Looking for Advice and your opinions

[heliski123]

Hello All,

I have been following the site for some time now and really enjoy the comments.

A friend who is an AP (and a very good one at that) and I are heading to vegas for about 3 weeks soon and are bringing a BR of about 40k....I am not an AP just a good BS player, we will be playing as a team with me coming in only on positive counts and him flat betting. is this a realistic BR? to play with and possibly make a career out of?? your thoughts and experiences are greatly appreciated.

Thanks all

 

[kewljason]

Hello All,

I have been following the site for some time now and really enjoy the comments.

A friend who is an AP (and a very good one at that) and I are heading to vegas for about 3 weeks soon and are bringing a BR of about 40k....I am not an AP just a good BS player, we will be playing as a team with me coming in only on positive counts and him flat betting. is this a realistic BR? to play with and possibly make a career out of?? your thoughts and experiences are greatly appreciated.
Thanks all

To make a career you need to learn more than BS. Learn to count. But, yes, 40K is sufficient to begin a career assuming all other aspects and skills are in place. Many players including myself have started with much less.

With 40K, you are able to attack the $25 tables from the start. Advancing from the low limit tables to the $25 tables is one of the most significant jumps in a players career because of better conditions. (better rules, less crowded tables, more hands/hour) And you are able to skip that lower step.

I would reconsider the Big player team approach at this level. The big player approach is best applied at very high levels that you can't otherwise get a bet down without suspicion. At this level you could both just play solo and spread $25 to $300, $400, $500? Whatever you decide you are comfortable with as far as risk. Playing solo but as a team has the advantage of smoothing out your results and getting to the long run faster. Good luck and have fun in Vegas. It's a great time of year to visit.

 

[blackjack avenger]

can & should

Can be done, does not mean should
40g covering expenses for 2 is tight.
Ready to lose most of it at some point?
There are heat levels one needs to consider:
Bets under $100
Bets under $200
Bets under $500
Bets at $500, your bank is small and the heat is high.
Get the bank to 6 figures & get some experience.

 

[kewljason]

Can be done, does not mean should
40g covering expenses for 2 is tight.

If you are talking about living expenses, avenger, I wasn't incorporating that into my thoughts and reply. He didn't say he was moving to vegas to begin a career, but rather visiting for 3 weeks. I assumed that to mean they were going back home to a job and home, meaning living expenses and bankroll should be very separate.

 

[heliski123]

All expenses will be covered separately, the 40k is going to be used solely for play.

 

[blackjack avenger]

slim chance

40k is this a realistic BR? to play with and possibly make a career out of?

Probably not enough

 

[sagefr0g]

If you are talking about living expenses, avenger, I wasn't incorporating that into my thoughts and reply. He didn't say he was moving to vegas to begin a career, but rather visiting for 3 weeks. I assumed that to mean they were going back home to a job and home, meaning living expenses and bankroll should be very separate.

living expenses and bankroll are never really separate, erhh well except maybe for the mega rich. if only three weeks, well yeah, thing is that's probably an unrealistic time line. the op was also talking career possibilities, even if not a career though it's still best to consider all one's assets and liabilities, not to mention unknown black swan factors.
that said, i'd never consider putting 40k at risk, hard enough for me to put $5 at rsik, lol.
edit: do this AP stuff long enough and you'll come to the realization bankroll isn't really separate from your other stuff.

 

[kewljason]

living expenses and bankroll are never really separate, erhh well except maybe for the mega rich. if only three weeks, well yeah, thing is that's probably an unrealistic time line. the op was also talking career possibilities, even if not a career though it's still best to consider all one's assets and liabilities, not to mention unknown black swan factors.
that said, i'd never consider putting 40k at risk, hard enough for me to put $5 at rsik, lol.
edit: do this AP stuff long enough and you'll come to the realization bankroll isn't really separate from your other stuff.

Wow. I could not disagree more, Mr Froggy. Just minutes ago I posted a very related post on the other site asking how professional players handle their finances because I currently find myself in the dangerous position of dipping into my bankroll at the most inopportune time for living expenses.

Usually, I move a portion of my EV, (two-thirds) from my bankroll to my living expense account periodically. I only do so when I am above or very close to expectation, so as not to compound a losing stretch by withdrawing funds from the bankroll. I try to keep six months worth of living expense separate from the bankroll. Would like to get that to a year but have not been able to do so as yet.

However, in this current third quarter, I have suffered my worse losing period of my career, losing about 30% of my bankroll over a five week period back in July. This blow was lessened a bit because my bankroll was a little over inflated at the time. I suffered a second non-blackjack hit in the form of a robbery. I also have been sidelined with an illness and medical bills which I didn't anticipate that are depleting my living expenses quicker than I would like and I will soon have to dip into my bankroll at the most inopportune time, which is exactly what I try to avoid.

