Insuring Blackjack on ENHC

[matt21]

I wanted to double-check my understanding of this.

In my casinos the rules are as follows:

If player has $100 bet and gets blackjack AND dealer shows A
then:

either player gets paid $100 and hand is finished
player lets dealer take card -
if dealer gets blackjack also, then player keeps $100 bet but gets no reward
if dealer does not get blackjack, then players keeps $100 and gets paid $150

thus, the EV is as follows

option 1 - taking insurance
EV = $100 (guaranteed)

option 2 - not taking insurance
P(dealer has blackjack) = 4/13 ; return is $0
P(dealer <> blackjack) = 9/13 ; return is $150
thus EV = (4/13*$0) + (9/13*$150) = $103.84

Thus EV for option 2 is $3.84 higher than option 1

However the probability of dealer having blackjack increases to more than 4/13 as true count gets positive - thus the EV for option 2 eventually decreases to less than $100 - my understanding is that the player should take insurance if true count is +3 or higher (using Hi-Low).

Could someone comment whether I have understood this correctly?

 

[Sonny]

...my understanding is that the player should take insurance if true count is +3 or higher (using Hi-Low).

That is correct. Insurance is the most profitable index play so be sure to use it every chance you get. There is more information about other index plays in the Freqently Asked Questions thread.

-Sonny-