My Blackjack Experiment

[adventureboy]

I am about 4 years away from retirement from my present career, but I will still be fairly young when that day comes. I have been playing blackjack for years. I had 4 months off from my job, so I decided to see if I blackjack could be come a viable "2nd" career for me after I retire. 1st, I will list the parameters I was playing under:

1) Bankroll--- $20,000 USD
2) Method--- Hi-lo. Bet minimum ($25) until true count of +3 and ramped up from there.
3) Spread-- 25 to 300 (only max bet @ true count of +12 or more)
4) Time frame-- averaged 20 hrs per week for 10 weeks
5) Location--- all over Mississippi, and some in Louisiana
6) Games-- Double Deck when available, otherwise 6 deck shoe. No single deck available except 6:5 (except for 1 casino in Shreveport).

My results: I had a lot of fun, but did not make much money. I do not represent my play as perfect...I am not a robot... but it was close to it. I have no trouble keeping count and matching my bets. There were some big swings in my bankroll. After the first 3 weeks I was down a little over 5k and considered quiting, but I stuck with it and 2 weeks later I was up over 8k. The swings continued, up and down, and when all was done I was up just over $1,800. I did get a lot of comps, and that added to the fun of it all. I also had some expenses (mainly gas) that ate into my final profit number. Maybe 10 weeks is not long enough to have my "advantage" born out. However, for me, I do not see blackjack as a viable 2nd career path. The games out there that are available to me are hard to win... except for the double decks that put the cut card low. Those were few, however, as most of the double decks put the cut card in the middle or worse! Also, I can report that I received no heat whatsoever, but I did spread my play around at a lot of different casinos.
Conclusion: Blackjack is not an easy way to make money. To become profitable with the games available, I feel I would have to adopt a much more powerful and complex counting strategy. It took me a long time to become totally compfortable with hi-lo, so I am not sure I am willing to go though the mental anguish necessary to give a "potential" higher edge--still with no guarantee of ever making any money.

PS-- If I am missing something obvious or you see something that I did wrong, I welcome your comments. I also have a lot of knowledge of casinos in this area so if you need any info just let me know. Thanks.

 

[SleightOfHand]

I am about 4 years away from retirement from my present career, but I will still be fairly young when that day comes. I have been playing blackjack for years. I had 4 months off from my job, so I decided to see if I blackjack could be come a viable "2nd" career for me after I retire. 1st, I will list the parameters I was playing under:

1) Bankroll--- $20,000 USD
2) Method--- Hi-lo. Bet minimum ($25) until true count of +3 and ramped up from there.
3) Spread-- 25 to 300 (only max bet @ true count of +12 or more)
4) Time frame-- averaged 20 hrs per week for 10 weeks
5) Location--- all over Mississippi, and some in Louisiana
6) Games-- Double Deck when available, otherwise 6 deck shoe. No single deck available except 6:5 (except for 1 casino in Shreveport).

My results: I had a lot of fun, but did not make much money. I do not represent my play as perfect...I am not a robot... but it was close to it. I have no trouble keeping count and matching my bets. There were some big swings in my bankroll. After the first 3 weeks I was down a little over 5k and considered quiting, but I stuck with it and 2 weeks later I was up over 8k. The swings continued, up and down, and when all was done I was up just over $1,800. I did get a lot of comps, and that added to the fun of it all. I also had some expenses (mainly gas) that ate into my final profit number. Maybe 10 weeks is not long enough to have my "advantage" born out. However, for me, I do not see blackjack as a viable 2nd career path. The games out there that are available to me are hard to win... except for the double decks that put the cut card low. Those were few, however, as most of the double decks put the cut card in the middle or worse! Also, I can report that I received no heat whatsoever, but I did spread my play around at a lot of different casinos.
Conclusion: Blackjack is not an easy way to make money. To become profitable with the games available, I feel I would have to adopt a much more powerful and complex counting strategy. It took me a long time to become totally compfortable with hi-lo, so I am not sure I am willing to go though the mental anguish necessary to give a "potential" higher edge--still with no guarantee of ever making any money.

