Making the best of limited practice opportunities+

[Diver]

I'll be going to LV in a few weeks and will probably have to play some 6D games since there are not lots of DD with good rules and a minumum in line with my $25 unit bet. Also, I want to be alert to not playing too long at any one place. In my locale, the places with decent rules for 6D usually only have one table, so they don't offer much of an opportunity for wonging out as I see it. If I take a break at a poor count, it seems I would be left with either waiting for the next shoe or starting the count midstream and adjusting for the number of decks played---a technique discussed here but which seems somewhat uncertain to me. There are times I can spread to speed up the process, but often there aren't any spots open. Since I really need the real world practice vs. CV at home, I'm settling for betting the minimum (which is below my unit bet) when the count gets ugly (in line with the exit guidelines in KO. I then move to my true unit bet if the count improves beyond those guidelines. Any suggestions for how to best use this limited practice environment?

Nice fluctation note: after playing through crummy shoes for several hours, it makes it all the sweeter when the table clears for pit stops and the count jumps to +6 with a deck to go. Four BJ's in a roll with one max bet and some other large ones out certainly made up for getting beat on a number of big bets when the cut card came out before I could benefit from the positive count.

 

[shadroch]

What makes you think you can't find good DD at the $25 level?

 

[Diver]

I can, just not a lot.

What makes you think you can't find good DD at the $25 level?

Looking at CBJN, there are good DD games at with a minimum of $25 at some of the MGM properties which I intend to play. But after that, either the minimums go up or the house edge becomes more unfavorable. I'm a little apprehensive about my "act" since I appear very focussed and intense as a baseline, once I'm doing anything other than light conversation. Consequently, since I'm still very much in the mode of mastering the count, I'm a bit concerned about lingering too long. Maybe with a spread of $25-150, I'm being overly concerned. I'm hoping that becomes clearer once I get into it. One issue is that I'll be there during a really slow week, so I suppose I may be more vulnerable to heat than during typical times.

 

[EasyRhino]

I've heard that Mirage (and maybe even TI?) sometimes have their good DD game down to $25 min during slow times. They might have a rep for being surveilled more carefully.

Perhaps more importantly, if you go downtown or outskirts, or even to slots of fun, you can find DD games with $25 or lower minimums. Not always with nice MGM rules, but decent.

Regarding heat, I don't really have an act either (except for being generally distracted), but for what it's worth, a while back I played a 6D game at one of the properties with a $25-$300 spread for four hours on two days (same shift), and no one seemed to give a damn. I mean, they had $300,000 in chips in the rack, not like I was going to be emptying it any time soon.

A not of warning, I don't think $25-$150 in a near-play-all environment would be good at all vs a shoe. It's probably got a slight edge for you, but really, I don't think it would be high enough. I'd consider it a dead-even gamble. Either spread more (low end or high end) or wong more.

With wonging, one trick you can do in a tight environment is just wong out in a bad count, take a break, and return to the shoe around the time of the shuffle.

To give you an idea, a sloppy sim against a prototypical 6D shoe game with MGM rules, play-all reKO spreading $25-$150 gives a .5% advantage.

But, merely avoiding a good portion (not all) of negative hands, and still spreading $25-$150 puts the edge over 1.0%

Avoiding all counts below the key count could get your advantage up to 1.7% or so.

So, in conclusion, search for different games, don't sweat the sweat too much at MGM-mirage properties, don't do 1-7 play all, and work on wonging.

 

[Diver]

A not of warning, I don't think $25-$150 in a near-play-all environment would be good at all vs a shoe. It's probably got a slight edge for you, but really, I don't think it would be high enough. I'd consider it a dead-even gamble. Either spread more (low end or high end) or wong more.

With wonging, one trick you can do in a tight environment is just wong out in a bad count, take a break, and return to the shoe around the time of the shuffle.

To give you an idea, a sloppy sim against a prototypical 6D shoe game with MGM rules, play-all reKO spreading $25-$150 gives a .5% advantage.

But, merely avoiding a good portion (not all) of negative hands, and still spreading $25-$150 puts the edge over 1.0%

Avoiding all counts below the key count could get your advantage up to 1.7% or so.

So, in conclusion, search for different games, don't sweat the sweat too much at MGM-mirage properties, don't do 1-7 play all, and work on wonging.

