My Bet Ramp

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SammyBoy

Well-Known Member
I'm looking for some comments about this change to my betting spread. Please let me know what you think.

Here is my old ramp:
0 or Less = $10
+1 = $20
+2 = $30
+3 = $40
+4 or more = $50

Here is my new ramp:
-1 or less = $10
0 = $15
+1 = $20
+2 = $30
+3 = $40
+4 or +5 = $50
+6 or more $60 (If no heat)

I'm mainly interested in your thoughts about the $15 at 0 instead of $10. Also, because when doing the true count conversion you don't always get an exact count, I will often bet $25 if the true count is less than 3 but more than 2. I do the same type thing at +1.5, +3.5 and +4.5. Thanks in advance.
 
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Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
Depends on rules and number of decks, count system, etc. before one could make a value judgement. Off hand, I would say either spread is pretty weak. You probably don't have an advantage at 0, so why bet more?
 
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Cyrano

Well-Known Member
It seems the $60 at +6 is just a bonus and his max bet is actually the $50 at +5. Why not add more at a higher count? Does the Hi/Lo system become less accurate at higher counts?
 
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hammer

Well-Known Member
no one has a game like that

unless its a hokey version of bjack.

If so where,and I will eat my words.
 
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The Mayor

Well-Known Member
The point of putting your max bet at +5 is that as the count gets > +5, your certainty of winning the max bet increases, thereby decreasing variance. If you continue to raise your bets, forever, with the count, you are betting true kelly, which has a much larger variance. Of course it can be done, but traditionally, if you have a max bet, then win rate is maximized with this bet at +5 on non-surrender games, and +4 in surrender games.
 
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Cyrano

Well-Known Member
That's interesting, Mayor. Do you know how much the variance increases with each bet level increase?
 
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SammyBoy

Well-Known Member
Yes They Do!

And it's not a hokey version of BJ. It's the real thing. Get the latest version of CBJN and you'll know where it is.
 
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The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Re: no one has a game like that

There are even better SD games around -- as far as rules -- for example at the Barcelona in North Vegas, and at Barona Casino in San Diego.
 
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hammer

Well-Known Member
Re: no one has a game like that

He mentioned s17, the others do no have s17. gotta love it. where??
Bar-now cranked to 100 min-pure greed of course surrender is grand.
brl-decent nice 2 to 1 payouts, when they are open.
 
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easyrider

Member
How about this?

Wouldn't a single deck game favor a more conservative bet spread?

Higher true counts are acheived much more frequently in an SD game, so a counter could really take a bite out of variance by incrementing a 1-5 spread every +2 or even +3 TC and still push out big bets due to frequently high TCs. Playing strategy is more important than bet spread in a single deck game anyway (assuming your not commando spreading or trying to hit and run), so a sophisticated play strategy, an ace side count, and a conservative spread may be the way to go in SD.

Of course, it would depend on your goals. For low rollers, I think slashing variance at the cost of minimum EV gains is a sound play, but maybe for those who've built a sufficient bankroll, aggressive spreading is tolerable...
 
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Abraham de Moivre

Well-Known Member
Optimal Bet Ramp

For the rules you mention, given a 400 unit bet ramp, an optimal spread would look something like this:

<0 0
+0 1 (more like .8 to be precise)
+1 3
+2 5
+3 7
+4 8
+5 10
+6 12

Of course, as a pratical matter, I doubt you would be able to get down this 1:10 spread for very long.
And the continual jumping of bets (from 1 unit at 0, to 5 units at +2, down to 3 units at +1, etc.) would be a dead give-away.

Test what the max spread they will tolerate, and you will probably find you are hitting this max limit at +3, and might be able to add a chip or two if the count goes even higher. You might consider a parlay scheme of doubling your bet which will basically give you some appearance of playing a progression, and staying pretty close to the optimal bet amounts:

<0 1
+0 1
+1 2
+2 4
+3 8
+4 8
+5 8
+6 10

Remember, the more you vary from the optimal amounts in the frequently occuring -1 to +1 count range, the more your results will vary from the ideal.
 
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Coug Fan

Active Member
Did you really mean to say that?

You said, "Playing strategy is more important than bet spread in a single deck game anyway (assuming your not commando spreading or trying to hit and run), so a sophisticated play strategy, an ace side count, and a conservative spread may be the way to go in SD."

Playing strategy is much more important in SD than it is in Multiple Decks, but the EV gain from bet spreads dwarfs the EV gain from playing variations even in SD.
 
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easyrider

Member
Sure I did...

that's why I wrote it.

Again, I was commenting on an SD spread that wasn't Rambo-esque. Somewhere in Fred Roger's Friendly Neighborhood of 1-5. Most SD casino's will tolerate this and given this spread, strategy gains are more important...of course. If you want to spread more, more power (and money) to ya, just bring a fat roll to ride the roller coaster....yeehaw!
 
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SammyBoy

Well-Known Member
Question for the Mayor

According to what I've read in Professional BJ, the advantage a BS player has in the game I play is .01% (single deck) + .14% because of the rules. This comes out to a +.15% advantage (I've also seen it listed as +.13 for this game) on the first round of cards dealt. Would it not then make sense to bet slightly more in this scenario when the count is 0 ($15 in my case) and less in negative counts ($10)? Thanks.
 
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Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Re: Question

If your numbers are right it will make little difference, but you are correct. With a +.15 advantage a $15 bet would reflect .15% of a 10K bankroll. Your spread from $10-? would take place from -1 instead of from 0 and up.
 
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