PS-- If I am missing something obvious or you see something that I did wrong, I welcome your comments. I also have a lot of knowledge of casinos in this area so if you need any info just let me know. Thanks.

Starting your bets at a TC of +3 seems a little late. You probably have a extremely slight advantage at +1 and would have suggested betting at +2. Also, a max bet at +12 is WAY too late. I prob would have suggested a max bet at +6 or +7. Thats probably why you didn't make as much as you could have.

Also, a max bet of 300 may have been too much for your given bankroll. 200 may have been better, although I dont know all the relevent info. A major factor in your WR/SCORE is penetration. And seeing a pen of 1 deck or worse is imo not even worth considering unless there are other reasons to play. Perhaps if you were more available to better games, it would be viable as a second career. But knowing what I read, I doubt it.

PS: The complexity of the strategy is not a big factor. HiLo is a perfectly fine count and will bring the money. Going from a level 1 to level 2 count will probably give a 10% bonus to your game, which is not too much (Although it will probably be higher if you are playing primarily DD games).

 

[QFIT]

Did you actually see a true count of +12?

Max bet should come at +4 or +5. I doubt that you were playing with an advantage raising your bet at +3.

 

[Pro21]

If in your retirement you do not need to earn from your BJ play then I suggest you get a copy of Comp City and become a comp counter.

 

[Kasi]

If I am missing something obvious or you see something that I did wrong, I welcome your comments.

Well, forgive me, it's more like what did you do right lol.

You act as if you don't even know what to expect from your play.

Where did you get this spread - +12 will never happen anyway lol.

You seem to say you would use same spread in both 6D and DD games?

You went from 5K down to 8K plus in two weeks - picking up 520 units in 20 hours of play sticking to your bet ramp? Didn't happen.

You may not be a robot lol, nobody is, but you better bet like one as best you can lol. I'd bet your betting was a lot less like a robot than your counting of BS plays.

I'd buy some software with that $20K to program in the games you are talking about, etc. Then play for free on the software so it can tell you any mistakes you may make and help you understand the best way to bet. And your risk etc. It does make a difference you know what the pen is, etc.

Where did you get this spread from anyway - just make it up or something? Were you playing all hands? If so, I doubt if the 6D game could possibly be more than just barely+EV and have enormous risk to your roll. Etc.

The good news is you have 4 years to practice this stuff for free lol.

And don't include expenses in your BJ roll or winnings - it's tough enough without worrying about that. Just eat the gas expense as a normal household expense so you can more easily measure the results of your BJ play.

So endeth my "tough love" sermon lol.

 

[adventureboy]

I will try to clarify a few points:

1) My bet ramp was really 25-200, with 200 comming out at +8. My max bet of 300 was really slightly overbetting my bankroll, but I did go up that high if the count got to + 12 or more... which did happen 4 or 5 times in 10 weeks of play.

2) Yes, I was down just over 5k in about 3 weeks. I will not regale you with the stories of my bad beats.... suffice it to say I had a string of multilple split and double losses with a bet of 200 or more on the table.

3) Yes, I was up almost 8k after 5 weeks...but I must confess some of that positve swing had to do with an "opportunity" that presented itself at one particular table. I will not name the casino or even the city---but I was catching the dealer's hole card every 2nd or 3rd hand.

4) Most responses seem to say that I was betting to conservativley. I will confess that I think a +3 true count near the top of a 6 deck shoe is not the same as a +3 true count half-way through a single deck...so I do adjust my bet ramp aggression depending upon count AND number of cards left in the deck. I do not want to get into a long winded discussion about variance. I've run the numbers and in my view it is a hell of alot safer to be more conservative when there are still 150+ cards to deal with.

For me, to really seriously consider this something worth doing, I would have to at least have an expection of making $100 per hour--- Otherwise, it is just not worth the risk. I can teach part time and make $50 per hour with no risk (although really boring!) If anyone wants to recommend a specific bet ramp that you think will impove my game, I would appreciate it. I will not have a chance to play full time again until next summer, but I will be playing once a week in the evening (maybe 3 hrs). Thanks!

