Most Profitable time to bet.

[Molson]

I have though of a system but i think i need to know when it is most Profitable and will it work. Ok here goes i count all the cards which are delt remember how many 10s,A's are delt.
So let me show you how this works in a 1 deck shoe.
20 cards are delt
5 of which are 10's to aces.
Therfore in the remainder of the shoe the must be 15 cards left between A - 10.
so about 75%(not exact) will be high cards. Is this percentage enough for the shoe to be in my favour.
Please correct me if this will never work or i need to include more information in my count.

Molson

 

[Sonny]

This could work, but it is not very optimal. You would need to know the ratio when the deck becomes favorable, and you would probably want to memorize what you advantage is at different ratios in order to bet properly. You would probably also want to know how to use the count to play your hands, like when to take insurance and when to deviate from basic strategy in order to win more money.

If you’re going to count cards, why not use one of the many systems available? They have already been completely developed with betting patterns, playing strategies and all the math has already been done for you. A simple system like KO or HiLo will be much stronger than just counting the tens and aces and just as easy. Blackjack is hard enough to beat without limiting yourself by using a weak counting system.

-Sonny-

 

[ChefJJ]

This could work, but it is not very optimal. You would need to know the ratio when the deck becomes favorable, and you would probably want to memorize what you advantage is at different ratios in order to bet properly. You would probably also want to know how to use the count to play your hands, like when to take insurance and when to deviate from basic strategy in order to win more money.

If you’re going to count cards, why not use one of the many systems available? They have already been completely developed with betting patterns, playing strategies and all the math has already been done for you. A simple system like KO or HiLo will be much stronger than just counting the tens and aces and just as easy. Blackjack is hard enough to beat without limiting yourself by using a weak counting system.

-Sonny-

My thoughts exactly...I'd even go as far to say that systems like KO or Hi-Lo would be just as easy to do at the table than what Molson has proposed. The thought of keeping track of just the 10 values & Aces is easy, but converting that into usable information to determine index plays & betting raises is where it probably won't produce.

good luck

 

[Renzey]

Ace/10 Front Count

Molson -- A counting system right along the lines of what you're suggesting has already been pretty thoroughly developed. It's called the "Ace/10 Front Count" (from Blackjack Bluebook II). It's an extremely simple, but also extremely marginal winning system, intended for recreational players who want to just tip-toe gently over the line from basic strategy into the realm of advantage play.

It was designed specifically for the six deck game and requires considerable wonging in and wonging out. Its easiest and most recreational feature is that you only have to add up the 10s and Aces that came out in the first two decks of the shoe. At that point, you stop counting altogether and just bet and play the remainder of the shoe according to your front two deck total -- either stay and keep betting one unit, increase your bets 'till the shuffle, or wong out.

 

[shadroch]

In a new deck,the ratio of tens and aces to others is 20/52,or 5/13.So pretty much anytime there ratio exceeds that,you have an advantage.
But there are better easier systems to use.

 

[ihate17]

What you know and what you do not know

Since this is single deck and you know that with 3/5 of the cards yet to be dealt you have 3/4 of the aces and faces left you should have an advantage. But your system does not tell you how much of an advantage.

For instance: Using Hi-lo
If the 20 cards dealt consisted of 5 high cards 9 medium and 6 low cards, your running count would be +1 and TC nearly +2. Small advantage but also a large amount of 7,8,9 have been removed and these are important cards that quite often pop up when you get dealt an A or 10 and in most cases are perfered over a 2-6.

If the 20 cards dealt consisted of those same 5 high cards, 5 medium cards and 10 low cards, your running count is now +5 with a TC of +8!
Same amount of big cards out but a huge difference in the advantage you have over the house.

Play around with the numbers and you will see that what your system lets you know is just not enough. No system lets you know everything about the makeup of the remaining cards but with the same amount of work, using something like KO or hi-lo, you will know tons more. Remember, proper bet to count is a huge part of winning in this game.

ihate17

 

[Molson]

Thanks for the replys.
I think it will be more worth while me practicing a available count.


Molson