I'm a beginner card counter using the Hi-Lo count. I've been playing $25 double deck games. The penetration on double deck is usually a full deck and 1/4 into the second deck. So the opportunity to increase the bet size is only at the very end with one or two hands left for play in the shoe. I usually start the count at minus one to be conservative on the count (also counting the burn card as a 10 or Ace) and when the true count gets to plus 3 or higher I will double my betting unit. I've been noticing at positive counts the dealer gets a winning hand of 20 or Blackjack more frequently than the players getting solid hands or blackjacks. I've also noticed I've been getting more winning streaks (3 or 4 wins in a row) on my minimum bets when the count is in the minus. Anyone else noticing this type of trend or is it just me?
Losing in the positive counts - advice?
- Thread starter pyedog80
- Start date
callipygian
Well-Known Member
There's no reason to do this unless you can't keep track of the count well (in which case you shouldn't be at a table at all). Treat unseen cards as 0.pyedog80 said:
You should probably be more aggressive than this. I'm not 100% sure you're playing with an advantage here, as +3 isn't super common. Remember, you need to bet enough at higher counts to offset the fact that you're playing at a disadvantage on lower counts.pyedog80 said:
Here's where you need to be a little more precise in order to fully see what's happening.pyedog80 said:
The count being high, BY ITSELF, doesn't give you an advantage. The reason why you win more when the count is high is because you're hoping the count will come down - i.e. lots of tens and aces will come out. If the count is high and holds steady or goes up, then you SHOULD be losing those, because the high cards you were expecting haven't come out yet!
Likewise, if the count is neutral and takes a nosedive into negative territory, you should expect to win a lot of those - because a lot of tens and aces came out. Unfortunately, if the count is neutral you had a small bet out, so you won only a little.
That all being said, when the count is high, you're absolutely right that the dealer will get blackjack more often than when the count is low. That's GOOD for the player, since the player gets paid 3:2 on blackjacks. The actual win percentage doesn't change much with the count: at TC -5, you win 42%, lose 50%, and push 8%. At TC +5, you win 44%, lose 48%, and push 8%. The edge you get comes from the fact that you (a) bet more, and (b) are more likely to double and split, meaning that each of your wins will count more. You're still expected to lose more often than you win at very high counts.
jack.jackson
Well-Known Member
What are the rules??pyedog80 said:
creeping panther
Banned
Pyedog
I also play only DD with rather fine attributes and do not experience what you describe. (Nor for that matter what others have described).
Skillz sets matter a great deal in ones playing experiences.
It sounds like your game may need improving....?
Never underestimate the great advantage playing a LS dd game can give a skilled AP when in those very advantageous times and things do not go as planned.
Maybe you should find a LS dd game and develope very advanced skillz sets to improve upon your experiences.
Best to you.
CP.
I also play only DD with rather fine attributes and do not experience what you describe. (Nor for that matter what others have described).
Skillz sets matter a great deal in ones playing experiences.
It sounds like your game may need improving....?
Never underestimate the great advantage playing a LS dd game can give a skilled AP when in those very advantageous times and things do not go as planned.
Maybe you should find a LS dd game and develope very advanced skillz sets to improve upon your experiences.
Best to you.
CP.
la_dee_daa
Well-Known Member
This is what seperates the lucky people in life from the unlucky people in life. pure and simpleInPlay said:
.spread 1-2 isn't enough from what im hearing. you should be really spreading to something like 6-8 units. and you are using BS right? never hurts to ask.
:cow:
The rules are 2 deck, dealer hit's soft 17, double after splitting allowed, double on any 2 cards, no surrender.
Callipygian thanks that comment on losing as the count rises makes sense. Yes since I am a beginner I start the count more conservatively but can keep the count accurately in a double deck game. I also start the count at -1 because at true count 0 or starting a fresh shoe the player starts at a -0.5% disadvantage or more with rules like dealer hits soft 17. I am also a recreational player but have been counting cards as I play. I am not good enough to try to do this for a living, but casually play for fun and it's nice to win a little at a time. It does make sense on the comment that as the count rises positive the more you lose as smaller cards are dealt. But I would also think betting higher at the peak of the count +4 or +6 gives the player more statistical edge (1.5~2.5%) than betting higher at a declining count of +2 or +1. In double deck games it is not very common to get a high positive count to where you can ride the declining count before it gets back to zero or in the minus again.