 

[SystemsTrader]

I will try to clarify a few points:

My max bet of 300 was really slightly overbetting my bankroll, but I did go up that high if the count got to + 12 or more... which did happen 4 or 5 times in 10 weeks of play.

In all honesty how good is your deck estimation? Counts of +12 are extremely rare, to get that to happen 4 or 5 times in 10 weeks is highly unlikely.

 

[Kasi]

I will try to clarify a few points:

1) My bet ramp was really 25-200, with 200 comming out at +8. My max bet of 300 was really slightly overbetting my bankroll, but I did go up that high if the count got to + 12 or more... which did happen 4 or 5 times in 10 weeks of play.

2) Yes, I was down just over 5k in about 3 weeks. I will not regale you with the stories of my bad beats.... suffice it to say I had a string of multilple split and double losses with a bet of 200 or more on the table.

3) Yes, I was up almost 8k after 5 weeks...but I must confess some of that positve swing had to do with an "opportunity" that presented itself at one particular table. I will not name the casino or even the city---but I was catching the dealer's hole card every 2nd or 3rd hand.

4) Most responses seem to say that I was betting to conservativley. I will confess that I think a +3 true count near the top of a 6 deck shoe is not the same as a +3 true count half-way through a single deck...so I do adjust my bet ramp aggression depending upon count AND number of cards left in the deck. I do not want to get into a long winded discussion about variance. I've run the numbers and in my view it is a hell of alot safer to be more conservative when there are still 150+ cards to deal with.

For me, to really seriously consider this something worth doing, I would have to at least have an expection of making $100 per hour--- Otherwise, it is just not worth the risk. I can teach part time and make $50 per hour with no risk (although really boring!) If anyone wants to recommend a specific bet ramp that you think will impove my game, I would appreciate it. I will not have a chance to play full time again until next summer, but I will be playing once a week in the evening (maybe 3 hrs). Thanks!

No your bet ramp really wasn't 25-200. It really was 25-300 with a max bet seldom being reached, wasn't it?

Of course that swing from -$5K to +8K was due to something other than being a card-counter. It couldn't be otherwise.

Nobody is saying you are betting too conservatively. They are saying you are not betting optimally. Myabe so "conserrvatively", it's actually "radical", perhaps only reducing EV and increasing risk to your roll. I'll just call it "stupidly" and leave it at that.

But I'll spare you a long-winded discussion about variance since you have run the numbers.

Since I can only surmise, since you need an EV of $100/hr to even bother playing, those same numbers must have told you that is what your EV is? Otherwise, why are you still even considering to continue to play 3 hours a week?

What did those numbers tell you about an EV of $20K, after the 200 hours you have already played and, say, maybe after adjusted for seeing the dealer's hole card?

Just for the fun of it, why don't you specify the rules and pen of the 6D game you play most often. And the exact TC's you bet your 25-300. Can I assume you play all hands? Maybe just ignore, for the moment, just to keep it simple, of how your ramp changes at the same TC based on remaining cards of deck.

At least that might put you in the ball park as to what to have expected so far or, going forward, for that one particular game anyway.

Without you getting more realistic and more specific about your play, take some dramamine, hold on tight, I fear you may be in for quite an adventure, adventureboy lol.

 

[matt21]

hi adventure boy,
well done on completing your experiment. i think it's great that you set aside ten weeks and tested this - so you basically do something 110% or not at all right? it's good to hear also that you were actually slight up after your 200 hours and in addition you received a lot of comps. So in a way your experiment/investigation into this business opportunity, was free - save for all the time that you put into it - but that would be required with any venture. so good work!

given that you have already demonstrated your persistence/discipline, you should have another go at this next year but take into account the comments made on this thread.

the understanding of expected rate of return is very important in blackjack (as Kasi pointed out). and you need to know how a change in bet ramp impacts on this. a software, avail for approx $200 (I recommend QFIT's CVD), will enable you to do this.

if you want me to work out your expected return and standard deviation for your completed way then please PM and i'd be happy to help. i regularly spend time working on these aspects of the game. from the figures that you mentioned thus far, i think your expected rate of return is going to be very small (if you play-all with $25min).

you would need to make changes to your ramp to make a projected rate of $100/hr as well as use a bigger bankroll - you didnt mention whether $20k was your experiment roll and as to whether you have access to bigger funds.

