Match Play Coupons in Los Angeles

non-self-weighter

non-self-weighter

Well-Known Member
I play a lot of poker in Los Angeles. At one casino, I've accumulated over $300 in match play coupons. They send me 1 or 2 $10 coupons each month. They're only usable on the horrible "Cal Games", all of which will slaughter the player (except maybe a high stakes pai gow player). I'm wondering which game I should use them on. A few details:

  • Coupon matches the player's bet, up to $10. That is, I must bet $10 of my money, and with this coupon, my bet will count at $20.
  • All "Cal Games" have a $1 fee on any bet up to $100. A bet of $101 ~ $200 have a fee of $2, and so on. Therefore, I actually must bet at least $10+1 so the coupon would match me for an additional $10.
  • The coupon remains in play if there is a push. Coupon is lost if I lose, and if I win, the $10 coupon and profit will be distributed in chips.
  • "Cal Games" include:
    3 Card Poker
    Eazy Poker
    California Baccarat
    Caribbean Stud
    Pai Gow Poker
    Pai Gow Tiles
    Blackjack, csm and some other horrendous rules​
Any idea on the best strategy? I haven't taken the time to study these games, and adding a coupon in the mix is even more complicated.

Thanks.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
With BJ, you are winning $19 or losing $11 per decision. If you play ten decisions and win only four, you've won $76 and lost $66.
Win twelve out of thirty and you have a $30 profit. The rules would have to be really bad to overcome this.
 
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DownUnderWonder

Active Member
I am not familiar with all of those games, but I do know that high variance bets are usually best for these coupons. Can you bet them all at once to reduce the effect of the +$1 fee? Can you bet it on pairs plus on TCP? My instincts would tell me that of BJ, CS and TCP, that would be the best bet. The other games I am not familiar with.

Argh, lost my post, ill try again :(

Ok, with a TCP pairs plus payout table of 35/33/6/4/1/-1 the actual payouts on your doubled bet would be 70/66/12/8/2/-1.

On a $100 (50 cash+50 MP) bet this would yield an expected profit of $69.53 - $1 = $68.53 for your $50 MP bet. This is 137.05% rate of return, or a $411 expected return on $300 in MP chips.

Let us be generous to the casino and pretend their blackjack game is fair, and its a 50/50 game. This would yield a 98% return on a $100 (50+50) bet, taking the $1 fee into account, or $294 expected from $300 MP.

Playing blackjack or playing one MP at a time is going to lower your variance, but you are sacrificing EV in doing so. In the long run you are better playing $100 a time to reduce the effect of the $1.

If you cant play them 5 at a time, the higher variance bet still wins, but the expected win goes down a little ($30 - $3) = $27 for a $300 worth of MP.

I am really nowhere near any kind of expert on this, so if someone who actually knows what they are talking about can take a look at these numbers for the OP and myself I would appreciate it. Even if my calculations are off I am pretty sure that my conclusion is sound.

Also, I dont know most of the games on your list, are there more high variance bets available to you?
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
non-self-weighter said:
Can I do better by choosing a different Cal Game?

Where can I do best?
Click to expand...
Does it really matter? If you play the best game in the house you'll have a ~45% EV, if you play the worst game in the house you'll have a ~40% EV. Just play the game with the shortest waiting list and then get back to playing poker IMO.
 
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sabre

Well-Known Member
It does matter pretty significantly. I'd play a match play on a single roulette number before I played it on a SD blackjack game.

Unfortunately, nearly all match plays are good only on "even money wagers"
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
non-self-weighter said:
I play a lot of poker in Los Angeles. At one casino, I've accumulated over $300 in match play coupons. They send me 1 or 2 $10 coupons each month. They're only usable on the horrible "Cal Games", all of which will slaughter the player (except maybe a high stakes pai gow player). I'm wondering which game I should use them on. A few details:

  • Coupon matches the player's bet, up to $10. That is, I must bet $10 of my money, and with this coupon, my bet will count at $20.
  • All "Cal Games" have a $1 fee on any bet up to $100. A bet of $101 ~ $200 have a fee of $2, and so on. Therefore, I actually must bet at least $10+1 so the coupon would match me for an additional $10.
  • The coupon remains in play if there is a push. Coupon is lost if I lose, and if I win, the $10 coupon and profit will be distributed in chips.
  • "Cal Games" include:
    3 Card Poker
    Eazy Poker
    California Baccarat
    Caribbean Stud
    Pai Gow Poker
    Pai Gow Tiles
    Blackjack, csm and some other horrendous rules​
Any idea on the best strategy? I haven't taken the time to study these games, and adding a coupon in the mix is even more complicated.

