Just back from Vegas

Victoria

Well-Known Member
Let's see; to be politically correct on this board, I think it is called variance, most people just call it luck. For those who think progression, think about this. I lost 16 straight hands, nearly half of those in a very positive shoe. I watched the right cards hit the table but just not hit my hand. On one hand, TC+5 and two other players at the table. I paired 7's, one player got a BJ, other a 20, dealer had a 5. With a $250 bet I split, get a 3rd 7, and a 4th. Then 2 10's, a 4 for a double with a horrid ace, then a third 10. Dealer turns a 15, hits an ace, then a 3. It's happened before, it will happen again (I am convinced anything can happen short run), and it is mentally draining. With the shoe still positive but my confidence not, I backed off to my minimum bet till I proved to myself I could win one (saved about a grand doing this) but the count went down and I went to dinner. Point is to anyone new to this game of ours: Though you will win long run, in the short run, in a positive count situation, you can be slaughtered. Cost me $3,000 or so but for a progressionist 16 straight is death. So for the new guys, you can play perfectly but if you hit a period of shit luck, oops variance, you will take your lumps.

Can not give too many details about where I played because I will be going back. They have a good 6 deck, hand shuffled game at green level. They went to 6-5 a the single deck but their single deck game was never good because of early shuffles.
Penetration was all over the place. Worst probably was 2/3 or 67%, to my favorite dealer who is around 90%. No heat, image getting heat while in that loosing streak, but a new pit creature was checking me very closely while I was going well. I cut the session short and then said hi to the pit boss who I think knows I count. She once commented to me, that I seem to attract better players to the tables when I am there (better must mean bigger loosers). Being a wise ass, I asked if she wanted to give me a percentage, she laughed and said, "Oh, I think we treat you pretty well."
For the four days I was down, but with an average bet of probably around $125, dropping nearly $1,500 in about 25 hours is not significant.
If I take into consideration the mini suite, food and entertainment, the loss is even less.
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Nice report! You got your wings I see. You have seen the dragon! You are not afraid and that is a good thing. Down $1500? You can get that back in no time.

"Cost me $3,000 or so but for a progressionist 16 straight is death."

Depends on which progression my dear. <WINK>
 

Victoria

Well-Known Member
Been there before

Rob
I have not been doing this as long or as often as many of you, but long enough to have had solid tastes in both directions. $1,500 for a trip with my betting range is 6 max bets, it's a few doubles that did not work, it is basically minor. As far as fear goes, well I am guilty of underbetting my hands after I had lost 7 or so in a row. I went against the math till I could finally win one. Probably saved a grand or so as it worked out. Someone here will more than likely give me a short lecture against going against the math but human nature causes us to either increase our bets to get it all back quickly or temporarily get conservative, and I do the conservative. The math tells us that the human nature stuff does not matter, but it does in the gut.
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Re: Been there before

It is very hard to become like a machine while playing. You have to be able to detach yourself from the fact that you are risking money. It takes great faith in your ability. The only other way around that is to have an unlimited supply of money.
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Fish On!

I knew I would catch a fish with that post! Hope you didn't swallow it to far down. ;> I was just pointing out to Victoria that not every progo goes up after a loss, so it is not certain death. You do understand that right?

Did you know progressing your bet upwards after a win when the count is + is one of the biggest ways to cover the fact that you are a counter? Check out Ian Andersons book Turning the Tables, Revere's BJ as a Business, and Humbles WGBJB. This is not perfect play and cuts your edge, but will give you some longevity. So you do understand that progos make good cover too right?

I have never suggested that you can beat onLand BJ with simple progo's long term. That would be an insult to everyone's intelligence. I am not your Lee Harvey Oswald.
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Re: Fish On!

Tell that to Anderson, Revere, and Humble.

Flat betting will get you no where (unless you can Wong into +2% EV)

Matching the count will get you barred.

You have to LOOK like a gambler, a losing ploppy destined for the heap of lost souls with long faces that walk out the front door onto the pavement saying "FUCX" at the top of their lungs, or silently under their breath, not wanting to proclaim their new place in life to the entire world. Or a high roller that likes to ride his wins, who is able to walk away from losing 10K without asking for a comp or a free room. Who doesn't make a big deal when he is up 10K either.

