KO question

N

Numberman

Member
what is the key count where you would wong out in an AC game?

what is the change in EV from doing this?


according to the KO site, if you have a bet spread of 1-2 in a 6 deck game the EV is -.15 and in a 8 deck game it is -.22, so i am thinking that if i wong out at the right time i can cut the edge to 0 and possibly gain a slight edge

can anyone confirm this? i am just a guy who goes to AC on the weekends and wants to play an even or slightly EV+ game, i dont have a huge bankroll, so im looking for low variance and just to last as long as possible, i think this might be the best way to accomplish that
 
sicharlton

sicharlton

Member
I'm thinking when the count is below the key? Wait for the big boys, they'll explain fully and properly. I'm just an amateur :)
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
Numberman said:
what is the key count where you would wong out in an AC game?

what is the change in EV from doing this?


according to the KO site, if you have a bet spread of 1-2 in a 6 deck game the EV is -.15 and in a 8 deck game it is -.22, so i am thinking that if i wong out at the right time i can cut the edge to 0 and possibly gain a slight edge

can anyone confirm this? i am just a guy who goes to AC on the weekends and wants to play an even or slightly EV+ game, i dont have a huge bankroll, so im looking for low variance and just to last as long as possible, i think this might be the best way to accomplish that
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Do you have the book? If not, why not? Perhaps you're in Bulgaria and amazon.com won't ship there?

The answers are in it...

Anyway, the wong out point(s) depend on how many cards are dealt. For a 6 deck game, the book talks about the "rule of 5's" to make it easier to remember. With your IRC = -3, wong out at -5 after 1 deck, 0 after 2 decks, 5 after 3 decks, and 10 after 4 decks. This puts the wong out point at a TC between -1 and -1.5.

More importantly, you should be spreading 1-10 in a 6 deck game. Why only 1-2?
 
N

Numberman

Member
yeh im not sure

sicharlton said:
I'm thinking when the count is below the key? Wait for the big boys, they'll explain fully and properly. I'm just an amateur :)
Click to expand...
i would think the count would need to be below the IRC, but im not sure how much
 
N

Numberman

Member
21forme said:
Do you have the book? If not, why not? Perhaps you're in Bulgaria and amazon.com won't ship there?

The answers are in it...

Anyway, the wong out point(s) depend on how many cards are dealt. For a 6 deck game, the book talks about the "rule of 5's" to make it easier to remember. With your IRC = -3, wong out at -5 after 1 deck, 0 after 2 decks, 5 after 3 decks, and 10 after 4 decks. This puts the wong out point at a TC between -1 and -1.5.

More importantly, you should be spreading 1-10 in a 6 deck game. Why only 1-2?
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im just looking for an even EV with low volatility, im trying to figure out if a 1-2 bet spread with a wong out will do that
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Numberman said:
im just looking for an even EV with low volatility, im trying to figure out if a 1-2 bet spread with a wong out will do that
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Someone else will give you the exit count, BUT IF you are using wong-out strategy 1-2 spread won't cut it. Use 1-8 min. zg
 
N

Numberman

Member
zengrifter said:
Someone else will give you the exit count, BUT IF you are using wong-out strategy 1-2 spread won't cut it. Use 1-8 min. zg
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a 1-2 spread in a 6 deck game has an expectation of -.15%, i know it wont cut it

but are you saying that with wonging out i cant at least get that EV down to zero? thats all im looking for
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
Numberman said:
a 1-2 spread in a 6 deck game has an expectation of -.15%, i know it wont cut it

but are you saying that with wonging out i cant at least get that EV down to zero? thats all im looking for
Click to expand...
If you play hands only above the pivot point and wong out the rest of the time, you'll have a positive EV. However, you'll only be playing a few hands per hour.
 
N

Numberman

Member
21forme said:
If you play hands only above the pivot point and wong out the rest of the time, you'll have a positive EV. However, you'll only be playing a few hands per hour.
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so if the IRC is -20, i cant get a better EV by wonging out if the count drops to -25 or -30, isnt that the near equivalent of wonging out with a -1 True Count in HI/LO, ?
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
Numberman said:
so if the IRC is -20, i cant get a better EV by wonging out if the count drops to -25 or -30, isnt that the near equivalent of wonging out with a -1 True Count in HI/LO, ?
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That is correct, however, a 1:2 spread isn't anywhere near enough to get +EV under those conditions. As you don't want to increase your bet significantly, a better approach would be to backcount and wong in when TC is greater than +2, and wong out when it drops.
 
N

Numberman

Member
21forme said:
That is correct, however, a 1:2 spread isn't anywhere near enough to get +EV under those conditions. As you don't want to increase your bet significantly, a better approach would be to backcount and wong in when TC is greater than +2, and wong out when it drops.
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ok, with a 1-2 bet spread, i am at a -.15% EV in a 6 deck game, so the effect from wonging out at the TC equivalent of -1 is so minimal that it wont even get me close to an EV of 0 or at least cut the -.15% in half? mind you im really just looking for an EV of 0%
 
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