Callipygian thanks that comment on losing as the count rises makes sense. Yes since I am a beginner I start the count more conservatively but can keep the count accurately in a double deck game. I also start the count at -1 because at true count 0 or starting a fresh shoe the player starts at a -0.5% disadvantage or more with rules like dealer hits soft 17. I am also a recreational player but have been counting cards as I play. I am not good enough to try to do this for a living, but casually play for fun and it's nice to win a little at a time. It does make sense on the comment that as the count rises positive the more you lose as smaller cards are dealt. But I would also think betting higher at the peak of the count +4 or +6 gives the player more statistical edge (1.5~2.5%) than betting higher at a declining count of +2 or +1. In double deck games it is not very common to get a high positive count to where you can ride the declining count before it gets back to zero or in the minus again.
Haha yes I said I'm a beginner "card counter" not a total beginner. I've been playing recreationally with basic strategy when I take trips to a riverboat casino or taking trips to vegas but just moved to a location with several riverboat casinos and so have started using card counting for the past 4 months to try some numbers variations and using some betting spreads to determine my expected value. So far I've racked up about 12,000 hands of play (with counting) and am a little below my expected value but was hoping to be more in the positive side of the standard dev. I may need to play at a lower minimum table to increase my spreads but I don't like to play at $10 or $15 dollar tables as those tables are very full and usually double deck games start at $25 min anyway. So is there a consensus that you should start to increase your bet only at the declining edge of a positive count? For example +2 +3 +4 +5 +4 (increase bet) +3 +2 (minimum bet) +1 0...thanks for the advice.la_dee_daa said:This is what seperates the lucky people in life from the unlucky people in life. pure and simple
spread 1-2 isn't enough from what im hearing. you should be really spreading to something like 6-8 units. and you are using BS right? never hurts to ask.
:cow:
ihate17
Well-Known Member
fear of losing in positive counts
The fear of losses in positive counts can cause some new counters to fear spreading properly. It, in your case perhaps, can cause the counter to become so conservative that not only does he not really spread (1-2) but he lowers his count.
You are playing a double deck game with other players and 39 cards behind the cut card. If you begin your running count with -1, when you get near the cut card your count will always be off by 1, so your +3 described earlier is a +4. Not a huge difference day by day but it could be a big difference over your blackjack life.
Much more important is in a game where most say your spread should be 1-8 you are spreading 1-2. Now most double deck games are no mid shoe entry and if that is the case in your game, you are playing all. The only way I believe you can maintain an advantage in this kind of game with a 1-2 spread is with wonging and most likely it is not allowed so you must spread more.
Basically only raising your bet at +3 (which is often +4) and the rules of your game, you have become a flat better who plays basic strategy with counting indices (I took this for granted), or a lifetime loser at this game.
You should be spreading and even though there will be times where it appears that the blackjacks go to the dealer, over time those numbers must even out and your big bet blackjacks, doubles and splits are the factors that will make you a lifetime winner.
When that negative variance raises it's ugly head you must just understand that it happens and keep playing a winning game. If you have found that this is something you can not do then play your way but understand that you will not overcome the house edge.
ihate17
The fear of losses in positive counts can cause some new counters to fear spreading properly. It, in your case perhaps, can cause the counter to become so conservative that not only does he not really spread (1-2) but he lowers his count.
You are playing a double deck game with other players and 39 cards behind the cut card. If you begin your running count with -1, when you get near the cut card your count will always be off by 1, so your +3 described earlier is a +4. Not a huge difference day by day but it could be a big difference over your blackjack life.
Much more important is in a game where most say your spread should be 1-8 you are spreading 1-2. Now most double deck games are no mid shoe entry and if that is the case in your game, you are playing all. The only way I believe you can maintain an advantage in this kind of game with a 1-2 spread is with wonging and most likely it is not allowed so you must spread more.
Basically only raising your bet at +3 (which is often +4) and the rules of your game, you have become a flat better who plays basic strategy with counting indices (I took this for granted), or a lifetime loser at this game.
You should be spreading and even though there will be times where it appears that the blackjacks go to the dealer, over time those numbers must even out and your big bet blackjacks, doubles and splits are the factors that will make you a lifetime winner.
When that negative variance raises it's ugly head you must just understand that it happens and keep playing a winning game. If you have found that this is something you can not do then play your way but understand that you will not overcome the house edge.
ihate17
Which is....? You're how far below? How did you figure it out?pyedog80 said:
Anything at all that makes you think you've been playing with an overall advantage?