"They" have their place in the ongoing history of blackjack my friend. When you want to look like a ploppy, you have to cover yourself in ploppy. I know it smells, but it'll get you in nice and close to that big vault you dream about.
 

learning to count

Well-Known Member
You sound like a ploppy!

Progressions have no place in card counting. Raising and lowering the bet according to the count is not a progression. Flat betting on wong does work. I still bet per the TC even in wonging. I'm sorry Rob but you are wrong!
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Point

I think you are missing the point. Have you read BJ as a Business? Turning the Tables on Las Vegas? The Worlds Greatest Blackjack Book? I can quote pages to you if you have these books. The optimum bet is the right bet, but often cannot be made. There are ways of getting it out there with positive attention from the pit. I'll leave is at that "Learning to Count." Looking like a ploppy can be a good thing.

From Nov BJPro Newsletter:

"On the back cover there is an article reprinted from the September 1993 BJF by Dr. 21. It simplifies the Kelly Criterion by showing how it works with 6 red chips and 4 white ones, and 10 bets. Red is a win, white is a loss. You have a 20% edge and should bet 20% of your 1K bank. This will give you a win of $223.06. Betting 15% or 25% gave around a $200 win. Betting 40% (2x Kelly) will actually lose $24.17. Flat betting $200 will guarantee a win of $400 with no risk of ruin, but what if there were 600 red chips and 400 white ones? The Kelly bettor would have $555 billion while the $200 flat bettor will have won $40K. Awesome example I must say."

Use your imagination. It is not hard to see how one could come up with a way to increase your bet sizes within the -5% +5% range around the Kelly as your BR goes upwards and remain a welcome player at almost any casino.

Hard math, soft style.

Crane seeks hidden path and strikes!
 

Alex

Member
Fondly

Victoria,
I am with you 100% and I understand exactly what you been through. Let me tell you what happened the past weekend in Vegas with me: I was playing on the strip in one of the premium clubs there and my average bet was about $1,000 in one of the best double decks games available nowadays. S17, DAS, DA2, RSA, and LS with penetration of about 66% and betting limits from 100 to 10,000.
Now, After 6 hours playing session I was still in the hole and I could not manage to come out entirely. I lost the majority of my doubling downs and got just under the normal number of BJs. At one point in a TC of above +5 I got two deuces vs. 6 up card. I split and got a 7. I double down that hand. I got another deuce and split again. I got an 9 and double again. Got an Ace on the last one and double again. Now I have a BMW on the table in 6 max bets out vs. the dealer's 6. Believe it or not the dealer's making 20 and I got the biggest total of 17 on one hand only. So I lost all of them. Now, the count is still high and I push another max bet out only to get a 10,4 vs. 7 up card. I hit and BUST.

That's fine, because I'm not sentimentally attached to the chips and I only push whatever number of units is required according to the count. By the end of 6 hours of play I was so exhausted that I couldn't continued playing for a little longer to come out from that horrible hole and left the table to go to sleep with still $1,500 hole. I was so tired mentally that I couldn't handle to play more until I get one and a half average bet to bring me to even. The next day when I was rested and fresh I played again and got my money back that was left in the hole PLUS about 20 average bets more.

Now, looking back I can say that the $$$ in the hole of our sessions are the result of one or two double downs of a split with double after. Not a big deal but you have to go into the game rested and mentally relaxed. I am sure you will get your $1,500 back plus much more on top of that.

Fondly,

AlexD30
 

eyesfor21

Well-Known Member
Rob ,no room here for kelly sucker systems

We like to involve known math tactics that work.Kelly doesn't.
Some are so worried about heat and alter their playing
that they actually lose. Lets try to win guys.
 

Victoria

Well-Known Member
How's the heat at that level

Alex

If I read your post correctly, your average bet was $1,000 and you left $1,500 in the hole??? That is the same as a $5 better with a loss of $7.50 for the night. Ploppy's call that breaking even or perhaps better. In a game like yours there must be quite a few eyes on the players. I have played with a few players who were betting $1,000 or so average and there were always at least one extra set of pit eyes on the game. I figured though that they were watching the bigger players and worried less about cover at my range. My jump from $50 to $250 was nothing in their eyes compared to the gent with a few thousand out there. Might be wrong, but did not get tossed.

