Ko count question ?

[blackchipjim]

I was at the tables the other day and took careful mental notes at the tables. I was both playing and backcounting other tables at times and found that sometimes when the count would start to skyrocket into really positive teritory that the high cards were not coming out as one would expect. I found this to be unusual even though I know it does happen. At the tables where I was playing I would key on the really high counts and start to drop my bets back down. I know better but it did it as an experiment anyways. My question is that is there a high limit to positive counts where the big counts are not really true? blackchipjim

 

[Beast]

Hi,

In short the answer is no. At extremely high counts you get more 20 pushes.

Beast

 

[geneticfreak]

I've seen the same thing happen. In fact I got killed by a very high positive count using KO playing heads up. The dealer got all the 20's and I got all the stiffs.

 

[rdorange]

Don't forget....

Don't ever forget what can be behind the cut card!! That can account for a lot of lost high cards.

 

[BJinNJ]

If the high cards...

are behind the cut card, you could always try a bit
of shuffle tracking to get even after the next shuffle.

BJinNJ

 

[aslan]

I believe the dealer is still more likely to win over the player in high counts, at least, that is what I have read. The difference is still naturals, 10 and 11 double downs, and 7, 8, and 9 splits where high cards favor the player. Winning more when we win is our weapon over the house advantage. Advanced players correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[rdorange]

Bs players

Aslan, I know a lot of Bj players that are not counters. They know Bs perfect, and are willing to play with those odds. They all (most all anyway) have one thing in common about the play and betting strategy they use. The are willing to flat bet at a level that is comfortable to them. They all say the same thing though...Just wait for your Bjs, your double downs and your splits! That is where they make their little bit of money.

 

[aslan]

Aslan, I know a lot of Bj players that are not counters. They know Bs perfect, and are willing to play with those odds. They all (most all anyway) have one thing in common about the play and betting strategy they use. The are willing to flat bet at a level that is comfortable to them. They all say the same thing though...Just wait for your Bjs, your double downs and your splits! That is where they make their little bit of money.

My point is though that even when counters are in positive territory there is a false expectation that the odds favor them winning the majority of hands. I don't believe this is true, but instead their edge comes from bj's, double downs, and splits that sometimes occur during those positive counts. Therefore, when a counter loses most of his hands in positive counts, he should realize that this is to be expected. On the other hand, in the long run he should be ahead on the money in positive counts because of the bj's, dd's, and splits. I wonder if anyone knows what the odds are of bj's, dd's, and splits occurring during positive counts? With that data we might be able to extrapolate how often we should expect to be ahead on the money in positive counts, for example, 1 out of 2 times, 1 out of 3 times, etc. Does anyone know?

 

[sagefr0g]

My point is though that even when counters are in positive territory there is a false expectation that the odds favor them winning the majority of hands. I don't believe this is true, but instead their edge comes from bj's, double downs, and splits that sometimes occur during those positive counts. Therefore, when a counter loses most of his hands in positive counts, he should realize that this is to be expected. On the other hand, in the long run he should be ahead on the money in positive counts because of the bj's, dd's, and splits. I wonder if anyone knows what the odds are of bj's, dd's, and splits occurring during positive counts? With that data we might be able to extrapolate how often we should expect to be ahead on the money in positive counts, for example, 1 out of 2 times, 1 out of 3 times, etc. Does anyone know?

i'll venture a guess. but like you i'm curious just how it does work.
my guess is that bj's are more likely in positive counts.
dd's may be a little less likely than the likelyhood of overall dd's occuring but successful ones when they do occur are more likely.
haven't the foggiest regarding splits, some i believe lead to those sucessful double downs while other give you the chance to get more money out with a slightly better chance of winning with your following basic strategy play.

but yes those blackjacks, double downs and splits and also insurance with an optimal bet out is where the money comes from.