ihate17 said:
The thing is that every casino is somewhat different.
I'll expand on this.
Some casinos would rather bar 10 lucky ploppies than let 1 card counter get through. Others would rather let 10 counters play than bar 1 lucky ploppy. If you're in the first type of joint (paranoid casinos), there's really nothing you can do to convince them to let you play long-term, because they'll bar you for winning whether you're good or not. Additionally, the first heat that you get will likely be severe (dealer change, shoulder tap, restriction to flat betting, etc.). If you're in the second type of joint (tolerant casinos), an act in which you create just enough ambiguity between lucky and good will let you play forever. Furthermore, the first heat you get will be really gentle - a friendly introduction from the pit boss, penetration cut, etc. My philosophy is to take the hint and don't push your luck.
A few years ago, I got what might be the gentlest backoff ever - the pit boss came over with an unsolicited comp ticket for the buffet, and said something to the effect of, "You've been playing for a while, why don't you get something to eat on us? Just sign up for a players card and we can hook you up right away." I took the hint and I cashed out immediately.
I am in agreement that heat is overrated, because bad players who end up aggressively hitting the paranoid casinos end up with an inflated opinion of their play, and make a lot of noise about getting barred here and barred there, when, honestly, most aren't AP's to begin with. However, I also think that good players tend to underestimate the gentle hints that the tolerant casinos give off, not considering it "heat" per se.