I'm now down for the year after getting off to a good start! I've had some really rough sessions the last few weeks. I'm playing a good single deck game with very good penetration and still getting killed. I'm very confident in my counting skills, but I'm getting really bad cards. When I do get that rare 20 the dealer has 20 or draws to 21. I'm getting very few blackjacks, only 3 in about 5 hours of play and the dealer also had blackjack on one of those. I'm beginning to wonder if the shuffle used by the casino I play in is hurting me. It seems like the cards are clumping. My last 3 sessions really have me scratching my head.
Its Getting Ugly
- Thread starter SammyBoy
- Start date
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
You know what you are doing by counting, betting, etc, but often it is the overlooked things that can kill you, and maybe you have spotted it already. You seem to think you are not getting the cards in a random fashion. Clumping is out of the question in a one deck game, and clumping itself is a four letter word. Maybe the dealer is a sharp and he is running you into the ground. Do you always end up with the same dealer? That is a reason that a play log has "Dealer" in it. Why do I always lose when Harry deals and do well when Sally deals?
I thought you were talking about the war with your message title "Its Getting Ugly."
"By the rivers of Babylon......"
I thought you were talking about the war with your message title "Its Getting Ugly."
"By the rivers of Babylon......"
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Then it is just the game. The cross hair falls at +1% advantage but anything can happen when you are playing. When we are winning we thing its skill and when we are not we think its ?? Have you changed the size of your bets since your BR took a hit? Your RoR is getting higher if you have not done so. Careful. We should make up a contract that once you start to play BJ seriously you have to go long run. Many a counter has found himself behind by a bunch of G's and thrown in the towel.
Everything means nothing if you don't intend to play for the long run.
Everything means nothing if you don't intend to play for the long run.
phantom007
Well-Known Member
AGREE!
If you are a decent Counter, and are developing "the cards are not falling my way mentality"...as most ALL of us "regulars" have, from time to time, then, quite simply, either:
(1) You are making mistakes...in Counting (rare), Indicies (common), and/or too many camifloge plays (intermediate). For example, for the last 2+ years, I have used AOII-+6/-6 for most of my SD/DD play. About 6 weeks ago, further study revealed that I had been making the WRONG play with 16 vs. Dealer 10 in most + Counts between +1 and +5.
(2) You have not played enough hands!
In your case, I suspect #2 is most likely. By your previous posts, you ain't no amateur! You are simply experiencing the R0R "negative fluctuation".
IMHO!
phantom007.
If you are a decent Counter, and are developing "the cards are not falling my way mentality"...as most ALL of us "regulars" have, from time to time, then, quite simply, either:
(1) You are making mistakes...in Counting (rare), Indicies (common), and/or too many camifloge plays (intermediate). For example, for the last 2+ years, I have used AOII-+6/-6 for most of my SD/DD play. About 6 weeks ago, further study revealed that I had been making the WRONG play with 16 vs. Dealer 10 in most + Counts between +1 and +5.
(2) You have not played enough hands!
In your case, I suspect #2 is most likely. By your previous posts, you ain't no amateur! You are simply experiencing the R0R "negative fluctuation".
IMHO!
phantom007.
Re: AGREE!
Sammy Boy:
"I only got 3 BJs in 5 hours". Much too short of a time frame; losing streaks that stretch over hundreds of hours are common enough that every serious player will likely experience one or more. A few weeks ago on my way to "shock and awe" the casino I started off with a shoe where the dealer had an ace up on 9 or 10 of the 1st 13 hands; is there any doubt that things were going the dealer's way through no fault of my own; I think that the dealer had 4 or 5 BJs during this stretch; I hung in there because the count remained positive (guess who got all the low cards?).
BTW - that wasnt my worst shoe of the eve since I lost mostly low bets; I started the final shoe down about 75 units for the evening and pulled almost even during the 1st half of the last shoe. The count jumped through the roof on the 1st deck and kept going up (really a killer but I was making the hands with some nice bets); anyhow the count started falling on the last half of the shoe and I got creamed with lots of 17/18/19s losing to the dealers 20 and occasional snapper. On the final hand I lay out 45 units spread over 3 hands and pulled 3 11's to the dealers 10. Doubled all 3 and spiked 3 aces in a row (now they come out); to make a long story short I took it on the chin that eve. Welcome to 21 land!
You can't let short term results affect your psyche. Play a winning game and keep the spread up and the results will (should) come your way. This is a tough game indeed!
Sammy Boy:
"I only got 3 BJs in 5 hours". Much too short of a time frame; losing streaks that stretch over hundreds of hours are common enough that every serious player will likely experience one or more. A few weeks ago on my way to "shock and awe" the casino I started off with a shoe where the dealer had an ace up on 9 or 10 of the 1st 13 hands; is there any doubt that things were going the dealer's way through no fault of my own; I think that the dealer had 4 or 5 BJs during this stretch; I hung in there because the count remained positive (guess who got all the low cards?).
BTW - that wasnt my worst shoe of the eve since I lost mostly low bets; I started the final shoe down about 75 units for the evening and pulled almost even during the 1st half of the last shoe. The count jumped through the roof on the 1st deck and kept going up (really a killer but I was making the hands with some nice bets); anyhow the count started falling on the last half of the shoe and I got creamed with lots of 17/18/19s losing to the dealers 20 and occasional snapper. On the final hand I lay out 45 units spread over 3 hands and pulled 3 11's to the dealers 10. Doubled all 3 and spiked 3 aces in a row (now they come out); to make a long story short I took it on the chin that eve. Welcome to 21 land!
