Is a quick and dirty adjustment for KO possible?

[aslan]

I love KO. It's easy and it gets the money. Sometimes, however, when I am in high plus counts, say +10 or +15, I think about the cautions that KO is an unbalanced system that "averages" the count. It might be off by some factor. I am wondering, in these high counts, does KO tend to be higher or lower than the true count? Does it depend on the number of decks remaining? There should be some easy way, easier than converting to true count, to eyeball close to the real value of the KO count. The same goes for negative counts. As I understand it, KO is only certifiably true at +4. Does any one have, or can anyone think of, a quick and dirty way to "ballpark" the true count above and below +4, but especially above because that's where the bet is ramping up?

 

[aslan]

In addition...

Let me add this. At +4 (KO pivot point) I should feel confident in betting the max amount of my spread, since +4KO should equal +4 true count. Should I feel just as confident anywhere above +4 that I should continue betting max? Likewise, should I feel confident at -4 (6-deck key count) that I should begin ramping up? That's why I'd like a simple quick and dirty check to ensure that I am on solid ground.

 

[EasyRhino]

At the pivot point (+4), you can be pretty confident that no matter what's going on, the count is pretty darn positive, and fairly reliable.

But the key count in a shoe game is a moving target. The first half of the shoe, it will have you betting too late. The last half, too early.

But once you get past the pivot, just go for it.

 

[21forme]

Anything above RC +4 is TC >+4, with any deck position. Find Mimosine's spreadsheet post (Sonny, please make it a sticky) and it will tell you how to do it. I adjust my bet spreading points based on the number of decks. For the most part, you are missing advantages in the first few decks, more so than overestimating your advantage later on (at least in 6D.)

 

[aslan]

At the pivot point (+4), you can be pretty confident that no matter what's going on, the count is pretty darn positive, and fairly reliable.

But the key count in a shoe game is a moving target. The first half of the shoe, it will have you betting too late. The last half, too early.

But once you get past the pivot, just go for it.

So, if there are no more than 2 decks gone in a 6 deck game, the advantage may have shifted in your advantage with out you knowing it if you are a couple of points below +4?

 

[21forme]

Using your example of 2 decks dealt in a 6D game, and an IRC of -20, you have an advantage and should already be ramping your bet at RC = -6, where the TC = +1.5

 

[aslan]

Using your example of 2 decks dealt in a 6D game, and an IRC of -20, you have an advantage and should already be ramping your bet at RC = -6, where the TC = +1.5

With True Count, do you begin ramping up as soon as you pass zero?

 

[ChefJJ]

With True Count, do you begin ramping up as soon as you pass zero?

This is just a general comment on the topic, not necessarily aimed at you, Aslan...but why would you bother with TC if you use KO? Why not just roll with Hi-Lo if you want to worry about that?

I must be missing something.

good luck

 

[21forme]

With True Count, do you begin ramping up as soon as you pass zero?

I'm not sure what you mean by zero. TC or RC?
TC - no. You're still at a disadvantage at TC zero. RC - depends on your IRC.

This is just a general comment on the topic, not necessarily aimed at you, Aslan...but why would you bother with TC if you use KO? Why not just roll with Hi-Lo if you want to worry about that?

I must be missing something.

For one thing, True KO has been shown to have a slightly higher EV than Hilo. For me, I use KO because I find it simple. I've gone through the RC/TC calculations and modified my betting ramp based on how many decks played as it relates to the RC. One thing I do NOT do is RC to TC calculations as the shoe progresses.

Recently, I played with a friend and we were tag-team wonging. It was interesting in that he uses a different count (not Hi-lo), so whenever he passed the count to me, I "upconverted" it back into a running count, based on how many decks were played. Whenver I passed a count to him, I convereted it to TC. Was kinda interesting...

 

[aslan]

This is just a general comment on the topic, not necessarily aimed at you, Aslan...but why would you bother with TC if you use KO? Why not just roll with Hi-Lo if you want to worry about that?

I must be missing something.

good luck

ChefJ

I really don't want to leave KO; it works for me and it's easy. Sometimes, I wonder, however, when the count starts going in a positive direction early in the shoe, "Should I get on board now even though it's below the key count, since KO underestimates the count early on?" So, I thought if there were some easy quick and dirty way to make a check here and there, I might be able to further enhance my winnings without leaving KO.

 

[aslan]

I'm not sure what you mean by zero. TC or RC?
TC - no. You're still at a disadvantage at TC zero. RC - depends on your IRC.