For myself, I fully agree with you, taking a loss is part of what we do. My point, perhaps just like yours, was that with all that went wrong during my trip, my loss was insignificant. I dropped over 10 grand once, never betting above $250 and have seen the other ends of things when every time you push that big bet out there it seems like you get 20, BJ or a double that you win on.

I do think that all new counters should understand that there will be times that you will get hit hard and not loose confidence. They need to understand the concept of bankroll.
 

Alex

Member
Re: How's the heat at that level

Victoria,
That's correct regarding the $1,500 hole. That was no hole whatsoever. My point was that I was not able anymore to see and handle cards and chips flying over the table. Now, the heat level was very loose because the other player was betting almost flat with 2K each bet. For myself to be able to reach that betting level the only way possible was to bet like Don Schlesinger describe it in his book and that is to use parlay of the last bet if won and the count was positive. On that particular situation from my post was that I have been winning a couple hands and have reach my MAX and at that point I got the two deuces and I did the split/resplit and double after split and I LOST.

Now, if you are interested I can give you a tip of a game that is the absolutely one of the BEST game of 21/BJ in the world at this time but you have to email me and I will reply back with the info. The Basic Strategy player has an edge of the top. Betting limits are from $100 to $3000. You can clean that game out with $200 of the top and then depending how the count goes you either let the $400 ride if you won the previous hand or drop to $100 in negative if you lost the previous hand. The game is Single Deck, H17, DAS, DA2, Sp3, SpA1 and Late Surrender. YES! .., Late surrender and DAS in single deck. I'm serious! You either have or not the big edge after the first hand is out. But the beauty is that we don't have to drive much from central CA to get there.

Alex

Email me at: [email protected]
 

wong out

Well-Known Member
Re: How's the heat at that level

Victoria:

Sorry for being abit behind on this thread but you mentioned above that you lowered your bet with a juicy count based on previous losses and saved a grand?? Tsk Tsk; sounds like you know better.

BJ variance sucks for the underbankrolled (BTW - br can relate to emotional as well as financial tolerance). Personally I would (and do) just keep wonking it out if justified by the count and have no problems running my pockets empty as long as I am betting with an edge. Yep I've had big losses and big wins; over time the wins have exceeded the losses. Not chunking it out when the count is up is just throwing $$ away in my book.

Tough game!

wong out
 

Victoria

Well-Known Member
I know better, but

wong out

Yes I do know better and on most loosing sessions I throw the money out there according to the count. My post had to do with the mental aspect of a long loosing streak within a session and how it effects me and perhaps other players. My bankroll is sufficient for my betting range, the whole thing is real real short term and just mental, nothing to do with bankroll. Once the streak ended it was back to normal.
Hey, I am quilty of being a conservative ploppy (much better than a progressionist ploppy) for a short period of time and letting the math slide. When it happens again I will probably do the same thing and it really does not matter in the long run, it just helped me survive that short streak.
Ready here for the firing squad.
Victoria
 

wong out

Well-Known Member
Re: I know better, but

Victoria:

Firing squad?? Hey its your money; I was just trying to help.

I agree that many players probably make unwarranted bet and play changes based on short term results. I agree with most of what you said except about the part about it not having a long term impact. The only impact is a lowered win rate as the result of betting less dough with an edge. The magnitude of the impact is a function of how often you lower your bets with a juicy count, how far you drop them too, etc. (you can fill in the details).

Anyhow - you have to expect to lose, lose big and lose often (per S Wong) as long as you play this game. Its not an easy way to make money if you let short term results affect you psyche and outlook. I would rather hear that someone dropped 10K while betting with the count than saved 1k by cutting back because the cards were bad. I have often dramatic changes in fortune through a single shoe and am glad that I kept chunking it out when things looked bleak. Bet with the edge and hope for the best since you cant predict the outcome.

my two cents...

good luck!

wong out
 

wong out

Well-Known Member
Re: Fondly

Alex:

I have to congradulate you; six hours at a double deck game and you were allowed to continue play with a 1K average bet. Great cover dude! What kind of spread and cover were you using? Also when was this?? I am not aware of any S17/DAS DD games on the strip that have LS as well (in fact I cant think of any games that have been like this in quite a while).

So I must congradulate you on your game selection as well!

wong out
 

wong out

Well-Known Member
Re: Fondly

Ahh:

After wracking my brain I remember one s17/DAS/LS game on the strip but it had 50% pen not 66%; but if you found 66% then great!

wong out
 
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