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Do you have to pay the fee again in case of a push? If so you'd want to avoid the Pai Gow. Probably the baccarat will do.
 
Pro21

Pro21

Well-Known Member
DownUnderWonder is right, you want variance. If the 3 card poker has a pair plus bet that is where you want to use it. See JGs coupon article for exhaustive coverage of coupon play.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Pro21 said:
DownUnderWonder is right, you want variance. If the 3 card poker has a pair plus bet that is where you want to use it. See JGs coupon article for exhaustive coverage of coupon play.
Click to expand...

If you can bet only the Pair Plus, but if you have to bet the Ante bet and lose $1 per bet on that as well, I'd stick to BJ. I didn't look at baccart or Pai Gow because I don't play them and I don't believe in playing a game just because you have a match play. Don't let the casino distract you from playing your game.
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
sabre said:
It does matter pretty significantly. I'd play a match play on a single roulette number before I played it on a SD blackjack game.

Unfortunately, nearly all match plays are good only on "even money wagers"
Click to expand...
Let me clarify: does it matter in light of your last sentence?

The EV difference between a BJ MP and craps MP if even money wagers only has got to be negligible. Assuming the OP is an EV+ poker player, you're probably losing more by missing a hand of poker than you'll gain from the coupon by asking precisely whether a BJ will still pay 3:2 with the coupon (some places might pay only 1:1 because of the even money rule) and/or waiting in line for the absolute best game.
 
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DownUnderWonder

Active Member
At my local you can play pairs plus without an ante bet. Also, you cant push the bet, so there should be no double up of the $1.

If you can play this bet, which it seems you can as indicated from your post, I would go for it, stay away from blackjack as its low variance costs you a lot of EV for these coupons.

I would also recommend reading the article linked above if you want a more in depth look. Playing games with a higher edge can seem counter-intuitive until its understood.

Good luck with your bets!
 
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rukus

Well-Known Member
DownUnderWonder said:
If you can play this bet, which it seems you can as indicated from your post, I would go for it, stay away from blackjack as its low variance costs you a lot of EV for these coupons.
Click to expand...
:)
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
Unshake said:
The article mentioned by Pro21 can be found here: http://www.beyondcounting.com/articles.html (Archive copy)

"Beyond Coupons"

There's really so many coupon variations and restrictions there could be a different 'best bet' at every casino.
Click to expand...
Yes, absolutely. It all depends on the coupon- even-money only, lose/keep on a push, etc. There's a 10% loss of ante on a push apparently so you want to avoid games with pushes even though you keep the coupon on a push.

Normally when I get a match play I play my normal counting game at a BJ table and use the match play to bring my bet to an appropriate level when the count calls for it. It's not worth it for a counter to leave the BJ table to mess around with a little coupon, if it's a typical coupon.
 
U

Unshake

Well-Known Member
Automatic Monkey said:
Normally when I get a match play I play my normal counting game at a BJ table and use the match play to bring my bet to an appropriate level when the count calls for it. It's not worth it for a counter to leave the BJ table to mess around with a little coupon, if it's a typical coupon.
Click to expand...
I agree to an extent. The difference between playing a $10 match play optimally and playing it OK is about $2.00 or so (or less). But if you get larger value ones or many of them, it might be worth spending a a little bit scoping out games, plus its a nice break.

Edit: Plus when you're checking out games you don't normally play like 3CP or CP you may run into other +Ev situations :).
 
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DownUnderWonder

Active Member
Automatic Monkey said:
It's not worth it for a counter to leave the BJ table to mess around with a little coupon, if it's a typical coupon.
Click to expand...
Totally agreed, which is probably why the OP has so many now. With $300 worth he can spend 3 mins at a TCP table for a huge amount of EV, totally worth it!
 
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Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
If you can afford it bet a $100 on BJ because you have to pay a $1 commision I would bet that the $1 commision is where the house gets most to all of it edge in the game. Put out $100 worth of your matchplays. You are probably playing no bust blackjack so if you get a 22-25 you still have a chance to push if the dealer busts higher than you. If you get a 22 and the dealer gets a 23 or higher it is push if the dealer gets a 22 or lower it is a loss. You should probably hit more often than in traditional blackjack because of this.
 
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