Little bankroll risk of ruin

R

Ravn

Member
Hey again

I've just turned 18 and is soon on my way to my first casino-trip.
I don't bring money because I don't want to be surprised the first time. Are there some things I should pay attention to?

Penetration, speed, guards etc?

Question2:
I'm using a 1-4 betting spread. The minimum bet is 10$ and I've got 1000 $. As long I don't go broke I can win it back. If I lose it all I'm not sure I'm ready to play blackjack for a long time. Is the risk of going broke big and can I get a number in percentages? Is my BR large enough? I'm using the Red7 count and I have an advantage about 0,5% over the house.

Thanks in advance. There are always great answers from here. Great forum !
 
Dyepaintball12

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
Hey man - I can run the Simulation for you but I'll need more specific information about the games:

Number of Decks?
Penetration?
Stand or Hit S17?
Surrender?
Can you Double after Split? Double on any 2 cards?
Can you Re-split Aces?
 
B

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
Ravn said:
Hey again

I've just turned 18 and is soon on my way to my first casino-trip.
I don't bring money because I don't want to be surprised the first time. Are there some things I should pay attention to?

Penetration, speed, guards etc?

Question2:
I'm using a 1-4 betting spread. The minimum bet is 10$ and I've got 1000 $. As long I don't go broke I can win it back. If I lose it all I'm not sure I'm ready to play blackjack for a long time. Is the risk of going broke big and can I get a number in percentages? Is my BR large enough? I'm using the Red7 count and I have an advantage about 0,5% over the house.

Thanks in advance. There are always great answers from here. Great forum !
Click to expand...
Your BR is too small. You will go broke. Red7 is a fine shoe count, you should only play positive counts, spend time studying blackjack. Only play for money in a few years when you've got a 10K BR and can make more than minimum wage for your efforts. If you want to bet anyways and learn about the game bet only in positive counts and only bet the table minimum $10 on those hands. It is a cheaper education than going in head first.
BW
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
Don’t ENTER a casino until you have money that you can afford to lose.

Off the top of my (pointy) head I’d say that your chances of going broke is huge.

Perhaps as high as you can READILY imagine.

You are (heavily) favored to go broke in a hurry.

Depending on the rules in effect, the penetration, the count that you are using, etc.
(at your friendly neighborhood Gambling Hell) — we ordinarily suggest a real-life
Bankroll of 8000 − 1,200 ($10 units); or at least 200 ($10) units for a <short>
“Trip bankroll” — but those amounts would be based upon a betting spread
that mirrors your intention to win. You will not be likely to break even with a 4-1 spread -
ergo, you are playing at a disadvantage — bringing your Risk of Ruin perilously close to 99%
 
R

Ravn

Member
Dyepaintball12 said:
Hey man - I can run the Simulation for you but I'll need more specific information about the games:

Number of Decks? 6
Penetration? 70
Stand or Hit S17? S17
Surrender? NO
Can you Double after Split? Double on any 2 cards? Yes
Can you Re-split Aces? No
Click to expand...
All of your answers are kind of spooky I must admit. 10k is a lot of money IMO.
I would be very happy if you would do that for me. I could millions of hands my self but a sim is even better :grin:
 
B

BMDD

Well-Known Member
caramel6 said:
how can he be broken, if he always will gamble in a positive counts???
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He is severely undercapitalized for the very small advantage that he might have. Honestly, if you have to be asking these questions you are surely not ready to make money counting cards, especially under the conditions the OP has given.

Ravn, to have any chance of surviving in the casino under the conditions you presented you would need bo be extremely disciplined, and very selective about when you placed bets and how much you are betting. You would be risking your 1K, which be the tone of your post sounds pretty significant, for less than minimum wage and a huge chance of going broke.
 
C

caramel6

Well-Known Member
BMDD said:
He is severely undercapitalized for the very small advantage that he might have. Honestly, if you have to be asking these questions you are surely not ready to make money counting cards, especially under the conditions the OP has given.

Ravn, to have any chance of surviving in the casino under the conditions you presented you would need bo be extremely disciplined, and very selective about when you placed bets and how much you are betting. You would be risking your 1K, which be the tone of your post sounds pretty significant, for less than minimum wage and a huge chance of going broke.
Click to expand...
o,key, I am far less knowledgable that senior counters here, but I want to learn!