I will weather this storm, but am re-evaluating how I handle my finances. Maybe it's just a matter of building to higher levels of everything, bankroll and separate living expenses (and maybe emergency expenses) on hand.

But I do know that for me, I need the idea of having separate funds for living and playing. I do not like this feeling of dipping into bankroll during down cycles. It compounds the problem and creates more stress. :sad:

 

[sagefr0g]

Wow. I could not disagree more, Mr Froggy. .....

took out most of your post, errhh i can relate to that stuff but imho you should forget that stuff (pay heed to that stuff though, lol) and reconsider:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm (Archive copy)
edit: especially make note of Q8....

it's a real world out there, lol.
again, just me maybe, the longer you mess with this AP stuff, the more you'll realize the two financial areas of consideration, bankroll and your other stuff are really one. the "'bankroll'" is really just a subset fund of the real fund.

 

[blackjack avenger]

expenses are with you

Kewl, ;
You disagree with doggie & then your whole post shows that expenses; life, is not separate from the bank. Especially for the pro who gets most/all their income from play. It does not matter how or when you remove funds it raises ror/ drawdown risk.

Perhaps 1/8 Kelly plus one can remove funds without much fear.

 

[kewljason]

Kewl, ;
You disagree with doggie & then your whole post shows that expenses; life, is not separate from the bank. Especially for the pro who gets most/all their income from play. It does not matter how or when you remove funds it raises ror/ drawdown risk.

Perhaps 1/8 Kelly plus one can remove funds without much fear.

Who is doggie??

Of course for a professional player who's income is all generated from play, the two are connected. That goes without saying. But I believe you need to separate out living expenses from playing bankroll, even if it is just a psychological separation.

Withdrawing funds to pay rent, car payment and buy food during a time that your bankroll has been depleted with weeks or months of losing really compounds the shrinkage and causes more stress. The bankroll needs to be funds used exclusively for playing.

Just the same as if you and your wife are going to Vegas for a week and you have $5000 bankroll to play with. If you deduct $1200 in airfare and $1400 more for hotels and food, well then you don't have a $5000 bankroll you have $2400 bankroll. the bankroll is money used exclusively for play.

 

[sagefr0g]

Who is doggie??

he's nobody, nobody i tell yah.

...... The bankroll needs to be funds used exclusively for playing.

....

good luck on that.

 

[kewljason]

he's nobody, nobody i tell yah.

good luck on that.

I understand your point, frog, but am just saying for me, they have to be separate. Other wise just going out to dinner and a movie I will feel like I am spending my bankroll. :laugh: couldn't possibly enjoy myself.

 

[blackjack avenger]

to jason

Not doggie but froggie

There are 2? thoughts on how to handle expenses. One is your style of taking drawdowns from bank once X is won. The others are taking out fixed y continuously. Both seem valid.

It's unfortunate expenses are not discussed enough and the formulas can be beyond many.

Let's look at a quick example::cool2:

Player is betting with a fixed 10% ror.
He doubles his money and takes out half for expenses & starts over with a 10% ror. If he does this enough he will go broke. Faces the same issue if he resizes on losses.

 

[sagefr0g]

I understand your point, frog, but am just saying for me, they have to be separate. Other wise just going out to dinner and a movie I will feel like I am spending my bankroll. :laugh: couldn't possibly enjoy myself.

same here, lol. but then i'm cheap, really cheap.

 

[Machinist]

same here, lol. but then i'm cheap, really cheap.

Now that is the underststement of the year!!!!!!!!

Mac

 

[Craps Master]

Hello All,

I have been following the site for some time now and really enjoy the comments.

A friend who is an AP (and a very good one at that) and I are heading to vegas for about 3 weeks soon and are bringing a BR of about 40k....I am not an AP just a good BS player, we will be playing as a team with me coming in only on positive counts and him flat betting. is this a realistic BR? to play with and possibly make a career out of?? your thoughts and experiences are greatly appreciated.

Thanks all

At the very least you should learn a high count basic strategy. Basic strategy was developed for a count of zero. You will not be playing when the count is zero, so you should use a different basic strategy, one for a higher count. Your friend should be able to put together something that is appropriate.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

At the very least you should learn a high count basic strategy. Basic strategy was developed for a count of zero. You will not be playing when the count is zero, so you should use a different basic strategy, one for a higher count. Your friend should be able to put together something that is appropriate.

I was just going to say this- Counter's Basic Strategy!

Always:
Stand 16 vs. 10, 12 vs. 3
Double 9 vs. 2, 11 vs. A, A8 vs. 6

That gets you most of the way there.