Long Term/ Short Term

[Gunpowder]

I'm having a hard time understanding the whole concept of long-term/short-term. Does this mean that each session (no matter whether same day or week later) at a blackjack table is just one big session but just split up, basically each session is a continuation of the last and in the long run if you play long enough you will lose (considering u play straight basic strayegy w/ no card counting). It just confuses me because I feel like each session is independent of any other session with no memory of what happened in previous plays.

Say that everytime I go to the casino I only play 15 hands, isn't that short term? And everyone says that in the short term a player can win but it is in the long run in which a player with always lose(unless card counting). Therefore, aren't I always playing short term by playing only 15 hands a day.

And what exactly is long term. I mean the basic strategy was developed through simulating billions of hands, I will never play a billion hands, so doesnt the strategy change a little bit. Because a 15 hands a day player and a 350 hands a day player have different definitions of long term. Does this also mean that because one is playing 350 hands a day he will reach the "long term" (and his inevitable failure) sooner than the person playing 15 hands a day.

Im not sure if any of this is valid, I am a little confused about this topic and would appreciate it if somebody could clear it up for me. Thank You.

 

[Sonny]

>Say that everytime I go to the casino I only play 15 hands, isn't that short
>term? And everyone says that in the short term a player can win but it is in
>the long run in which a player with always lose(unless card counting).
>Therefore, aren't I always playing short term by playing only 15 hands a day.

Think of the "long term" as your lifetime average. If you only play 15 hands a day, after 10 days you have played around 150 hands. Of course, 150 hands isn't very much, but it is much more than 15. The more days that you play, the closer to the long run (and losing more money) you get.

>Does this also mean that because one is playing 350 hands a day he will reach
>the "long term" (and his inevitable failure) sooner than the person playing 15
>hands a day.

Yes. If you play 15 hands each day, it will take you around 23 days to play 350 hands. There will be more fluctuation (up or downward tendancies) if you only play a few hands each day. The flip side is that if you are only playing basic strategy and the house still has the edge, the longer you play the more you will tend to lose. If you are playing a negative-expectation game, then safest bet is to play as little as possible if you don't want to loose money. This may mean playing 15 hands a day, then quitting for life! This also applies to Craps, Roulette or any other game where the house has the edge.

This is why card counters try to play alone and as fast as possible. We only have a very small edge over the casino, so the more hands we play per day, the more money we can expect to win (and the better our chances of winning are). Anything can happen in the short run!

I hope this helps.

-Sonny-

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Long term play is the phrase required to get a rational human being to spend hours and hour of its life to do what can often be done in the short term...