Late Surrenders

[jnthwrig2]

I'm running simulations on late surrenders and I'm finding that I should surrender for instance 6,10 when the dealer has a 10, but not when I have a 7,9. Both total 16 so I would think they would be the same. Do you think there is something wrong with my simulation? If not...why am I coming up with this.

Thanks!

Jon

 

[Doofus]

Think logically; when you have 6,10 the card you really need is a 6, but your hand has already removed one of the 6s from the deck. When you have 7,9 that 6 is still in the deck. The difference is slight, but palpable.

Are you running this sim in a one-deck game? This difference obviously fades the more decks you add to the game.

 

[jnthwrig2]

Surrender

I'm modeling with 8 decks...

However, with both totalling 16 you really need a 5 for 21. With a 6 it will be 22.

 

[Doofus]

I'm modeling with 8 decks...

However, with both totalling 16 you really need a 5 for 21. With a 6 it will be 22.

And I wasn't even drunk when I posted that! LOL! :cool2:

 

[Sonny]

Based on the EV chart on BJMath you should surrender both of those hands because the EV is less than -50%:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/8dh17.htm (Archive copy)

-Sonny-

 

[jnthwrig2]

Random Number Generator Problem

Thanks for the help...I tracked it down to a problem with the random number generator.

Jon

 

[davidpom]

I'd surrender any 16 hand (except soft 16) against a dealer picture. How its made up is somewhat irrelevant. Well, ok, not totally true - if you have 8 2's making up the hand, that might be very slightly different to a 10,6.... but in the long term I think its probably marginal.

 

[moo321]

I'd surrender any 16 hand (except soft 16) against a dealer picture. How its made up is somewhat irrelevant. Well, ok, not totally true - if you have 8 2's making up the hand, that might be very slightly different to a 10,6.... but in the long term I think its probably marginal.

In a shoe game, yes it's marginal. For a counter, it doesn't matter because you're using your index number. For a basic strategy player in a single or double deck game, it matters a little.

 

[Kasi]

I'd surrender any 16 hand (except soft 16) against a dealer picture. How its made up is somewhat irrelevant. Well, ok, not totally true - if you have 8 2's making up the hand, that might be very slightly different to a 10,6.... but in the long term I think its probably marginal.

Ah yes. That famous late-surrender-on-any-number-of-cards-anytime-you want rule.

Marginal at best lol.

 

[Sonny]

I'd surrender any 16 hand (except soft 16) against a dealer picture. How its made up is somewhat irrelevant.

Don't forget about a pair of eights. You would split them instead of surrender.

-Sonny-

 

[Knox]

With KO you surrender 8-8 v dealer 10 at the key count. I believe that correlates to a true count of +1, so surely there are other systems that have an index for this play?

 

[Mimosine]

With KO you surrender 8-8 v dealer 10 at the key count. I believe that correlates to a true count of +1, so surely there are other systems that have an index for this play?

well if that is the correct KO point, then it should have come from hi-lo (or it should be the exact same for hi-lo).