January poll.
- Thread starter Tito
- Start date
Last year I compared results by pure $$$ figures -- this year by units.
I like your idea of max bets won a lot, that's a much more sober way of evaluating our results -- it gives a sense for how little we've really won: just a few max bets here or there one way or the other can change the entire picture for a year. It drives home the point of the long run.
On the other hand, I don't think many of us evaluate our results in those terms in our own records. And "max bet" seems like a more fluid and inconsistent value than unit size.
Let's wait and see what the January 2005 poll looks like
--Mayor
I like your idea of max bets won a lot, that's a much more sober way of evaluating our results -- it gives a sense for how little we've really won: just a few max bets here or there one way or the other can change the entire picture for a year. It drives home the point of the long run.
On the other hand, I don't think many of us evaluate our results in those terms in our own records. And "max bet" seems like a more fluid and inconsistent value than unit size.
Let's wait and see what the January 2005 poll looks like
--Mayor
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Units, Max Units, $$$
For me it all boils down to actual USD. There are different spreads for different games, different units ie 5 25 100 etc. Similar to Wongs rules at the sports book site, you can only post your W/L record, not your # of u, you can't use "rouge lines" but in his book line shopping makes the man, not the clothes. I can't hack the atmosphere there. Not a good place for a positive person. If anything any report should have a cross section of info to it, not some vague no unit no $ line running across a colorful background. Go read an annual report for a listed company and you'll get the picture. How about expenses? Many counters never make any profit because they forget to report gas expenses, rooms, etc, as many losing players would be ahead if they worked in their comps, which is a separate issue to me. I think there are better ways of showing how well you did and comparing them to each other.
---U---MU---$---
I think Reverman is honest with himself and has put counting on the back burner as a hobby for a good reason. You can hide behind or brag about your unit count or your max unit count, but it all boils down to dollars and sense.....cents too. And even that? Means little in the bigger picture. Do you ENJOY playing form money? If you do, then you have "loverage." Like leverage but more powerful than a locomotive.
Super Rob
For me it all boils down to actual USD. There are different spreads for different games, different units ie 5 25 100 etc. Similar to Wongs rules at the sports book site, you can only post your W/L record, not your # of u, you can't use "rouge lines" but in his book line shopping makes the man, not the clothes. I can't hack the atmosphere there. Not a good place for a positive person. If anything any report should have a cross section of info to it, not some vague no unit no $ line running across a colorful background. Go read an annual report for a listed company and you'll get the picture. How about expenses? Many counters never make any profit because they forget to report gas expenses, rooms, etc, as many losing players would be ahead if they worked in their comps, which is a separate issue to me. I think there are better ways of showing how well you did and comparing them to each other.
---U---MU---$---
I think Reverman is honest with himself and has put counting on the back burner as a hobby for a good reason. You can hide behind or brag about your unit count or your max unit count, but it all boils down to dollars and sense.....cents too. And even that? Means little in the bigger picture. Do you ENJOY playing form money? If you do, then you have "loverage." Like leverage but more powerful than a locomotive.
Super Rob
Automatic Monkey
Banned
I like dollars per hour myself. That kind of includes everything in the equation, and it's the same way we rate other kinds of jobs. Keeps everything in perspective. It also allows us to compare our actual results to our sims, which is very important, because it lets you make sure that you are reproducing what you are supposed to be doing on paper at the table. None of this is worthwhile if you can't do that. Possibly a lot of people who are regularly losing money are screwing up their counts, it's easy enough to do.
phantom007
Well-Known Member
You ask "Why are we all losing?....
I answered the Jan. Poll honestly, re: Down for 2003. Total ($4,000.). I lost for the year due to:
1. Craps (I incluced these losses in net for the year).
2. Several "Ploppy melt-downs"...either drunk, or bored, but not both(grin), slipped into old Progressive phase, and other times, overbet B/R when I had neg. fluctuations, "trying to get back to even". Suprisingly, during many of these times, I often did get back to even, then only to keep playing.
However, for most everyone else, and somewhat for myself, I suspect we are losing because:
1. Most of us are still LEARNING, experimenting with different counting systems, casino skills, etc. IMHO, most of us attending this and/or similar sites are Learning. Case-in-point, OCKO...one of his/her last posts was to nature of "I won't be posting anymore...I need my time to play BJ".
2. Inadequate B/R's...IF a average American earns $37,000./yr., sits aside $2,000. for BJ, then loses $1,000., he/she may either stop playing or get so conservative that there is little chance to finish the year as a Winner.