Good luck and please do get in touch if you want to work out those projected rates.

Matt

 

[tripsix]

A friendly reply.

Thanks for your service Adventureboy.
You are getting good advice. Hopefully my comments will add something. Let's start here.

1) Bankroll--- $20,000 USD
2) Method--- Hi-lo. Bet minimum ($25) until true count of +3 and ramped up from there.
3) Spread-- 25 to 300 (only max bet @ true count of +12 or more)
4) Time frame-- averaged 20 hrs per week for 10 weeks
5) Location--- all over Mississippi, and some in Louisiana
6) Games-- Double Deck when available, otherwise 6 deck shoe. No single deck available except 6:5 (except for 1 casino in Shreveport).

1) Bankroll--- A good start, could even make $100+ an hour. Only if you restrict yourself to games with a SCORE of 50+. Meaning you would have to take longer trips farther, (go west Adventureboy!)

2)Method--- Hi-lo is good. Holecarding, as you noticed can be more profitable. Since you can spot this, be sure to review some holecarding charts,if you haven't already. You don't have to memorize it, but it may help when the opportunity arises.

3)Spread--- The reason you did not win more is due to the spread. Based on 4 billion round sims a good spread in units would be 1 from TC-1=>1; 2 at 2; 4 at TC3; 8 at TC4; 10 at TC5; 12 at TC6. Wong out below TC-1. Even better spreads may get out 12 units at TC4. The jump in spread will be even greater btwn TC 1 and 2, double TC2 to TC3 then smaller increase to max at TC 4. The above pertains to 6deck S17. DD would max out around 8 units.

Above TC4 the increase in advantage tends to dwindle as the chance of a good hand for both the dealer and you is higher. Also the frequency of these higher counts decreases. Which is why most ramps start at 2 and ramp high at 3.
Floating advantage is good to be aware of, this is where you point out.

A TC of +3 at the top of a 6deck is not the same as 1 of 2 decks.
Pardon the semi-quote it's from your second post.

The affect of the floating advantage is actually kind of small. At your betting level it can give you a chance to not look like a robot. Use some red chips and bet one less or more than your optimal bet based on the float. Blackjack Attack 3 has a really good discussion on floating advantage.

You have experienced a significant number of +12 counts for the hours played. It is absolutely possible this did happen. Many of us, myself included, have found it is more difficult estimating the last .5-1 deck of a 6 deck shoe. To help with this possible error, note the height of the decks in discard rack when all 6D are in there, just before next shuffle, w/o being compressed by the dealer. Estimate from top of noted point in discard not bottom.

I strongly suggest some good software CV suite or SBA. There is another good one, don't remember the name at the moment.

4) Time frame-- Not bad. Let's assume between adding in gas expenses and comps you made $2,000 in 10 weeks. This means a 50.2% APR on your bankroll! That includes a BIG error in your bet spread. If that was corrected the APR may double or more!

5)Location-- From what I hear, travel is required for Professional BJ players.

6)Games-- GOOD JOB avoiding the 6:5. Be sure to use different spreads on DD and 6D shoes. Spreading to two hands on the shoes might be a good option. If you spread to 2 hands be sure to know exactly how this affects your win rate or variance.

Conclusion: Blackjack is not an easy way to make money. To become profitable with the games available, I feel I would have to adopt a much more powerful and complex counting strategy.

The first statement of you conclusion is correct. Stanford Wong said, "Card Counting is easy, making money counting cards is very hard."

I respectfully disagree that a higher level count would make a significant difference. If you feel you must, Zen would probably be the best choice for you. But Hi-lo has not been correctly analyzed by your experiment.

