Large win - guess it depends on the units though

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chichow

Well-Known Member
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Midwestern

Well-Known Member
5.8 million in a 12 hour spree.

he was probably playing heads up so he was probably getting 100 hands per hour. At 1200 hands, this means that he profited about $4,800 per hand, or around $483,333 per hour.

now lets do some math to figure out plausible sizes for his "TOTAL UNIT WIN" and back out his unit size.

Units won/ implied unit size
50.00 116,000.00
100 58,000.00
200 29,000.00
250 23,200.00
300 19,333.33
500 11,600.00
750 7,733.33
1000 5,800.00
1500 3,866.67
2000 2,900.00
5000 1,160.00
7500 773.33


Now i have read some posts on here about players getting +870 units in one shoe. So that is why i am not disregarding a win in large unit numbers, however, im going to side with statistics here and say that 7500 unit swing over 12 hours and nothing to the downside is highly unlikely.

If you look at the math above, the Per-hand bet doesn't have to be that big actually to make this win realistic (in unit terms). My best bet is that the guy plays hands of 5k and spreads 1-20 and won 1000 units in a 12 hour session. That is not implausible at all. This is equivalent to a red-chipper winning 6k over a weekend in vegas. It's not impossible, but certainly ahead of expectation :grin:
 
L

LovinItAll

Well-Known Member
Midwestern said:
5.8 million in a 12 hour spree.

he was probably playing heads up so he was probably getting 100 hands per hour. At 1200 hands, this means that he profited about $4,800 per hand, or around $483,333 per hour.
Click to expand...
Isn't the standard deviation for basic strategy somewhere around 10 units/100 hands? If he was flat betting $100k/hand, the big win isn't even close to unusual, right?

The article says something like "He wouldn't disclose his losses over time." Even with the big win, it doesn't mean that he hasn't lost as much or more over the past x years. The barring/rebate rescinsion/whatever could have been just as much the casino saying, "Sorry. We don't want the risk of getting killed just because you happen to be on a heater.", or "Sorry, no way are we giving back EVERYTHING you've lost to us over time." or "Okay, we're even. Bye".

There just isn't enough info in the article to know for sure.

Just my thoughts.

Best ~ L.I.A.
 
T

tthree

Banned
If he is like some BJ whales Ive seen...

Ive seen whales with reserved tables with special limits. They usually play all pips at max bet every hand. They get the high limits because they arent ramping their bets. If he's getting 20% loss rebate you know he doesnt look like an AP. Playing 6 or 7 pips is $600,000 or $700,000 in action against every dealer hand. Not hard to see how he could win that much. The question is how much did he lose in his losing sessions or trips.
 
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