Luck

[JLP]

A few thoughts and questions:

Please keep in mind that I'm a novice!

On average the "house" has a slight advantage over the player! This means on an average session/day of playing, when it all is balanced out, the "house" would have come up with slightly more winning hands?!

For those that don't believe in "good luck" or "bad luck".
Why is it that winning and loosing streaks occur?
Why is it that on some sessions/days, the dealer pulls off miracles, even with 2,3,4,5 and 6 up cards?
Why is it that on some sessions/days, we draw nothing but 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16s and bust or get beat?

I have verified this with some dealers, (and repeatedly experienced through playing)both in Las Vegas [El Cortez] and at Wendover [Montego Bay, Rainbow], that Oriental woman dealers are deadly as far as luck; casinos love to hire them for that reason. In general, older woman dealers are luckier then others.

This brings me to the next questions:
What is luck, why are some luckier then others, and can luck be stimulated?

Peace!

 

[learning to count]

JLP the only way to tell that you are lucky is looking at past circumstances. There is no way you can predict luck. With card counting you at least know when there is an advantage for you to win money. The more complex the count the better at predicting the out come of each hand. If you feel that you can predict a streak and can prove you have such mystical power I will back you at the tables. Otherwise start reading more about how card counting works. So, no more silly ploppy nonsense.

 

[The Mayor]

Sorry to be so harsh on you, I apologize in advance. You said you are a beginner, so that is no doubt the view you have. But here is the truth.

Your post is sheer nonsense.

With kindest regards,

Mayor

 

[Eminem]

Luck is the fluctuations that u will experience with games of probabilities.
Positive fluctuations that favours u is what u would consider as "GOOD LUCK", while negative fluctuations is what u call "BAD LUCK".
Please notice that card counting is all about probabilities where u try to gain an insight as to the probable outcome of the future hands. "Probable" is not "certainty", so u'd expect those miracle hands(as u'd call them) to occur. A more complex count will give u a slightly more accurate judgment on the probable advantage or disadvantage of the next hand. Most of the time u'd find that, if a few different counts were used on the same table, the bet-up time is about the same. However there are times when a more complex counting strategy will pick out advantage hands which werent picked up by simpler counting strategies.
If u are going to make something out of card counting, the first thing u need to drill into ur head is the fact that miracle hands do happen even though they r unlikely ("unlikely" does not equal to "never happen").
Playing probable advantage hands with card counting requires alot of patient and self discipline, u need to grind it out into the long run. Dont flatter urself with short term high positive fluctuations, and dont get too upset with negative fluctuations (cos SHXT does happen at times). Just do ur thing and do it well and thou shall be blessed with glory.

 

[learning to count]

Excellent post buuuuut I have to disagree with the following;

""Luck is the fluctuations that u will experience with games of probabilities.
Positive fluctuations that favours u is what u would consider as "GOOD LUCK", while negative fluctuations is what u call "BAD LUCK.""

Fluctuations are just the movement above and below and along the x line if x=o. These are the normal movement of the situation at hand. If you did look at the whole deck and knew every card that came out you could make perfect decisions. Since a person playing the game does not have this information the results are linked to a metaphysical belief of luck. Just because you cant see all the cards does not support the luck theory. Card counting allows you to gain information that gets you closer to that knowledge and to allow you to play the advantage. Now the only other weakness and I always ponder is that statiscally all simulations are finite but the actual formula could be drawn out to infinity. But since we are finite we have to accept the simulations. Just my math ignorant humble oppinion.

 

[Ed Tice]

Of course the thing with luck (or variance) is that it makes it hard to judge your own play! You might be making lots of mistakes counting but still come out ahead. Soon you trust your abilities only to get wiped out. Or maybe you are a great counter who comes out way behind on some sessions and gives it up.

The hard part of measuring your blackjack performance can be that its hard to see the trendlines quickly enough to make adjustments if you are playing a losing game!

The pit boss wont come tell you that you put out too big of a bet for a TC or that you should have deviated from basic strategy based on the count... (although if you ever find one who would, let me know, I'll be in that casino).

So in that regard, all luck is bad luck... if they'd just give me 0.5% of my wager on every hand I played...

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Pure Math

What is pure math, pure truth, pure anything, can be turned into pure garbage by our own interpretation of it after the fact. I've had the noodles and wontons kicked out of me, and crushed the chicken balls and busted sweat and sour spare ribs off of different dealers. Good luck is how many hands won in a row? Bad luck is how many hands lost in a row? Time and time again I get people telling me "I lost 7 hands in a row at this place. Is that normal?" It is normal if you have been playing for 5 years because it has happened to you over and over again. It is still normal if you have never played a hand in your life. What you need is someone, like the Mayor, who has experience to pass on to pass it on, and that is what he is doing. You are learning about yourself at the same time you are learning about Blackjack.

You will find most dealers seem "lucky" because they have the house edge on their side. Once you have the edge you will find your "luck" changing.

Rob McLucky

 

[zshell]

Statistically, your sample size is smaller than it should be.

 

[learning to count]

"The hard part of measuring your blackjack performance can be that its hard to see the trendlines quickly enough to make adjustments if you are playing a losing game!"