Understanding the results of the math may be your final hurdle. It doesn't matter if you understand the actual math and formulas, but know it's results and what they mean, could make you a much bigger winner than your experiment showed. Things like Win Rate, EV, ROR, Kelly Betting (.5-.33 may be good for you.) Knowing the math may make it possible for you to win the $100 an hour in the long run. Would need to know more about rules/pen to be sure.

I believe due to the bet spread, you may have reached an erroneous conclusion. Also your holecarding advantage play == SWEET. You may be underestimating yourself. Stay open to other types of advantage plays as well.

Hope this helps! :grin:

 

[creeping panther]

Boy

I am about 4 years away from retirement from my present career, but I will still be fairly young when that day comes. I have been playing blackjack for years. I had 4 months off from my job, so I decided to see if I blackjack could be come a viable "2nd" career for me after I retire. 1st, I will list the parameters I was playing under:

1) Bankroll--- $20,000 USD
2) Method--- Hi-lo. Bet minimum ($25) until true count of +3 and ramped up from there.
3) Spread-- 25 to 300 (only max bet @ true count of +12 or more)
4) Time frame-- averaged 20 hrs per week for 10 weeks
5) Location--- all over Mississippi, and some in Louisiana
6) Games-- Double Deck when available, otherwise 6 deck shoe. No single deck available except 6:5 (except for 1 casino in Shreveport).

My results: I had a lot of fun, but did not make much money. I do not represent my play as perfect...I am not a robot... but it was close to it. I have no trouble keeping count and matching my bets. There were some big swings in my bankroll. After the first 3 weeks I was down a little over 5k and considered quiting, but I stuck with it and 2 weeks later I was up over 8k. The swings continued, up and down, and when all was done I was up just over $1,800. I did get a lot of comps, and that added to the fun of it all. I also had some expenses (mainly gas) that ate into my final profit number. Maybe 10 weeks is not long enough to have my "advantage" born out. However, for me, I do not see blackjack as a viable 2nd career path. The games out there that are available to me are hard to win... except for the double decks that put the cut card low. Those were few, however, as most of the double decks put the cut card in the middle or worse! Also, I can report that I received no heat whatsoever, but I did spread my play around at a lot of different casinos.
Conclusion: Blackjack is not an easy way to make money. To become profitable with the games available, I feel I would have to adopt a much more powerful and complex counting strategy. It took me a long time to become totally compfortable with hi-lo, so I am not sure I am willing to go though the mental anguish necessary to give a "potential" higher edge--still with no guarantee of ever making any money.

PS-- If I am missing something obvious or you see something that I did wrong, I welcome your comments. I also have a lot of knowledge of casinos in this area so if you need any info just let me know. Thanks.

You must be a teacher....so is my wife and we are slamming the casinos during the summer big time.

I really like what tripsix had to say, very wise posting on his part.

I agree that BJ can be an up and down ride, and if I were you I would do the $50 an hour teaching job for sure. I and the wife play for more reasons than just to make extra money, for us it is a vacation, free food and rooms and the thrill of beating the casino. Maybe you should look at it that way.

As to your play, you have read some books, checked the sims, etc, now you have to really learn how to play.............dig?

And by the way, I see +12 counts fairly often, you get that with very fine games.

CP

 

[sagefr0g]

i had the same idea regarding blackjack as a supplemental thing for retirement.
well, in my case it didn't work out as planned, lol.

but yeah, it's not as easy to make a living wage playing blackjack as one might think. heck lol, when your young and easily confused like me, just tying your shoes in the morning isn't all that easy.:laugh:

no big deal though, i'm still playing, having a blast and making a little bit of loot.
heck, i make a small bit of money, have fun and don't spend much as far as recreation. if i was sky diving, mountain climbing, deep sea diving or golfing more i'd probably spend a heap more than this blackjack stuff, lmao.

thing is if you learn some of this stuff about advantage play and all, just me maybe but i think it gives you another perspective on life in general, so things like investing, buying selling, what ever, lol, you have an edge maybe.

just one retired guy to another potential one, lol. you can still go skydiving or what ever your want and play blackjack as well.

but tripsix, kasi, CP and all are telling the specifics like it is pretty much, very good advice.