What kind of other stuff, if any, do you keep track of besides hands played? - assuming as I do you actually write something down after a session or 2 kind of thing? Or is that just a broad estimate looking back on 4 months of playing while counting kind of thing?
At least consider the possibility that a total beginner who has never played BJ before might actually be better off betting min at a low limit table using only a BS card compared to a beginning card-counter who may actually just be betting alot more money in a neg EV game but not really know it.
Yeah, but you're only one vote.moo321 said:
He wants a consensus of utter strangers to bless his money.
After, apparently, 12000 hands and maybe $300000-$400000 of wagers later.
May he go with God if we're both out-consensused by the next 3 voters
Funny stuff.
If it weren't so sad.
If one can even believe it.
callipygian
Well-Known Member
Of course!pyedog80 said:
I think you're misunderstanding me. The count ALWAYS indicates your expected FUTURE advantage. You never know whether the count is going to increase or decrease when you put your bet out. That's why you bet big on higher counts, whether you're dropping from an astronomical count or rising from a neutral count. You should NEVER bet based on whether the count is rising or dropping.
However, once the cards have been played, the exact count doesn't matter and whether the count is dropping or rising has EVERYTHING to do with whether you just won that hand. A lot of players erroneously correlate the count BEFORE the cards are dealt with the result AFTER the cards are dealt.
Examples:
- "How could I have lost that hand, the count was +8?"
- "The count has been at +5 for 3 hands in a row and I've lost all three!"
- etc.
The truth is that once your hand has been played, you know the exact count for the slug of cards you just played. It doesn't matter whether the count was +2 or -2 before the hand - after the hand is played, the best indicator of whether you should have won or lost is whether the count dropped or rose. If, every round, the count kept increasing, it should be no surprise that you lost a lot of hands - you played a ton of negative cards and few positive cards.
You had no way of knowing that would happen BEFORE the cards were dealt, and the reason why you bet big was in the expectation that a high count would eventually drop and all the tens and aces would come out. At high counts, the probability of the count dropping is high; at low counts, the probability of the count dropping more is low.
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
pyedog80 said:
this may be a stupid question... but this isnt a csm is it?
Geez you guys are critical to new members seeking advice from this forum. I do appreciate the criticisms and scrutiny of my lack of play and conservatism since we are all here to learn and share experiences but we all start from somewhere and not looking to become a blackjack money making machine (at least not just yet). I was seeking some additional advice and am sure everything evens out in the long term with optimal play. I will study all the advice regarding the spreads of 1~6 units and being more aggressive with my play. Thanks for the kick in the butt.
In addition the riverboat casinos here have a limit buy in of $500 every two hours so having a $100+ dollar bet out there and losing on a split or double is a big swing. So far I've been pretty good about winning a little at a time and leaving before the cards go south. Blackjack is a streaky game do you guys battle it through the bad streaks or do you leave after 3 or so losses in a row?
In addition the riverboat casinos here have a limit buy in of $500 every two hours so having a $100+ dollar bet out there and losing on a split or double is a big swing. So far I've been pretty good about winning a little at a time and leaving before the cards go south. Blackjack is a streaky game do you guys battle it through the bad streaks or do you leave after 3 or so losses in a row?
So far I have 12000+ hands accumulated with about 420000 total. I would like to think my EV is about 1% for 4200 with a stand dev of +- 4217. My actual winnings are at 1400 currently. I understand this is still short term and can't really tell anything from these results. I know my conservative bets are not optimal for max edge but I also hope I am not playing a negative game. From the recent trends of losing on positive counts if I were at the full spread I would be at a pretty big loss and so was seeking advice from some more experienced players.EasyRhino said:
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
True Count Theorem?
On losing in positive counts - Yep, it happens. No one is going to win every hand, shoe, trip or longer.
I once lost 5 - 8 medium advantage 2 hand rounds in a row; the dealer was wincing every hand, and that is with the good cards falling. I think it was every hand of the shoe. The dealer advised me to leave. Well I eventually did. LOL
On average in positive counts the running count drops while on average the true count remains the same. On average in negative counts the running count rises while the true count remains the same.callipygian said:
On losing in positive counts - Yep, it happens. No one is going to win every hand, shoe, trip or longer.
I once lost 5 - 8 medium advantage 2 hand rounds in a row; the dealer was wincing every hand, and that is with the good cards falling. I think it was every hand of the shoe. The dealer advised me to leave. Well I eventually did. LOL
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