You can't let short term results affect your psyche. Play a winning game and keep the spread up and the results will (should) come your way. This is a tough game indeed!
CC-Management
Well-Known Member
Re: vacation
Sound like the deviation rollercoaster. Why have you not signed up on CC.COM? Please be our guest and become a member by creating a profile. It's FREE!
Sound like the deviation rollercoaster. Why have you not signed up on CC.COM? Please be our guest and become a member by creating a profile. It's FREE!
>>>>>>>>> You seem to think you are not getting the cards in a random fashion. Clumping is out of the question in a one deck game, and clumping itself is a four letter word <<<<<<<<<<
Hey Rob,
are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?
I have recently discovered a 2 deck automatic shuffler game not far from me. I have not had the opportunity to play 2 deck before and would like to try it. What are the differences in basic strategy between a 6 deck and 2 deck game ? also i observed the penetration to be about 1 deck . is this good for a 2 deck shoe ?
BradRod
Hey Rob,
are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?
I have recently discovered a 2 deck automatic shuffler game not far from me. I have not had the opportunity to play 2 deck before and would like to try it. What are the differences in basic strategy between a 6 deck and 2 deck game ? also i observed the penetration to be about 1 deck . is this good for a 2 deck shoe ?
BradRod
Hi Brad,
I'd like to take a stab at some of your inquiries and please correct me if I'm mistaken at any point...
All the literature and websites I've seen suggest that clumping, itself, is something that is not exploitable. What I mean is, if you see 3 10's come out, you can't just assume that a fourth 10 will also come out. However, this doesn't mean that "clumping" doesn't happen. Shuffle-tracking is a derivative of clumping. You follow a "clump of high-numbered cards" through a shoe and a shuffle and try to cut the cards to a place that's favorable to you. Often, shuffle-tracking is employed in multi-deck games (6 and 8D games), though several authors suggest that many casinos have taken steps to eliminate shuffle tracking (by employing a more sophisticated, or as you've pointed out, shuffling machines).
As far as 2D games are concerned, I mainly play 1D games, since as is often the case, 1 and 2D games have similar rules and the addition of the 1 extra deck means I'm losing .38%, assuming Vegas rules (according to "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book"). As far as learning BS for the 2D game, check out this link: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php . You can use your 6D BS on a 2D game and lose very little in terms of EV--you won't notice the difference. The penetration for the game you mentioned, though, seems poor. One deck dealt out of two is 50% penetration: I doubt many counters would play that game.
Anyway, hope this helps!
-C
are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?
I have recently discovered a 2 deck automatic shuffler game not far from me. I have not had the opportunity to play 2 deck before and would like to try it. What are the differences in basic strategy between a 6 deck and 2 deck game ? also i observed the penetration to be about 1 deck . is this good for a 2 deck shoe ?
BradRod
I'd like to take a stab at some of your inquiries and please correct me if I'm mistaken at any point...
All the literature and websites I've seen suggest that clumping, itself, is something that is not exploitable. What I mean is, if you see 3 10's come out, you can't just assume that a fourth 10 will also come out. However, this doesn't mean that "clumping" doesn't happen. Shuffle-tracking is a derivative of clumping. You follow a "clump of high-numbered cards" through a shoe and a shuffle and try to cut the cards to a place that's favorable to you. Often, shuffle-tracking is employed in multi-deck games (6 and 8D games), though several authors suggest that many casinos have taken steps to eliminate shuffle tracking (by employing a more sophisticated, or as you've pointed out, shuffling machines).
As far as 2D games are concerned, I mainly play 1D games, since as is often the case, 1 and 2D games have similar rules and the addition of the 1 extra deck means I'm losing .38%, assuming Vegas rules (according to "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book"). As far as learning BS for the 2D game, check out this link: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php . You can use your 6D BS on a 2D game and lose very little in terms of EV--you won't notice the difference. The penetration for the game you mentioned, though, seems poor. One deck dealt out of two is 50% penetration: I doubt many counters would play that game.
Anyway, hope this helps!
-C
are there games where clumping may be practiced ? multi deck games ? or is absolutley not done in the industry ?
I have recently discovered a 2 deck automatic shuffler game not far from me. I have not had the opportunity to play 2 deck before and would like to try it. What are the differences in basic strategy between a 6 deck and 2 deck game ? also i observed the penetration to be about 1 deck . is this good for a 2 deck shoe ?
BradRod
thanks cyrano
your comments made sense to me and thanks for the link. as far as clumping goes though i was trying to satisfy myself that it is not a practice that can be used by the casinos. if a player finds a way to exploit it more power to him / her / me.
given the choice then between a 2 deck game with poor penetration and a comparable rules 6 deck game with very good penetration it seems that the right choice would be the 6 deck game
your comments made sense to me and thanks for the link. as far as clumping goes though i was trying to satisfy myself that it is not a practice that can be used by the casinos. if a player finds a way to exploit it more power to him / her / me.
given the choice then between a 2 deck game with poor penetration and a comparable rules 6 deck game with very good penetration it seems that the right choice would be the 6 deck game