Martingale with advantage

aslan

Well-Known Member
I wonder if martingales and other progressions actually speed up your winning when the advantage is on your side? How much does the advantage have to be on your side for this to work well in a practical sense? Or is it so much that in the real world it is not practical? For example, even with the dreaded Martingale, worst of all progressions, with a 2 ro 1 advantage, you may not be subject to long losing streaks in any practical sense. But then where can you ever get 2 to 1 and with those kind of odds who needs a martingale? Maybe just a pointless speculation.
 

sabre

Well-Known Member
Optimal betting involves wagering in proportion to your advantage. Using a martingale progression would lead you to grossly underbet at times, and overbet at other times.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
I wonder if martingales and other progressions actually speed up your winning when the advantage is on your side?
They might when compared to flat betting. If your average bet is higher using a progression system then your EV will be higher. But, as aslan pointed out, proportional betting will always be the fastest and safest way to increase your bankroll.

-Sonny-
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
Advantage vs advantage play

Betting more whenever you have an advantage will make you money over time but it just might not be what I call advantage play.
Advantage play has long and short term controls, not only concerned with getting more money on the table when you have an advantage but taking into consideration other very important things such as ROR and variance.

In a martingale, you might find yourself in a situation where you have a 2% advantage but the progression has you betting you entire remaining bankroll on this minisule edge. Win it and you are in great shape, lose it and you can never play blackjack again for years or perhaps forever. This, in my opinion, is not advantage play, it is pure gambling even though you have a small edge.

My guess would be you would then, after winning a huge bet, go to the proper bet for the current count. I say this because of the following history.
I know a person who is a decent counter, capable of making money at blackjack but with a huge VP problem that sucks any blackjack profits right out of his pocket.
Perhaps because of big loses at VP, this guy would bet properly on the BJ table till certain things went wrong. A high count and he loses a couple of big bets and then he would start doubling his bet as long as the count still favored him, even if it had gone down some. I watched him do this a few times and sometimes he would recover and be in good shape but two other times he landed up perhaps losing 6 or 7 straight, a couple of max bets followed by hands losing that 2-4 times larger than what his max bet should have been. A huge loss and not equivilant to what he would have won because when winning his max bets he never would go 2-4 times larger.
He is amongst those large numbers of counters that I consider losing counters. Steaming along with his progression, even though he has an edge, has made him a loser.

ihate17
 
Top