First off what is the most common and relatively safest fraction of kelly to bet if I have a slow process of replenishing my bankroll. I have a $25,000 bankroll now but could put no more than $500 a month back into it besides what I might win. Do I figure just my unit size? Do I figure my max bet and then divide that by my spread? And what true count is normal for putting out a max bet. I have read a few different things here and was looking for some opinions on this. Also what is TC-1 betting, i dont understand that term. I play 6 deck LS, DAS, DA2, split aces once, Dealer stands on 17, and penetration runs between 1 and 1.5 decks.
Kelly Betting
- Thread starter JoeV
- Start date
positiveEV
Well-Known Member
You should not play over 0.5 Kelly. With your bankroll, your max bet would be $300, your unit $50 and your minimum bet $25. That would make a 1-12 spread.
If the game was break even, you would bet TC*Unit every hand, but since the game start with a disadvantage you have to do TC-1 to get your advantage, at a TC of 1 your advantage is 0 (break even point).
So with a 0.5 Kelly you would bet half a unit at a TC of 1 or less (or bet nothing if you can, which is better to do when you can do it). At a TC of 2, you would bet 1 unit, at a TC of 3, you would bet 2 units, etc.
Note: This was taken from BlackjackInstitute's (MIT team) training manual/DVD.
If the game was break even, you would bet TC*Unit every hand, but since the game start with a disadvantage you have to do TC-1 to get your advantage, at a TC of 1 your advantage is 0 (break even point).
So with a 0.5 Kelly you would bet half a unit at a TC of 1 or less (or bet nothing if you can, which is better to do when you can do it). At a TC of 2, you would bet 1 unit, at a TC of 3, you would bet 2 units, etc.
Note: This was taken from BlackjackInstitute's (MIT team) training manual/DVD.
Thank you that sounds very easy to follow, but 2 questions. What equation or rule of thumb did you use to find my betting unit, and using this system doesn't it take an awful high count to get a max bet out? Don't get me wrong it sounds good and I like the ease of it but I would need a true count of 7 to get my max bet out. That might be hard to do.asiafever said:
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
Place your max bet at +4 always.
You always bet according to your advantage.JoeV said:
To figure out your betting unit @ a .5 kelly divide your total bankroll into 887. that puts you just under a 25 dollar unit.
This is tough to deal with because, your not putting alot of money on the table. Yet your risk of loosing your bankroll is slim about 11%. Thats why you will hear a term ( the law of large numbers ). With a million dollar bankroll, you will see larger winnings obviously. You have to have the patients of a buddist munk when playing low stakes. But given time, you will see your BR grow and can readjust your betting unit accordingly.
Something else to think about and this will answer a few other peoples questions about the checkout or at least leave a hint, are your going to only play 1 hand when you have the advantage? What is your betting unit size with two hands in play and what factors do you have to take into account to place the correct bet, make the correct strategy decisions?
The checkout is not impossible. Its just dam hard if you are not 100%.
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This is what I find confusing, I've got basically 3 different answers for this question. *** says at .5 kelly my unit is $50 but bet 1/2 a unit until a true count of 2. mdlbj says .5 kelly for my bankroll is $25 and that I should divide my bankroll by 887, that just doesn't sound right, and supercool says lay out my max bet at a true count of 4, which I believe is betting way over my advantage but he offers no explanation. Somebody please help and explain this to me.mdlbj said:
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My bad, asia was right..
To find your Betting unit.
.5 x ( 25000/266 ) = 46.99
Or kelly x ( bankroll/266 )
Your bet is equal to your advantage minus the table offset.
If your bankroll supports a *40 dollar unit, your min bet is #20 and your max bet should be 240 . That is with a spread of 6/1.
*Your bankroll unit corresponds to your 1 hand unit.
#Half your betting unit when at a disadvantage.
JoeV what counting system are you using? I don't want to point you in the wrong direction. This is used for HI-LO with specific numbers plays.
P.S. This is what works for me. It is a proven method and I practice it. QFIT is another great resource on this board. He has the experience and knowledge at his fingertips so to speak.
To find your Betting unit.
.5 x ( 25000/266 ) = 46.99
Or kelly x ( bankroll/266 )
Your bet is equal to your advantage minus the table offset.
If your bankroll supports a *40 dollar unit, your min bet is #20 and your max bet should be 240 . That is with a spread of 6/1.
*Your bankroll unit corresponds to your 1 hand unit.
#Half your betting unit when at a disadvantage.
JoeV what counting system are you using? I don't want to point you in the wrong direction. This is used for HI-LO with specific numbers plays.
P.S. This is what works for me. It is a proven method and I practice it. QFIT is another great resource on this board. He has the experience and knowledge at his fingertips so to speak.
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zengrifter
Banned
If your starting bank is $25k and you can augment (win or lose) at $500/mo = $6000 per year, size your bets at $30k starting BR and bet 1/2 kelly - topBet $300 or 2x $225. Thats conservative enough. zg
positiveEV
Well-Known Member
So many different answers, he is probably more confused than before now :laugh: