My cover play evaluated

[Ferretnparrot]

Ok so about doubling soft 18 vs 10 at high counts for less and the scarcity of cards that would lead you to play strategy to draw an aditional card

Hitting will result in an ev of -0.14units according to the wizard of oddz
Doubling for full would amount to a loss of -0.34 units so hypothetically doubling for nothing would represent a loss of -0.16units since if would be the same as doubling for full just with less the money BUUUUUT the difference between doubling and hitting is only when you would need to draw more cards and this is based on basic strategy only not at high counts, since the amount lost is 2% this is due to drawing cards that leave you with hands that basic strategy says to double on howver at a tc of +6 the cards that would leave you with hands that you woudl want to draw on additiaonal cards is reduced by to only 45% of what it was before so the new loss would be just over under 1% of the total amount bet plus ~15% of the amount you double for which is trivial because its gogin to be really small.
and by loss i mean loss in ev from the correct play.

1% doesnt sound liek a lot, are there cover plays with less? im sure there are

Ferret

 

[ihate17]

But the wiz # of -.14 is different than yours

The wizard is not thinking about someone doubling soft 18 vs 10, he is thinking about hitting and that is very different.
You are limited to one card by doubling!
You can not first hit a 6 and than a 7 for 21 or any other multicard hit that would make your hand, you disadvantage must grow.

Soft 18 plays are generally an indicator of BS knowledge more than counting knowledge and showing him that you do not know basic strategy might give you some cover but I think more cover comes from the plays that casino folks are taught to look for in a counter.

Positive count stay on 16, negative count hit vs 10.
Positve count stay on 12 vs 3, negative count hit

These are two very simple basic strategy indices that are constantly watched. You would lose less money by just playing one or both of these constantly (like always staying on 16 vs 10) compared to doubling for less on soft 18.

Finally, if you happen to get a pit with a bad disposition and your doubling for less is like doubling for $1 extra, you just might piss him off and then the situation becomes unpredicatable.

ihate17

 

[jack.jackson]

Ok so about doubling soft 18 vs 10 at high counts for less and the scarcity of cards that would lead you to play strategy to draw an aditional card

Hitting will result in an ev of -0.14units according to the wizard of oddz
Doubling for full would amount to a loss of -0.34 units so hypothetically doubling for nothing would represent a loss of -0.16units since if would be the same as doubling for full just with less the money BUUUUUT the difference between doubling and hitting is only when you would need to draw more cards and this is based on basic strategy only not at high counts, since the amount lost is 2% this is due to drawing cards that leave you with hands that basic strategy says to double on howver at a tc of +6 the cards that would leave you with hands that you woudl want to draw on additiaonal cards is reduced by to only 45% of what it was before so the new loss would be just over under 1% of the total amount bet plus ~15% of the amount you double for which is trivial because its gogin to be really small.
and by loss i mean loss in ev from the correct play.

1% doesnt sound liek a lot, are there cover plays with less? im sure there are

Ferret

Provided LS is not offered. I wonder how Doubling 15vsX @ 0 would pan out? For this hand appears quite often.

 

[Dopple]

Positive count stay on 16, negative count hit vs 10.
Positve count stay on 12 vs 3, negative count hit

My UAPC matrices say hit 12 vs 3 until a plus +2 count is achieved.

Are all matrices created equal.

As far as APs go I know I am a little challenged.

Thanks

 

[Ferretnparrot]

I explained before how this play is uniqui because do to the high count nature, and the change in basic strategy, the cards that would hurt you by leaving you with hands that strategy would want to draw additional cards on after you doubled is reduced to 45% of what it is at count zero

The cost of a cover play is the diffence between the correct play and the new play you are making, not the total ev of the new play.

Doubling hard 15 vs x has practically no loss of ev due to not being able to draw more cards, however the cost of the double is 50.4% its value. This hand apears....~2% of the time

so 0% total amoutn wagered + 50.4% the double amount it the ecpected loss

 

[ihate17]

different counts, different indices

Positive count stay on 16, negative count hit vs 10.
Positve count stay on 12 vs 3, negative count hit

My UAPC matrices say hit 12 vs 3 until a plus +2 count is achieved.

Are all matrices created equal.

As far as APs go I know I am a little challenged.

Thanks

When you use a count like UAPC the indices will often be different than a count like hi-low, as one count assigns numbers above 1 to certain cards and the other does not.

ihate17

 

[blackjack avenger]

Differences in Indices

Positive count stay on 16, negative count hit vs 10.
Positve count stay on 12 vs 3, negative count hit

My UAPC matrices say hit 12 vs 3 until a plus +2 count is achieved.

Are all matrices created equal.

As far as APs go I know I am a little challenged.

Thanks

All indices are not created equally.
There are several factors which can cause variations.

 

[moo321]

Didn't you say you have about $10k for a bank? I don't think you should be using any kind of playing or betting camo whatsoever. You need to be worried about getting the money, not longevity.