For one thing, True KO has been shown to have a slightly higher EV than Hilo. For me, I use KO because I find it simple. I've gone through the RC/TC calculations and modified my betting ramp based on how many decks played as it relates to the RC. One thing I do NOT do is RC to TC calculations as the shoe progresses.

Recently, I played with a friend and we were tag-team wonging. It was interesting in that he uses a different count (not Hi-lo), so whenever he passed the count to me, I "upconverted" it back into a running count, based on how many decks were played. Whenver I passed a count to him, I convereted it to TC. Was kinda interesting...

I meant when you pass zero using TC. Is that where the betting ramp begins?

Could you post your modified betting ramp that depends on how many decks have been played? I could probably do one myself based on KO to TC conversions, but you sure could make life easier for me if you could post it.

 

[ChefJJ]

ChefJ

I really don't want to leave KO; it works for me and it's easy. Sometimes, I wonder, however, when the count starts going in a positive direction early in the shoe, "Should I get on board now even though it's below the key count, since KO underestimates the count early on?" So, I thought if there were some easy quick and dirty way to make a check here and there, I might be able to further enhance my winnings without leaving KO.

Makes sense.

 

[21forme]

First, find Mimosine's spreadsheet. It's buried in a post somewhere...

Here's what I do, summed up in a nutshell.

6D:
IRC=-3. I follow the "fab fives" strategy as outlined in the book for play deviations and insurance (16v10 at +15, other indices and insurance at +20), with the following modifications:
The key count of +15 changes to...
+9 at 1D
+11 at 2D
+14 at 3D
+16 at 4D

I wong out at -5 at 1D, 0 at 2D, +5 at 3D


8D:
IRC=-7 (chosen so the above numbers still apply, with the following changes)
key count same as above for 1-4D, +18 at 5D
Pivot point=+25 (for other indices and insurance)
I wong out at -10 at 1D, -5 at 2D, 0 at 3D, +5 at 4D

I start ramping my bet at the key count. With these numbers, the key count is at TC=+1.5. The wong out points are at TC=-1.2. A few wong out points were slightly adjusted to make it easier to remember (multiple of 5.)

 

[aslan]

First, find Mimosine's spreadsheet. It's buried in a post somewhere...

Here's what I do, summed up in a nutshell.

6D:
IRC=-3. I follow the "fab fives" strategy as outlined in the book for play deviations and insurance (16v10 at +15, other indices and insurance at +20), with the following modifications:
The key count of +15 changes to...
+9 at 1D
+11 at 2D
+14 at 3D
+16 at 4D

I wong out at -5 at 1D, 0 at 2D, +5 at 3D


8D:
IRC=-7 (chosen so the above numbers still apply, with the following changes)
key count same as above for 1-4D, +18 at 5D
Pivot point=+25 (for other indices and insurance)
I wong out at -10 at 1D, -5 at 2D, 0 at 3D, +5 at 4D

I start ramping my bet at the key count. With these numbers, the key count is at TC=+1.5. The wong out points are at TC=-1.2. A few wong out points were slightly adjusted to make it easier to remember (multiple of 5.)

Thanks. I need to take some time to digest this. thanks again.

 

[LeonShuffle]

Or just switch to Red 7 and use the true edge method.

 

[aslan]

The key count of +15 changes to...
+9 at 1D
+11 at 2D
+14 at 3D
+16 at 4D

Since your IRC is -3, shouldn't your key count be +13 to begin with?

 

[21forme]

Since your IRC is -3, shouldn't your key count be +13 to begin with?

Technically, yes, but don't forget it all depends where you are in the deck. Also, if you go back to the KO book, you'll note they fudge the RC 1 or 2 at times for the "fab fives" to make the numbers easier to remember. IIRC, they ran a sim on the changes and found them insignificant.

 

[aslan]

Looking at the RC to TC chart, it seems like KO is consistently reaching max bet ahead of the TC (+5).

 

[aslan]

It would seem that using KO for 6-deck at IRC of -20, it would be more accurate to set KC at -8, -6, -4, and -1 for 1, 2, 3, and 4 decks dealt. Also, the pivot point should be set at +9, +8, +7, and +6 for 1, 2, 3, and 4 decks dealt. Beyond 4 decks dealt is unnecessary since the cards are seldom dealt past 4 1/2 decks. Does this seem like a proper interpretation of the RC to TC chart? This is not too hateful an addition to KO, which is already too simple for words.