I wrote an article on my recent exploits playing LL. It is "mostly" factual -- that's all I can say 
http://bjinsider.com/newsletter_42_ladies.shtml
--Mayor
http://bjinsider.com/newsletter_42_ladies.shtml
--Mayor
Lucky Lady article
- Thread starter The Mayor
- Start date
learning to count
Well-Known Member
Mayor could you post a similar report as the one below for a six deck game with the tc indexes for HI-LOW. Sounds like you had geat time in the green felt jungle. Can I be part of your team some day?Thanks LTC
Lucky Ladies Report**
====================================================================================
Number of decks: 2
number of hands: 1000000000
Penetration: 66 cards
Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $26.9086
Wager is made 8.11159 times per 100 rounds (per hour)
Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $3.31731
Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 10
Standard deviation per hand is: $52.2784
Desirability index for this system: 63.4546
TC %EV
<=0 -26.56
1 -21.93
2 -19.25
3 -17.35
4 -14.42
5 -10.99
6 -8.76
7 -6.36
8 -3.39
9 -1.14
10 2.05
11 4.67
12 7.06
13 10.88
14 13.22
15 16.47
16 21.33
17 24.27
18 27.16
19 30.72
>=20 35.18
====================================================================================
** This from an article by Eliot Jacobson aka Da Mayor in the july issue of the LV Insider E magazine. Henry Tamburine Editor
Thanks LTCLucky Ladies Report**
====================================================================================
Number of decks: 2
number of hands: 1000000000
Penetration: 66 cards
Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $26.9086
Wager is made 8.11159 times per 100 rounds (per hour)
Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $3.31731
Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 10
Standard deviation per hand is: $52.2784
Desirability index for this system: 63.4546
TC %EV
<=0 -26.56
1 -21.93
2 -19.25
3 -17.35
4 -14.42
5 -10.99
6 -8.76
7 -6.36
8 -3.39
9 -1.14
10 2.05
11 4.67
12 7.06
13 10.88
14 13.22
15 16.47
16 21.33
17 24.27
18 27.16
19 30.72
>=20 35.18
====================================================================================
** This from an article by Eliot Jacobson aka Da Mayor in the july issue of the LV Insider E magazine. Henry Tamburine Editor
Joe Schmoe
Member
Galaxy Gaming odds are correct!
When getting a QH pair, you have to make sure the dealer doesn't get a blackjack. Since you have 2QH there are 30 tens and 8 aces left in the two decks. So the probability of a dealer blackjack is (240/102C2) and the probability of the dealer not getting a blackjack is (4911/102C2) or (4911/5151). There is only one combination for the QH pair, so the probability is (1/104C2) or (1/5356).
So the overall probability is (1/5356)*(4911/5151) = 0.000178
The odds are 1 in 5617.7
Galaxy Gaming is correct!
When getting a QH pair, you have to make sure the dealer doesn't get a blackjack. Since you have 2QH there are 30 tens and 8 aces left in the two decks. So the probability of a dealer blackjack is (240/102C2) and the probability of the dealer not getting a blackjack is (4911/102C2) or (4911/5151). There is only one combination for the QH pair, so the probability is (1/104C2) or (1/5356).
So the overall probability is (1/5356)*(4911/5151) = 0.000178
The odds are 1 in 5617.7
Galaxy Gaming is correct!
Here it is ... Hi Lo
Just so you know, this is the only sim I am going to run of another system. All standard counting systems are weak for the LL bet, and just not worthwhile to sim. See the article http://www.cardcounter.com/Lucky_Ladies.htm (Archive copy) for more about these systems.
I will sim using Hi-Lo for the 2 deck and 6 deck games, with decent penetration, playing through all counts. I should also sim Hi-Lo for wonging the 6 deck games and for the 6 deck payouts for the 2 deck games (e.g. at the Station properties), but it is more than I want to do, given the low returns offered.
Here ya go.
Just so you know, this is the only sim I am going to run of another system. All standard counting systems are weak for the LL bet, and just not worthwhile to sim. See the article http://www.cardcounter.com/Lucky_Ladies.htm (Archive copy) for more about these systems.
I will sim using Hi-Lo for the 2 deck and 6 deck games, with decent penetration, playing through all counts. I should also sim Hi-Lo for wonging the 6 deck games and for the 6 deck payouts for the 2 deck games (e.g. at the Station properties), but it is more than I want to do, given the low returns offered.
Here ya go.
Code:
*******************
Lucky Ladies Report
*******************
Number of decks: 2
number of hands: 100000000
Penetration: 70 cards.
