Into the fold...First Questions

[Casual Counter]

Hi all,

I've been lurking for a few months and thought it was finally time to reveal myself and ask my first questions. I've been enjoying the discussions.

I'm a counting newb, using KO Preferred. I've had two trips (Vegas) since I began, one +32 units and one -52. I am a casual player, with no ambition to be a pro. I've been playing BS for years and finally decided to take it to the next level. I'm doing it because it's stimulating and since I love to play, I may as well reverse or at least eliminate the house edge. The Wife and I trek to Vegas between 3 and 6 times a year.

I'm heading to Vegas again in the near future. I'm a little worried about spreading. When I was a straight BS player, I flat bet. The past two trips I spread 1-3 green at 2-decker pitch games (at Mindplay tables, no less) I know there is little or no EV with that spread, but I was unwilling to be more aggressive yet. Now that I'm spreading, my bankroll no longer supports Green play. So I'm going to move back to Red and I'm planning to spread 1-10 on 6-deckers. Herein...the questions:

I notice in practicing w/ 6 decks that the count rarely gets high enough to raise your bet (I'm using the KO version of 1-10 Kelley for 6 decks) in the first half of the shoe. How can I possibly cover this style of betting from the pit? I bet flat minimum for 1/2 the shoe then suddenly leap up to 4, 6, or 8 chips. I know that I could wong in, but I will be playing some longer sessions with my Wife (built-in cover?) where that won't be an option. I'm better at wonging out than in, anyway. I'm also not convinced that Wonging in isn't equally as obvious as suddenly jumping your bet. I'll probably be playing $10 tables, so effectively spreading 2-10, with 2 off top.

I would appreciate any advice on how to make my ramping less obvious. I have some ideas, but am curious to hear how you experienced guys handle it.

I also have a whole clumping can of worms I want to open up with you guys, but I'll hold that off for a shorter, future post. Thanks for your thoughts. I really enjoy reading this board.

 

[CC-Management]

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[The Mayor]

Welcome! I will do what I can to answer your questions.

>I'm a counting newb, using KO Preferred. I've had two trips (Vegas) since I began, one +32 units and one -52. I am a casual player, with no ambition to be a pro. I've been playing BS for years and finally decided to take it to the next level. I'm doing it because it's stimulating and since I love to play, I may as well reverse or at least eliminate the house edge. The Wife and I trek to Vegas between 3 and 6 times a year.

With this type of play, you should not "feel" the effects of the edge you have for several years. Think "500 hours" of play before you really notice -- without a doubt, that you have an edge. If you are getting 25 hours in per trip, and 2 trips per year, well, that's 10 years. This is the nature of the "long run." On the other hand, it is much nicer to be playing with an edge!

>I'm heading to Vegas again in the near future. I'm a little worried about spreading. When I was a straight BS player, I flat bet. The past two trips I spread 1-3 green at 2-decker pitch games (at Mindplay tables, no less) I know there is little or no EV with that spread, but I was unwilling to be more aggressive yet. Now that I'm spreading, my bankroll no longer supports Green play. So I'm going to move back to Red and I'm planning to spread 1-10 on 6-deckers. Herein...the questions:

Wow. This paragraphs says a lot! Without a spread, you are not playing a winning game. You have to be willing to put the money out when the count says to, and those are the times you are patiently waiting for, but also the times that you win or lose bundles. This is the reason for the game's high variance.

>I notice in practicing w/ 6 decks that the count rarely gets high enough to raise your bet (I'm using the KO version of 1-10 Kelley for 6 decks) in the first half of the shoe.

KO will not yield many early bets. KO tends to underestimate the count early and over estimate it late. That is the defect of the system. That said, it is still very good.

>How can I possibly cover this style of betting from the pit?

You can't. But if you are spreading 1-10 red, the pit won't care much any way. I routinely spread 30-1 at shoe games. You just have to limit your playing time in each casino. Get your game hat on, spread and play like you have to, and get ready for the other fun parts of advantage play: the cat and mouse game that haves you leaving when you get the first sniff of smoke.

>I bet flat minimum for 1/2 the shoe then suddenly leap up to 4, 6, or 8 chips. I know that I could wong in, but I will be playing some longer sessions with my Wife (built-in cover?) where that won't be an option.

If you are playing with your wife, don't worry about advantage play. You are there just to enjoy her company, unless you get her interested in beating the game as well, in which case you have the makings of a powerful team.

>I'm better at wonging out than in, anyway. I'm also not convinced that Wonging in isn't equally as obvious as suddenly jumping your bet.

No, wonging is virtually invisible to the pit and is very powerful.

>I'll probably be playing $10 tables, so effectively spreading 2-10, with 2 off top.

Then you are spreading 1-5, which is not enough to beat a dd game, let alone a shoe.

>I would appreciate any advice on how to make my ramping less obvious. I have some ideas, but am curious to hear how you experienced guys handle it.

I am not going to give you that advice. Just ramp like crazy and get some heat. Do it on purpose at a lesser known casino, just so you can see what it is like to get heat -- for example go to the Barbary Coast or the El Cortez and get yourself tossed. Do it, man! You just don't know until you've been there.

The idea is not to preplan cover, but to gain experience. As you gain experience you will know what to do.

But, finally, remember the most important rule: "Don't overbet your bankroll" -- and if you are someone who is not playing with an advantage, then the maximum bet is $0.

Get the experience of going for it and let us know how you do!

>I also have a whole clumping can of worms I want to open up with you guys, but I'll hold that off for a shorter, future post.

Please don't! There are enough really good ways of beating the game that really work, if you are interested in more advanced methods they are plentiful and powerful and tested -- clumping is none of these.

Good cards to you,

--Mayor

 

[Casual Counter]

Back from Vegas

Mayor,

Thanks for your response. I appreciate your encouragement.

The near future referred to in my previous post is now the recent past, to the tune of an 87 unit loss! Ouch. I have felt the bitch slap of variance.

The good news. I did successfully spread 1-10 the whole trip and drew no heat. The bad news: It seemed like any time I had my bet over 5 units I would get wildly smacked down.

Importantly, my faith is not shaken. I'm very confident in my mechanics and confident that variance was my downfall, not errors. I had not truly considered how bad the variance could be when you are losing 8 and 10 unit bets left and right. Also, the conditions were not great. Bad pen and always-full tables. I wonged out fairly aggressively.

I did not get any more aggressive than that, as you encouraged, but I had many good reasons not to on this trip. We'll see what future opportunities bring. But I remain a casual player, simply hoping to improve my edge during each short visit. It also makes the game a lot more fun.

Conditions: I played in the neo-standard strip game. 6D, DOA, DAS, H17, LSR. Cut off was almost always 2 decks. I found one dealer cutting off 1 ½, which, sadly enough, was exciting. I did play at one Mindplay table, just to see what would happen. But I received no heat at this or any other table.

Question: Mayor, you stated that, "...you are spreading 1-5, which is not enough to beat a dd game, let alone a shoe." The KO book has an EV table on page 90 that states that you can get a small edge on a DD game spreading 1-2 and a good edge spread 1-5 or higher. Can I ask why you disagree? While I understand most of the math involved with counting and EV I don't have nearly the skills some of you guys around here do, nor do I have any of the Sim s/w to sample these issues.

At our request, I will keep my clumping can of worms closed for now. Don't worry; it's not really that kind of clumping as faux-advantage play issue that I'm talking about, though. It was more of a cover play issue, but I found it so far, to be unnecessary. I am taking my time and gaining that experience that you mentioned.

Thanks again,
-CC