 

[sabre]

Conclusion: Blackjack is not an easy way to make money. To become profitable with the games available, I feel I would have to adopt a much more powerful and complex counting strategy.

No, you don't need a more complex counting strategy. You needed a better betting strategy. Your was simply terrible ... I don't know why most of the posters responding to this thread aren't harping on that.

6D LS S17 1.5 pen

No wonging

Ramp 1: 1 TC <1 | 2 TC +1 | 4 TC +2 | 8 TC +3 | 12 TC +4
Ramp 2: 1 TC <3 | 2 TC +3 | 4 TC +4,+5 | 6 TC +6,+7 | 8 TC +8 | 10 TC +9-+11 | 12 TC +12

Ramp 1 SCORE = 25
Ramp 2 SCORE = 5

 

[Kasi]

No, you don't need a more complex counting strategy. You needed a better betting strategy. Your was simply terrible ... I don't know why most of the posters responding to this thread aren't harping on that.

6D LS S17 1.5 pen

No wonging

Ramp 1: 1 TC <1 | 2 TC +1 | 4 TC +2 | 8 TC +3 | 12 TC +4
Ramp 2: 1 TC <3 | 2 TC +3 | 4 TC +4,+5 | 6 TC +6,+7 | 8 TC +8 | 10 TC +9-+11 | 12 TC +12

Ramp 1 SCORE = 25
Ramp 2 SCORE = 5

Well, it seems like almost everyone touched upon his bet ramp to me lol.

Very nice posts by all imho.

To AB, - just wanted to say I hope nobody here, especially me, has "put you off" from posting more here. And that, changing how much to bet when is the simplest thing of all to do.

While sabre picked a specific game out of the "air", it does show how ramp can effect things.

It may not be obvious to you, but, if that actually is the game you play, with sabre's specified ramp, your EV might not even be $10/hr. And with fairly high risk. Just another opinion lol - I don't know what risk you are willing to take to win how much - like you could spread 250-3000 with your ramp and get your $100 EV/hr but with a 40 unit roll, your risk would be crazy-high lol.

Even with sabre's suggested bet ramp, your EV might only be $50/hr. And still with a risk to roll maybe many would not choose to accept lol.

Sabre did what I was hoping you might do - like maybe start with whatever game you anticipate playing for 3 hours this week. Specific rules of game, specific pen, (pick one for starters), chosen bet ramp at each TC etc and then people here can tell you more of what to expect in terms of EV, variance and risk etc.

Ideally, maybe before you actually risk real money lol.

Whatever, best of luck to you. You got 4 years - take a few months to know exactly how,what and why you are doing whatever you choose to do.

 

[adventureboy]

Thanks to everyone to all the replies. I think it is safe to say the general consesus is that my bet ramp sucks! I will adjust accordingly. It is difficult to run a valid simulation, because I find conditions vary sooo much, even within the same casino! For example, one dealer may give 75% penetration of a DD game, and the relief dealer comming in give 50% or less. I know I should get up and leave the bad penetration game...but I find that about the only way I can get 70% + penetration is to play for a while, get friendly with the dealer, and ask for a deeper cut. Maybe I should be playing less hours with a higher bankroll and betting bigger when conditions are favorable. Perhaps it is just my perception, but it seems a lot more scrutiny happens when bets get 500+. I will give serious consideration to all the comments that have been posted here.

No, I will not "need" an income when I retire, if all I consume are the "basics". But if I am going to take that 3 month tour of Europe, sail the Caribbean on my boat, and finally drive that BMW 7 series...then I will need some extra income. Not that I mind teaching, but after 25 years it would sure be fun to try my hand at something else.

I am going to do some research and try to refine my game. I will pick back up with my part time play next week, so I'll let you guys know how it goes. I appreciate all the feedback---even the tough love!