Is it time to increase my unit bet?

[21forme]

I don't have a dedicated bankroll, per se, as I have have a full-time job with a good, steady income. However, when I started playing regularly, about 6 months ago, I allocated 5K for my "play money," just to see how it would go, and it wouldn't be a big deal if it had evaporated. My play has gone well and now that BR is up to about 20K. I've been playing mostly a $25 unit, sometimes a $50 unit, using KO Preferred, with modifications to take advantage of opportunities early in the shoe that KO misses.

Is it time to increase to a $100 unit? I've had zero heat so far (all play in AC.) Would the increase bring more scrutiny? Comments re pros and cons appreciated. Thanks.

 

[EasyRhino]

With your current unit, what are your typical mix/max bets, and how much are you wonging?

If you were betting conservatively, the quadrupling your bankroll would definitely be in order (when my bankroll grew from $5k to $20k, I increased my max bets from $50 to $200).

However, if you're talking about having max bets up to $1000 or so, then it might be an unacceptably high risk of ruin.

Or let's put it this way: You'd be okay with losign $5k, but how would you feel if you lost $20k? Are you more aggressive because you're "playing with winnings", or less aggressive because losing that amount would wreck the level of play you prefer?

 

[21forme]

Now I'm spreading 1 to 10 and sometimes 1 to (2x8).

When wonging I follow the same scheme. If I wong in at the KO key count (TC=+1.5), I bet 2 units. If I wong in at the pivot point (TC=+4) I bet 10 units, with the unit being $25 or $50 depending on my mood and how I'm doing that day.

If I were to increase my unit to $100, then I would bet $1K when called for. The worst thing to do (and I made that mistake just once) is get spooked by a lot of money on the table and not follow the "rules." I did that once where I should have taken insurance, but didn't because I didn't want to put more money on the table. Guess what happened?

 

[EasyRhino]

Yeah, my play is normally pretty automatic with big bets out, just recently I had to take $150 worth of insurance, it sure felt a like a lot to me (I think I won 1 out of 2).

Anyway, it sounds like you're talking about currently having a max bet of $250, or two hands of ~$180... or up to double that if you're feeling frisky. I'd go to qfit.com, find the blackjack section, and check out some of the risk of ruin calculators, but I believe you've got a fairly high percentage ROR there, unless you're willing to continuously resize your bets downward as bankroll shrinks.

If you had max bets of $1000, you'd almost definitely be beyond double-Kelly-fraction, which means a guaranteed 100% risk of ruin unless you resize bets downward. (and betting 5% of your bankroll in one hand, you'd have to be doing recalculations every other hand). In other words, I'd qualify it as Wild-Ass Gambling.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

 

[RikaKazak]

no

and that's because 1.) high risk of ruin 2.) you've already admitted you made strategy changes because you're playing wiht scared money

 

[Kasi]

Well I'd agree with Riza.

Play another 6 months and win another 15K doing whatever u were doing. That wouldn't be bad would it? Maybe then nudge it up.

I'm guessing u may have been overbetting a 5K roll in the first place and maybe got fortunate.

As always, spend $100 on a sim and plug stuff in so u can answer your own question with the exact game, bet spread etc.

You might find you can change your unit size when wonging while maintaining the same ROR.