ted turner
Member
Thought all you blackjack-heads might be interested in my first vegas blackjack trip. Be it known that previously I have been something of a slot machine junkey, or 'grind' as they are called. I have finally learned my lessonn on slots, so here's the trip.
My buddy has been trying to get me to play blackjack and give up slots. He and his wife go to Vegas at least once per year. He's a crap-head, but that's another story (he always wins, but ends up losing. First day we were there he was up $5,000 but lost it all, AND MORE, by the time we left Vegas 9 days later).
I never played blackjack, but knowing I was going with them this year (end of January-early Feb 2004), for six weeks I studied basic strategy and played thousands and thousands of hands with myself while watching television.
We stayed downtown for 6 days, the stayed at Palace Station for 3 days. We drove from Wisconsin, and spent a couple nights at casinos on the way to/from Vegas. First day in Vegas: stupid me. Living near Indian casinos that don't have to report statistics to the gaming board, I was excited to play slot machines with a better chance of winning (average 94% return downtown). Didn't make a difference. First day I lost $700 in slots at multiple casinos downtown and didn't get anything worth mentioning. Even in an Indian casino I probably would have got at least a $300 jackpot with that amount 'invested'. Then I played blackjack all night and into the next morning, using basic strategy, and won $700 total. I was amazed.
I didn't think I could win at blackjack, as it seems you win a hand, lost a hand, etc, and it evens out. Not exactly, as I found out. I got decent cards, and that's what it's all about. Second day: Still stupid, I played about $400 into slots in various downtown casinos and got nothing. I played blackjack all night again, and won $650, so by now I was a bit ahead for the trip. Again, I had got good cards, with many 20's as my two hole cards.
The next couple days I still played some slots, but didn't put nearly as much into them, but still got nothing. Blackjack seemed to even out a bit, with some exceptions. I would win $100 at a table or two, and lose a hundred. I learned better money management for my next trip. If I start out with a hundred, I'll only lost $50 before I leave a table.
I learned that luck is a strange mistress and really exists. If a table is bad, it seems to stay bad, so why should I stay? That's why I like downtown Vegas: there's so many casinos and so many tables I can move around until (hopefully) I find a 'good' table. It happens.
Ok, here is where I bend over and all of you blackjack-heads can give me a good kick. Believe me, I've done it to myself every day since it happened. About the fourth day, I played single deck, just me and the dealer, and I had the most fantastic cards I'll probably ever have. Some decks (shuffles?) I wouldn't lose a single hand. Over the course of at least 6 decks, I only lost a few hands. My hole cards were almost always 17-21. That is, I wasn't always in the situation of drawing cards. The dealer was busting when she was supposed to, and when I doubled, I got a good card. At one point I was up $400 on the table, but the cards went cold for me, and by the time I realized this and quit the table, I was only up $260. Here's why I kick myself: my biggest bet was $20.
Even without card counting, and even without progression betting (which I don't do) even a dummy like me should have recognized that I was on a good streak and at least bet $50. I should have walked away from that table with $1500 or more. That game was the beginning of the end of my luck for the trip. I had one more decent session the next day, but lost, and here's how. I plunked down my hundred, and got up a hundred. By the time I realized the cards had gone bad, I lost the hundred I won and lost my original hundred.
It was then I hatched my money management scheme, but it was too late. Now, when I get ahead a hundred, I set aside my original hundred and half my winnings and DO NOT go into those winnings, ensuring that I always leave a winner (if I won at the table). There's plenty of tables. No reason to stay at a cold table. The rest of the trip was absolutely miserable. I couldn't win a game of blackjack if my life depended on it, and it didn't matter which casino or which table I tried, even on the trip back from Vegas. I was always getting 12-16 hands and rotten double-down cards.
I realize that luck is very strange, and regardless of your 'system' or strategy, you have to get good cards, and you have to recognize when you are getting good cards, and bet accordingly and get off a table when you are ahead and start seeing it go downhill. My buddy has played a LOT of blackjack, and he's a progression better. He always increases his bet after a win, and goes down to minimum after a loss. The good thing about that is you never miss your lucky streaks as I did. I always bet too conservatively. However, with his system, he loses money a lot faster.
I don't think progression betting works. What I think really does work (besides counting) is to watch the 'leading indicators' and bet more when they are in your favor, and bet less (or leave a table) when not in your favor. Even as a beginner, here's what I think those indicators are:
1) if your hole cards are mostly 17-21, consistently, bet bigger as you are on a streak
2) if your hole cards are consistently 12-16, as they were on the last 5 days of my trip no matter where I played, you simply cannot win. Advice: don't play 3) If the dealer consistently draws multiple cards and beats you, particularly drawing 21, this is an indication that you are on a bad streak. Quit the table.
I was on one table during that terrible streak where the dealer drew 21 FOUR out of 6 tries. I left the table
4) If you consistently get a good card on a double-down, you are on a good streak and bet accordingly. If you consistently get small cards on your doubles, you can't win. Leave the table.
It's amazing how consistently during that last five days of the trip, the indicators listed above were against me. Anyhow, thought you'd be interested...One final thought. On days when you can't seem to win anywhere, just quit for the day, watch a movie, but don't play slots. Sometimes there seems to be a bad 'karma' around and when you are losing, you will continue to lose, so don't throw good money after bad. Quit for the day. I learned never to touch a slot as they are poison. If I hadn't played slots, even with my bad blackjack days, I would have come out ahead on my first blackjack trip.