I would spread $25-150 for DD and $15-150 for 6D. I'm not able to calculate the advantage and am basing the spreads mostly on guidelines in KOBJ and comments here. I figure my max bet at 1% of bankroll. Do you think the spread I indicated for DD is prudent?

 

[Kasi]

Do you think the spread I indicated for DD is prudent?

Oh sure.

I always think it's prudent to commit a $15K roll, in an unspecified game, or two, with an unspecified ramp as to how much and when, but apparently one where your min is less than your real unit bet, even though your real unit bet may actually be the min, played in an unspecified way, with or without indices, when you don't know your advantage, and, no doubt, don't have a clue as to your ROR or how much of your $15K you're taking with you to play for how long in at least one of those games anyway assuming you never make a mistake and never make a cover bet.

So put me in the "yes" column.

 

[shadroch]

Ditto.

 

[EasyRhino]

1-7 spread would be a spread that others have used in DD. Maybe a bit conservative, and yet possibly enough to get you backed off from touchy places. Advantage over 1% if penetration is good.

1-10 in 6D, play-all, would still be weak, under 1% advantage. ROR might get up over 10%. Basically, you've still got to wong whenever you can. Only way I'd possibly recommend something that conservative as a regular strategy would be if you were playing for comps for extended sessions at the hotel you're staying at.

But if you've got a place like the MGM Grand with about a zillion tables, it's just BEGGING you to hop between them.

I always think it's prudent to commit a $15K roll, in an unspecified game, or two, with an unspecified ramp as to how much and when, but apparently one where your min is less than your real unit bet, even though your real unit bet may actually be the min, played in an unspecified way, with or without indices, when you don't know your advantage, and, no doubt, don't have a clue as to your ROR or how much of your $15K you're taking with you to play for how long in at least one of those games anyway assuming you never make a mistake and never make a cover bet.

Well, hell, that's what I did for a while, with some success But if you're really really attached to that bankroll, you might want to bet less. The negative fluctuation can be a bitch even if the risk of (complete) ruin is under 10%. For instance, I'm currently "enjoying" a 25% bankroll drop even though my ROR is theoretically less than 5%.

 

[Diver]

Ouch

Oh sure.

I always think it's prudent to commit a $15K roll, in an unspecified game, or two, with an unspecified ramp as to how much and when, but apparently one where your min is less than your real unit bet, even though your real unit bet may actually be the min, played in an unspecified way, with or without indices, when you don't know your advantage, and, no doubt, don't have a clue as to your ROR or how much of your $15K you're taking with you to play for how long in at least one of those games anyway assuming you never make a mistake and never make a cover bet.

So put me in the "yes" column.

I was asking about the 6D all play only as concerns the local settings with only one table (H17,DAS, RSA, some LS-some NS). But in Vegas, I would definitely table hop on the 6D game as EasyRhino suggests. I prefer the DD game however, and I play using KO Preferred, Illustrious 18. I do make some occaisonal cover bets ---when the count is -2 or-1 and/or Ins with min. bet out. I was spreading $25-125 but am now using $150 as a max as the bank roll has grown. I'm planning on having $4K as a trip bankroll and while I could access more if needed, whether or not I did would depend on my sense of how well I was playing. The Vegas DD games I'm looking at either have a house edge of .19 (S17, DAS) or .40 (H17, DAS). The best I can get in DD locally is .40 and those have worked out very well for me. When I've played DD with nDAS, it's been more challenging but workable. I don't have a reliable win rate to use for the ROR calculation because I've allowed play correction for my CV sessions until recently. I definitely appreciate everyone's comments and I do realize I have work to do understanding and using the tools for advantage and bankroll calculations. If I had any falculty in math, I'd have stayed with my premed program, but I lost track of what was going on somewhere in high school algebra.

 

[Kasi]

but I lost track of what was going on somewhere in high school algebra.

Hey Diver - I hope you don't think I was too hard on you, Because you ask alot of excellent questions, the kind that should be asked.

I would think you might really benefit from a sim to answer them.

Just go slow buddy.

And then slower lol.

And good luck.

 

[Kasi]

I'm currently "enjoying" a 25% bankroll drop even though my ROR is theoretically less than 5%.

Well that's what I kinda mean. I mean you could have a 1 in 7 chance of losing 60% of your roll at some point. I don't know but I'm just saying no one seems to worry much about the chances af being down by something at some point.