Losing game. +0 count

[kcchiefsfan1982]

The blackjack simulator i run shows a bet spread of 10 to be something like the following:

+0 0 units
+1 1 unit
+2 3 units
+3 5 units
+4 7 units

etc.

Why is +0 0 units? is that realistic? if you start a shoe, isn't it 0?

Right now, when i put 1 unit at +0, it shows a losing game!

 

[DSchles]

Clearly, you or the simulator is doing something wrong. Is it set for play-all, or is is set for back-counting, in which case you don''t bet at zero?

What simulator are you using? Check your settings.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Black jack All-in-one app on android.

If i play the following is this a winning game...

+0 1 unit
+1 1 unit
+2 3 units
+3 5 units
+4 and greater 7 units.

$5000 bank roll, and $10 minimum. wong out at -1.

illustrious 18 top 5 deviations such as buy insurance at +3, stand on 16 vs 10 in positive count, etc.

 

[BoSox]

Why is +0 0 units? is that realistic? if you start a shoe, isn't it 0?

Right now, when i put 1 unit at +0, it shows a losing game!

You are not accounting for the upfront house edge based on the house rules that you setup. You should have stated all of that in the first post along with the # of decks used, and the depth of the cut.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

You are not accounting for the upfront house edge based on the house rules that you setup. You should have stated all of that in the first post along with the # of decks used, and the depth of the cut.

ok so it is the most common non vegas rules

$10 min, 6 deck, 85% pen, split to 4 times, DAS, cannot re split aces, dealer hits soft 17, 3 to 2 on black Jack

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

The blackjack simulator i run shows a bet spread of 10 to be something like the following:

+0 0 units
+1 1 unit
+2 3 units
+3 5 units
+4 7 units

etc.

Why is +0 0 units? is that realistic? if you start a shoe, isn't it 0?

Right now, when i put 1 unit at +0, it shows a losing game!

Why would you want to bet at +0?

 

[JohnCrover]

That should be a clearly beatable game given the rules and ramp.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

That should be a clearly beatable game given the rules and ramp.

thanks. I'm going for it.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

i guess, technically, if you start a shoe and it goes low count immediately...that means you got the big cards that should've helped you. But, then ya gotta get up!

you guys are right, i do realize, i wasted my time on the $5 tables, playing through the negative counts trying not to lose my seat.

Even in the last two nights, playing the $10 and wonging out, i am seeing the difference already. At least i am leaning my lesson.

 

[BoSox]

kcchiefsfan1982, I see some very possible pitfalls in what you described, but I will start with the one positive thing going for you is the depth of the cut. Although that one positive thing could very easily end up biting you in the ass. Deep cuts result in higher variance, which is what we are all looking for PROVIDED we are properly bankrolled to withstand big swings.

With what you have described I see plenty of red flags for possible trouble ahead stated below starting with:

Playing with a small limited playing bank, while playing a game with H17 without the late surrender option which is extremely valuable to card counters, especially those with limited playing banks.

In post #3 you state that you are going to use the top 5 deviations from the I-18, that is a good start but frankly, you must work a lot harder than that. Beating blackjack is one tough proposition and you better come to the battle prepared or else pay the price.

Not knowing the upfront house edge for the game that you are playing.
Using a spread without knowing the plus or minus edges per each true count. For that matter not knowing the frequency of occurring percentages of these same true counts.

Sorry if I am being a hard ass, but it is better that you hear it here first.

 

[Hell'nBack]

A bankroll of $5K translates into a top bet of $50 if you stick to a half Kelly betting model. That means in a 6 deck game you can an hourly win rate of about $12/hr. With surrender it will be a little higher. Most of the players in my area wouldn't bother but your goals might be much different from theirs.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

A bankroll of $5K translates into a top bet of $50 if you stick to a half Kelly betting model. That means in a 6 deck game you can an hourly win rate of about $12/hr. With surrender it will be a little higher. Most of the players in my area wouldn't bother but your goals might be much different from theirs.

yeah my goals are to enjoy these casino hang out for a few years while building my bank roll both with black Jack and with my regular job....in 4 years if i can travel and play, that would be great!