There's something about luck.
My buddy has been trying to get me to play blackjack and give up slots. He and his wife go to Vegas at least once per year. He's a crap-head, but that's another story (he always wins, but ends up losing. First day we were there he was up $5,000 but lost it all, AND MORE, by the time we left Vegas 9 days later).
I never played blackjack, but knowing I was going with them this year (end of January-early Feb 2004), for six weeks I studied basic strategy and played thousands and thousands of hands with myself while watching television.
We stayed downtown for 6 days, the stayed at Palace Station for 3 days. We drove from Wisconsin, and spent a couple nights at casinos on the way to/from Vegas. First day in Vegas: stupid me. Living near Indian casinos that don't have to report statistics to the gaming board, I was excited to play slot machines with a better chance of winning (average 94% return downtown). Didn't make a difference. First day I lost $700 in slots at multiple casinos downtown and didn't get anything worth mentioning. Even in an Indian casino I probably would have got at least a $300 jackpot with that amount 'invested'. Then I played blackjack all night and into the next morning, using basic strategy, and won $700 total. I was amazed.
I didn't think I could win at blackjack, as it seems you win a hand, lost a hand, etc, and it evens out. Not exactly, as I found out. I got decent cards, and that's what it's all about. Second day: Still stupid, I played about $400 into slots in various downtown casinos and got nothing. I played blackjack all night again, and won $650, so by now I was a bit ahead for the trip. Again, I had got good cards, with many 20's as my two hole cards.
The next couple days I still played some slots, but didn't put nearly as much into them, but still got nothing. Blackjack seemed to even out a bit, with some exceptions. I would win $100 at a table or two, and lose a hundred. I learned better money management for my next trip. If I start out with a hundred, I'll only lost $50 before I leave a table.
I learned that luck is a strange mistress and really exists. If a table is bad, it seems to stay bad, so why should I stay? That's why I like downtown Vegas: there's so many casinos and so many tables I can move around until (hopefully) I find a 'good' table. It happens.
Ok, here is where I bend over and all of you blackjack-heads can give me a good kick. Believe me, I've done it to myself every day since it happened. About the fourth day, I played single deck, just me and the dealer, and I had the most fantastic cards I'll probably ever have. Some decks (shuffles?) I wouldn't lose a single hand. Over the course of at least 6 decks, I only lost a few hands. My hole cards were almost always 17-21. That is, I wasn't always in the situation of drawing cards. The dealer was busting when she was supposed to, and when I doubled, I got a good card. At one point I was up $400 on the table, but the cards went cold for me, and by the time I realized this and quit the table, I was only up $260. Here's why I kick myself: my biggest bet was $20.
Even without card counting, and even without progression betting (which I don't do) even a dummy like me should have recognized that I was on a good streak and at least bet $50. I should have walked away from that table with $1500 or more. That game was the beginning of the end of my luck for the trip. I had one more decent session the next day, but lost, and here's how. I plunked down my hundred, and got up a hundred. By the time I realized the cards had gone bad, I lost the hundred I won and lost my original hundred.
It was then I hatched my money management scheme, but it was too late. Now, when I get ahead a hundred, I set aside my original hundred and half my winnings and DO NOT go into those winnings, ensuring that I always leave a winner (if I won at the table). There's plenty of tables. No reason to stay at a cold table. The rest of the trip was absolutely miserable. I couldn't win a game of blackjack if my life depended on it, and it didn't matter which casino or which table I tried, even on the trip back from Vegas. I was always getting 12-16 hands and rotten double-down cards.
I realize that luck is very strange, and regardless of your 'system' or strategy, you have to get good cards, and you have to recognize when you are getting good cards, and bet accordingly and get off a table when you are ahead and start seeing it go downhill. My buddy has played a LOT of blackjack, and he's a progression better. He always increases his bet after a win, and goes down to minimum after a loss. The good thing about that is you never miss your lucky streaks as I did. I always bet too conservatively. However, with his system, he loses money a lot faster.
I don't think progression betting works. What I think really does work (besides counting) is to watch the 'leading indicators' and bet more when they are in your favor, and bet less (or leave a table) when not in your favor. Even as a beginner, here's what I think those indicators are:
1) if your hole cards are mostly 17-21, consistently, bet bigger as you are on a streak
2) if your hole cards are consistently 12-16, as they were on the last 5 days of my trip no matter where I played, you simply cannot win. Advice: don't play 3) If the dealer consistently draws multiple cards and beats you, particularly drawing 21, this is an indication that you are on a bad streak. Quit the table.
I was on one table during that terrible streak where the dealer drew 21 FOUR out of 6 tries. I left the table
4) If you consistently get a good card on a double-down, you are on a good streak and bet accordingly. If you consistently get small cards on your doubles, you can't win. Leave the table.
It's amazing how consistently during that last five days of the trip, the indicators listed above were against me. Anyhow, thought you'd be interested...One final thought. On days when you can't seem to win anywhere, just quit for the day, watch a movie, but don't play slots. Sometimes there seems to be a bad 'karma' around and when you are losing, you will continue to lose, so don't throw good money after bad. Quit for the day. I learned never to touch a slot as they are poison. If I hadn't played slots, even with my bad blackjack days, I would have come out ahead on my first blackjack trip.
There's something about luck.
