This is the reason why: I already know for long time that there is practically no difference if you deliberately use the wrong index, off by one point or so. In live games I use half a deck estimates in 2D, not for any greater accuracy, but it is usually easy because of the few cards in the discard tray compared to the shoe game. I usually divide the RC by 2 until a clear half deck is in the discard tray, then by 1.5, and after that point I just use the RC when there is about a full deck dealt. Usually the penetration is not good enough to place excessive worry on getting more accurate than that. If you do have good penetration then it may be worth going to quarter decks into second half while playing a 2D game.
Using less precise deck estimation and being conservative on the numbers of decks dealt is like using RA (risk averse) index without having to learn them. All of the hit/stand, double down, and split indexes automatically will be pushed up a little. We did a study and come up with the conclusion that less precise estimates win more $$.
Another point that I would like to make is that you guys have got to pay attention to this concept: If you cannot get enough "edge" over the house to make a decent income then don't worry and go crazy with bigger spreads to accomplish that. Just use the POWER of your bankroll to do just that. Play with a smaller edge but with bigger denomination chips. Mathematically it has been proven that this professional technique is working great and is harder to be detected too. For example: If you need to make $100 per hour or $100,000 per year as a full time income then you have to play with a 1.0% edge and have an average bet of $100 per hand. Now, to do that, you figure in your sims that the game in question has got to be attacked with a 1:6 spread in order to generate that a 1.0% edge. Wow, a 1:6 spread is a huge spread, and if you have a problem applying that spread in real games then you start playing and thinking like a pro does. Reduce the spread until the sims tells you that you have 0.50% edge and then bet into that game with $200 average bets. If, for the 0.50% your sims tells you that you still have to spread to 1:3 and if you find that to be a problem then you got to run the sims again and find out what spread gives you 0.25% edge over the house. Let's say that 1:2 gives you a 0.25% edge. So, How much should your average be? --- $400 per hand! Play with that average and you will make the same amount of money in the long run like the player that is struggling with 1:6 spread while betting $100 average. You see, the pro way is to use the power of your bank unit to make the same income with a much smaller edge and obviously with a much smaller spread too. This gives you longevity in business, while your income is the same. Now, if you don't have the bank then you have to be happy with less income per hour applying the same principle. Don't get upset by the edge. Adjust the average bet to make up for!
Hope that my point about using the deck estimation for TC conversion and the concept of chip denomination related to the edge will open up some new ways for you guys to attack this game.
AlexD30
PS: Now, our great host "The Mayor" is a PhD in mathematics, he is a accomplished computer programmer and most important for all of us is that is a pro BJ player. He can give some light into this issue if he so desire. We all will benefit from it. I guess.
Using less precise deck estimation and being conservative on the numbers of decks dealt is like using RA (risk averse) index without having to learn them. All of the hit/stand, double down, and split indexes automatically will be pushed up a little. We did a study and come up with the conclusion that less precise estimates win more $$.
Another point that I would like to make is that you guys have got to pay attention to this concept: If you cannot get enough "edge" over the house to make a decent income then don't worry and go crazy with bigger spreads to accomplish that. Just use the POWER of your bankroll to do just that. Play with a smaller edge but with bigger denomination chips. Mathematically it has been proven that this professional technique is working great and is harder to be detected too. For example: If you need to make $100 per hour or $100,000 per year as a full time income then you have to play with a 1.0% edge and have an average bet of $100 per hand. Now, to do that, you figure in your sims that the game in question has got to be attacked with a 1:6 spread in order to generate that a 1.0% edge. Wow, a 1:6 spread is a huge spread, and if you have a problem applying that spread in real games then you start playing and thinking like a pro does. Reduce the spread until the sims tells you that you have 0.50% edge and then bet into that game with $200 average bets. If, for the 0.50% your sims tells you that you still have to spread to 1:3 and if you find that to be a problem then you got to run the sims again and find out what spread gives you 0.25% edge over the house. Let's say that 1:2 gives you a 0.25% edge. So, How much should your average be? --- $400 per hand! Play with that average and you will make the same amount of money in the long run like the player that is struggling with 1:6 spread while betting $100 average. You see, the pro way is to use the power of your bank unit to make the same income with a much smaller edge and obviously with a much smaller spread too. This gives you longevity in business, while your income is the same. Now, if you don't have the bank then you have to be happy with less income per hour applying the same principle. Don't get upset by the edge. Adjust the average bet to make up for!
Hope that my point about using the deck estimation for TC conversion and the concept of chip denomination related to the edge will open up some new ways for you guys to attack this game.
AlexD30
PS: Now, our great host "The Mayor" is a PhD in mathematics, he is a accomplished computer programmer and most important for all of us is that is a pro BJ player. He can give some light into this issue if he so desire. We all will benefit from it. I guess.