3. Bad Games...6:5 BJ, poor pen., etc.
4. Not counting Comps in Winnings.
5. Not deducting BJ expenses (When Legitimate) from taxes.
6. Not Long-term losses...most of us have day/night jobs, and likely average less than 200-300 hrs. of true table time/yr. 37% of us being down/losing is not unexpected.
7. And Don't Forget...Those DAMN Ploppies who always take the Dealer's Bust Card (smile).
phantom007.
I answered the Jan. Poll honestly, re: Down for 2003. Total ($4,000.). I lost for the year due to:
1. Craps (I incluced these losses in net for the year).
2. Several "Ploppy melt-downs"...either drunk, or bored, but not both(grin), slipped into old Progressive phase, and other times, overbet B/R when I had neg. fluctuations, "trying to get back to even". Suprisingly, during many of these times, I often did get back to even, then only to keep playing.
However, for most everyone else, and somewhat for myself, I suspect we are losing because:
1. Most of us are still LEARNING, experimenting with different counting systems, casino skills, etc. IMHO, most of us attending this and/or similar sites are Learning. Case-in-point, OCKO...one of his/her last posts was to nature of "I won't be posting anymore...I need my time to play BJ".
2. Inadequate B/R's...IF a average American earns $37,000./yr., sits aside $2,000. for BJ, then loses $1,000., he/she may either stop playing or get so conservative that there is little chance to finish the year as a Winner.
3. Bad Games...6:5 BJ, poor pen., etc.
4. Not counting Comps in Winnings.
5. Not deducting BJ expenses (When Legitimate) from taxes.
6. Not Long-term losses...most of us have day/night jobs, and likely average less than 200-300 hrs. of true table time/yr. 37% of us being down/losing is not unexpected.
7. And Don't Forget...Those DAMN Ploppies who always take the Dealer's Bust Card (smile).
phantom007.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Re: You ask "Why are we all losing?....
Phantom- well OK, including losses from craps is not really an accurate way of measuring your success as a card counter. You might as well include losses in the stock market- not the same game. Sometimes I play a little low stakes VP before a BJ session for relaxation and cover and I don't include that in my accounting (even though I hit a straight flush last month and I'm up.)
It's also not the same game if you are playing BJ without counting, retrogressing to progressions or something like that. I admit, I steam (overbet high counts when down because I am sick of being down) sometimes but doing that is still within the realm of advantage play because the odds are still in your favor, just very risky for the bankroll.
True, playing craps or something else occasionally might increase your longevity at a casino by more than it decreases your profit. Maybe set a limit for yourself, no more than 10% of your card counting BJ action should be offered to cover games; craps, Spanish 21, BJ with autoshufflers.
Phantom- well OK, including losses from craps is not really an accurate way of measuring your success as a card counter. You might as well include losses in the stock market- not the same game. Sometimes I play a little low stakes VP before a BJ session for relaxation and cover and I don't include that in my accounting (even though I hit a straight flush last month and I'm up.)
It's also not the same game if you are playing BJ without counting, retrogressing to progressions or something like that. I admit, I steam (overbet high counts when down because I am sick of being down) sometimes but doing that is still within the realm of advantage play because the odds are still in your favor, just very risky for the bankroll.
True, playing craps or something else occasionally might increase your longevity at a casino by more than it decreases your profit. Maybe set a limit for yourself, no more than 10% of your card counting BJ action should be offered to cover games; craps, Spanish 21, BJ with autoshufflers.
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Losing
well if you know you have not been playing wisely, that is one thing, but you can also have a down year due to the swings in the game. With a 1% advantage its like swinging across the monkey bars. Each time you move your hand forward, your feet swing back and forth but soon enough you get to double your BR. Which could be $100, 100K, or x units.
well if you know you have not been playing wisely, that is one thing, but you can also have a down year due to the swings in the game. With a 1% advantage its like swinging across the monkey bars. Each time you move your hand forward, your feet swing back and forth but soon enough you get to double your BR. Which could be $100, 100K, or x units.
Re: Losing
May be that the games are "influenced" by other factors. I often wonder why counters do not win at greater rates than they do. Seems like most counters are experiencing results lower than EV. I think that there are dealers sent to "take care" of players winning at too high a rate. I know that there are dealers able to deal seconds right in front of me, they are that good. It wouldn't take a very large percentage of hands to turn around a session. I also think that the large casinos in LV are pretty confident that they can act with impunity,
May be that the games are "influenced" by other factors. I often wonder why counters do not win at greater rates than they do. Seems like most counters are experiencing results lower than EV. I think that there are dealers sent to "take care" of players winning at too high a rate. I know that there are dealers able to deal seconds right in front of me, they are that good. It wouldn't take a very large percentage of hands to turn around a session. I also think that the large casinos in LV are pretty confident that they can act with impunity,