Payoff schedule:
Any 20: 4-to-1
Suited 20: 10-to-1
Matched 20: 25-to-1
QH pair: 200-to-1
QH pair + BJ: 1000-to-1
Count system:
A: -1
2: 1
3: 1
4: 1
5: 1
6: 1
7: 0
8: 0
9: 0
T: -1
QofH: -1
Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $9.81635
Wager is made 3.52951 times per 100 rounds (per hour)
Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $2.78122
Leave the table when true count falls below -99.
Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 7
Standard deviation per hand is: $29.7033
Desirability index for this system: 93.6334
TC %EV FREQ
<=0 -31.79 65372260
1 -20.1 11305311
2 -16.37 7499561
3 -12.53 4804497
4 -8.82 3446225
5 -5.15 2585009
6 -0.82 1457617
7 2.75 1287878
8 7.89 744171
9 10.45 469962
10 17.63 426616
11 21.67 265455
12 23.37 223274
13 29.00 146977
14 33.42 79577
15 38.46 42556
*******************
Lucky Ladies Report
*******************
Number of decks: 6
number of hands: 100000000
Penetration: 260 cards.
Payoff schedule:
Any 20: 4-to-1
Suited 20: 9-to-1
Matched 20: 20-to-1
QH pair: 150-to-1
QH pair + BJ: 1000-to-1
Count system:
A: -1
2: 1
3: 1
4: 1
5: 1
6: 1
7: 0
8: 0
9: 0
T: -1
QofH: -1
Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $5.49835
Wager is made 2.62204 times per 100 rounds (per hour)
Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $2.09697
Leave the table when true count falls below -99.
Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 6
Standard deviation per hand is: $28.3887
Desirability index for this system: 73.8666
TC %EV FREQ
<=0 -28.12 71027494
1 -18.39 11550896
2 -14.48 6724839
3 -10.89 4036639
4 -6.73 2499272
5 -2.82 1538817
6 1.17 1012007
7 5.16 603159
8 10.19 391110
9 15.02 238749
10 18.15 147129
11 23.93 88518
12 28.72 51329
13 31.24 50542
14 38.08 16661
15 44.97 10197Black Jack Hack
New Member
Great article! Last year, I did some statistical analysis of the Lucky Ladies bet, and I, too, found it had a positive EV at a certain threshold TC in the count that I use.
Three thoughts on your article:
(1) I don't think the difference between FPLL and the 6/8 deck payoffs is that significant. By my calculation, 85.5% of your positive EV will come from the 4:1 and 9:1 payoffs, which are the same for 4,6 and 8 decks. The higher payoffs for the rarer hands won't increase your EV that much.
(2) For a green chip player like myself, the $26/hr win rate does not make it very attractive by itself. It is, however, an attractive side play. It could justify a lower spread, and, thus, enhance longevity and reduce bankroll volatility. In other words, it would make spreading 1:4 worthwhile at DD -- instead of spreading up to 8 or 10 units, just spread 1:4 and add the LL bet at very high counts. (Without heat, of course, you would want to spread 1:12 AND make the LL bet! I am guessing that your "candy store" wouldn't tolerate that for long, though.)
(3) Although you seem to have most interest in the DD application, I believe this sidebet could particularly effective for wonging into shoe games. At a sufficiently high TC, you might get a chance to place as many a 4-5 consecutive bets with a +20% EV! In a DD game, you might see that opportunity occur only once an hour.
Three thoughts on your article:
(1) I don't think the difference between FPLL and the 6/8 deck payoffs is that significant. By my calculation, 85.5% of your positive EV will come from the 4:1 and 9:1 payoffs, which are the same for 4,6 and 8 decks. The higher payoffs for the rarer hands won't increase your EV that much.
(2) For a green chip player like myself, the $26/hr win rate does not make it very attractive by itself. It is, however, an attractive side play. It could justify a lower spread, and, thus, enhance longevity and reduce bankroll volatility. In other words, it would make spreading 1:4 worthwhile at DD -- instead of spreading up to 8 or 10 units, just spread 1:4 and add the LL bet at very high counts. (Without heat, of course, you would want to spread 1:12 AND make the LL bet! I am guessing that your "candy store" wouldn't tolerate that for long, though.)
(3) Although you seem to have most interest in the DD application, I believe this sidebet could particularly effective for wonging into shoe games. At a sufficiently high TC, you might get a chance to place as many a 4-5 consecutive bets with a +20% EV! In a DD game, you might see that opportunity occur only once an hour.