Interesting...."see the trendlines quickly enough..." silly ploppy voodoo nonsense. Good post though. I do aggree with leaving a game that your losing at a rate that will obviously burn out your bankroll. If you lose close to half its time to stop and adjust your bet rates or stop all together and do some soul searching. I am weak and I will bail if my Bankroll is in danger. There are other days to do battle. IMHO LTC

 

[The Mayor]

Re: Pure Math

Or how about this definition of "luck":

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

 

[Titaniumman]

On another subject, ED - ripping off BJ21.com

I see that you and somebody called Caitlin Weaver are discussing on Card Counter Cafe "sharing a Greenchip membership".

Sharing a membership is theft. BJ21.com is a reputable site owned by Stanford Wong that provides many free services to the blackjack community and many more services for a very cheap price to Greenchip members.

You appear to be new to the community, but I see you are posting here, on CCC, and on RGE. Ripping off one of the sites will not put you in good stead with the other members of the community.

Keep in mind that the management of this site is good friends with the management of BJ21.com. I am very confident that they will look upon this endeavor with as ill a view as I and many others do.

I would strongly advise you to apologize to the BJ21 administration.

-T-

 

[Al Rogers]

Theft of services

"Sharing" a Green Chip password is stealing. When we determine that someone is sharing their password, we terminate their membership.

Green Chip is only $12.25 per quarter. If someone can't afford that, they shouldn't even be thinking about casino games.

Thanks, Titaniumman, for pointing out this attempted theft.

Al Rogers
BJ21.com

[email protected]

 

[The Mayor]

Re: Theft of services

The community of advantage players is a small one. Mostly we know each other, and we very much like and respect each other.

I have the highest regard for those who run bj21.com and bjforum.com, and am good friends with many of the principles. I will do everything in my power to cooperate with them with on matters such as this.

I completely agree with Al and T-man -- sharing a gc subscription is stealing and has no place in our community. There is so much money to be made that one time costs are a third-order term that should be ignored by the serious advantage player. That is, get your own subscription!

We are here to support each other.

--Mayor

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Pure Math

Old but still true Mayor.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Theft of services

Welcome to our tight knit community Ed! I was hoping someone would have taken a strip off him where the crime was brewing up. Like I said about AS ST cookbook: it's pretty cheap for any tracker, and worth it if you want to learn to track. Give Ed a bit of time to get his bankroll rolling and he'll make a great customer to keep all the big names in the book selling business happy! ;> No theft was committed I hope, and Ed has been saved from a life of crime by all the King's men.

 

[learning to count]

Re: Theft of services

WHew and I thought the casinos were watching! All is forgiven Ed just dont piss off the BEAR! His bite is much worse then his growl. I know I have seen the bear in action! $12.50 is cheap. Hell a carton of Cigs are 17 dollars. All ya get from cigarettes is cancer. Greenchip I must say is very valuable!

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Theft of services

I've never had the urge to join GC. Maybe because I live in 8deckville Ontario, or because I've never heard anything fantastic about it. Tell me why you like GC LTC

I never had the urge to get a copy of BJF until Barry Meadow's new article was added to it. Was impressed with it.

 

[Titaniumman]

The question is, why didn't you, Rob?

I was hoping someone would have taken a strip off him where the crime was brewing up.

I don't Yahoo. I only occasionally check out CCC, and I go through BJ21's link to get there. I don't know the pecking order of CCC, but you seem to be the head honcho there.

I was having a slow afternoon at work in the Eastern Time Zone today when I read the "BJ21 Conspiracy". I was dismayed. I had already read some of Ed's posts over at RGE, but for obvious reasons, I no longer post there unless necessary.

Since I don't post on CCC, I tried to respond on this site, but my work computer as well as I did not know my password which was at home. I had to wait until I got home to respond to this mess that was posted two days ago on Monday.

Ed seems to be a nice enough guy, but committed a serious error in judgement. I feel I gave him an out by stating he appears to be new to the community, and he should apologize to BJ21. The real culprit is this Caitlin Weaver who is trying to make this deal by private email.

Welcome to our tight knit community...

Tighten it up Rob, and deal with Caitlin Weaver. Do the right thing. The smallness of the dollar doesn't matter. I've already proven that. Right is might.

-T-

 

[learning to count]

Re: Theft of services

Rob Greenchip is a must. No man is an island. Greenchip has been invaluable to me as has cbjn. I have made numerous contacts with many other advantage players who have intelligence of advantages in gaming around the world. Green chip has also taken me from ploppyhood to playing at a professional level at not just black jack but other positive EV situations. Rob if anything, being affiliated with one of the blackjack gods and I mean Stanford Wong is worth the $12.50 alone. Rob your missing the boat.

 

[Al Rogers]

Unable to post at Card Counters Cafe

I tried to respond to the posts of the two would-be scoundrels, but my posts did not appear.

I have never posted anything on any Yahoo site, so maybe I just don't understand how to navigate the board. Or is it a moderated site, and my posts were not "allowed"?

Al Rogers

[email protected]