Im a big time introvert, so this gives me a social life.

 

[Hell'nBack]

Maybe you enjoy kidding yourself.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Maybe you enjoy kidding yourself.

How do you figure?

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

kcchiefsfan1982, I see some very possible pitfalls in what you described, but I will start with the one positive thing going for you is the depth of the cut. Although that one positive thing could very easily end up biting you in the ass. Deep cuts result in higher variance, which is what we are all looking for PROVIDED we are properly bankrolled to withstand big swings.

With what you have described I see plenty of red flags for possible trouble ahead stated below starting with:

Playing with a small limited playing bank, while playing a game with H17 without the late surrender option which is extremely valuable to card counters, especially those with limited playing banks.

In post #3 you state that you are going to use the top 5 deviations from the I-18, that is a good start but frankly, you must work a lot harder than that. Beating blackjack is one tough proposition and you better come to the battle prepared or else pay the price.

Not knowing the upfront house edge for the game that you are playing.
Using a spread without knowing the plus or minus edges per each true count. For that matter not knowing the frequency of occurring percentages of these same true counts.

Sorry if I am being a hard ass, but it is better that you hear it here first.

I'll be honest...I don't know what you said entirely.

I heard what John Crover said though. Should be a CLEARLY BEATABLE game.

I am going to go w/ that one. Wish me luck!!!!!!! Or wish me Odds. Throw the luck to the gamblers.

 

[BoSox]

I'll be honest...I don't know what you said entirely.

I heard what John Crover said though. Should be a CLEARLY BEATABLE game.

I am going to go w/ that one. Wish me luck!!!!!!! Or wish me Odds. Throw the luck to the gamblers.

Of course, I wish you the best. Have a nice trip and enjoy yourself.

Now you listed two completely different spreads "in post#1 and #3" that believe it or not are worlds apart and I am not sure if you realize it or not. The spread you used in post #1 is the best choice by far for you at this point in time given your relatively new to the game stature. At this point in time if you go by the spread that you made in post #3 you could very well be asking for trouble. With your current skill level at a TC of+1 playing against that described game you very well may be at best at a zero EV proposition remember that. Wong in and out where you can.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Of course, I wish you the best. Have a nice trip and enjoy yourself.

Now you listed two completely different spreads "in post#1 and #3" that believe it or not are worlds apart and I am not sure if you realize it or not. The spread you used in post #1 is the best choice by far for you at this point in time given your relatively new to the game stature. At this point in time if you go by the spread that you made in post #3 you could very well be asking for trouble. With your current skill level at a TC of+1 playing against that described game you very well may be at best at a zero EV proposition remember that. Wong in and out where you can.

ok yeah, well, i always start a new shoe...instead of wonging in. I will work a little harder to not start until it is positive.

But, I always wong out now. The floor guy even got annoyed, I could tell, at one of my many "coloring in" moments.

 

[BoSox]

Im a big time introvert, so this gives me a social life.

I hope that the casino experience does not wrongly influence you with the outside world. In the casino world sometimes you won't only lose your wallet but the plops will literally skin you alive. Plops blame everyone else around them for their own misfortune, and the insults can get quite nasty at times. Please beware if you think playing blackjack is a great way to socialize. The plops are going to attempt to train you that it is a team sport, so beware anytime money is involved.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I hope that the casino experience does not wrongly influence you with the outside world. In the casino world sometimes you won't only lose your wallet but the plops will literally skin you alive. Plops blame everyone else around them for their own misfortune, and the insults can get quite nasty at times. Please beware if you think playing blackjack is a great way to socialize. The plops are going to attempt to train you that it is a team sport, so beware anytime money is involved.

Ive thrown my share of f bombs at a few odd them already.