that order. Afterwards, I would suggest mixing them up like the Mayor does to perfect your skills.