Do you mean that he can lose this 1000 when wonging in a positive counts?

What is ROR if he only wonging in in a TC PLUS 3 and higher, wiht a bets, say 25-50?
Would appreciate your reply, kind regards,
 
C

caramel6

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
Off the top of my (pointy) head I’d say that your chances of going broke is huge.

Perhaps as high as you can READILY imagine.

You are (heavily) favored to go broke in a hurry.

Depending on the rules in effect, the penetration, the count that you are using, etc.
(at your friendly neighborhood Gambling Hell) — we ordinarily suggest a real-life
Bankroll of 8000 − 1,200 ($10 units); or at least 200 ($10) units for a <short>
“Trip bankroll” — but those amounts would be based upon a betting spread
that mirrors your intention to win. You will not be likely to break even with a 4-1 spread -
ergo, you are playing at a disadvantage — bringing your Risk of Ruin perilously close to 99%
Click to expand...
sorry for sounding out of line, but why high ROR , if play only with TCPLUS3 and higher? Why do make all these spreads 1-4, if can only bet, say 3 units when TC 3 and wonging out? (in my case, heat is insignificant and many tables, however, no surrender
 
V

Viper

Member
caramel6 said:
sorry for sounding out of line, but why high ROR , if play only with TCPLUS3 and higher?
Click to expand...
Because of the variance. Even if you can obtain a 2% advantage, your results over a short run are usually significantly different than that.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
VARIANCE !

Your total bankroll is $10,000 and I offer for YOU to flip YOUR coin and CALL IT in the air.

If you call it correctly I will pay you $10,200, otherwise I take your $10,000.

Do you accept this bet with a 2.0% advantage ?

ONLY if you are insane.
 
SleightOfHand

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
caramel6 said:
sorry for sounding out of line, but why high ROR , if play only with TCPLUS3 and higher? Why do make all these spreads 1-4, if can only bet, say 3 units when TC 3 and wonging out? (in my case, heat is insignificant and many tables, however, no surrender
Click to expand...
Everyone is shouting variance, but in case he doesn't know, the point is that at ANY TC, you can never know if you are going to win or lose. Even at a TC of +15, there is a possibility of losing. All we know is the probability of being ahead or behind. Because of this uncertainty, we need a large bankroll to absorb losses that WILL occur during our high counts. The variance in CC is such that you are able to lose 10 times in a row during a high count, and it's not extremely uncommon. On my most recent trip, I had a high count with my max bet out and must have lost at least 5 times in a row on multiple occasions. It is one of the most understood aspects of the game by new players. You CAN and WILL lose during high counts and that is just something you need to be able to handle.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
...I offer for YOU to flip YOUR coin and CALL IT in the air.

If you call it correctly I will pay you $10,200, otherwise I take your $10,000.

Do you accept this bet with a 2.0% advantage ?
Click to expand...
Two percent advantage?

-Sonny-
 
V

Viper

Member
SleightOfHand said:
Everyone is shouting variance, but in case he doesn't know, the point is that at ANY TC, you can never know if you are going to win or lose. Even at a TC of +15, there is a possibility of losing. All we know is the probability of being ahead or behind. Because of this uncertainty, we need a large bankroll to absorb losses that WILL occur during our high counts. The variance in CC is such that you are able to lose 10 times in a row during a high count, and it's not extremely uncommon. On my most recent trip, I had a high count with my max bet out and must have lost at least 5 times in a row on multiple occasions. It is one of the most understood aspects of the game by new players. You CAN and WILL lose during high counts and that is just something you need to be able to handle.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the variance though? You're at an advantage in a high count but you still don't win because of the variance?

FYI - happened to me yesterday... was in a high count at the end of two consectutive shoes and lost five out of six hands with my max bet out on both those shoes. Frustrating, but all part of counting.
 
SleightOfHand

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
Viper said:
Isn't that the variance though? You're at an advantage in a high count but you still don't win because of the variance?

FYI - happened to me yesterday... was in a high count at the end of two consectutive shoes and lost five out of six hands with my max bet out on both those shoes. Frustrating, but all part of counting.
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear. Yes, the point of my post was explaining what variance is, rather than just saying that variance is the cause. It seemed that he was unclear on what it really means in the real world.
 
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