My "Just Say Yo" article in March 1994 Blackjack Forum

JSTAT

Banned
JUST SAY YO

A card counter looking for cover must use a damage control type of approach when playing craps. The pass line bet is the answer to that player. For every $5 wager on the pass line, the player pays 7 cents for every decision in the long run. If the player is involved with 50 decisions per hour, the casino earns an average of $3.50/hour from him. At that rate, the expenses of the free beverages, labor, and entertainment cancel out any profit the casino might hope against this player. A $5 flat bet pass line player will never add another hotel floor or riverboat to the mighty casino industry.

How To Do It

To obtain chips, give your money to the dealer across from you (not the stickman). The dealer will convert your cash to chips and place them on the come line. Do not try to grab the chips from the dealer. He will place them in front of you.
After the transaction, place your chips from the table to the rack in front of you. You are now ready to play.

Pass Line

The pass line is the genesis of the game. No game starts without a shooter and a bet on the pass (or don't pass) line. In an ongoing game, the player must determine whether that shooter is "coming out" (beginning a series of rolls) or trying to make a "point" (in the midst of a series of rolls). The "puck" in front of the dealer will answer the question. When the puck is not on a number in front of the dealer and is on the dealer's side, it indicates a "come out" roll.
Now place a $5 bet on the pass line. If you win, keep the $5 chip on the pass line and collect the other $5 chip. If you lose, place another $5 on the pass line. Play like this until you determine when to leave.

Taking Odds Increases Fluctuation

Warning: Do not take odds. It is more hazardous to your bankroll. You are chasing good money after bad money.

Shooting the Dice

The shooter (if it is you) has a choice of several dice and must select two (do not pick up all of them). You place your $5 pass line bet and throw the dice to the other end of the table. A good throw of dice should bounce on the table and off the wall in the center.
The pass line immediately wins whenever a 7 or 11 is thrown, and loses with 2, 3 or 12. If one of the remaining numbers is tossed, it is called a "point." The dealer will place the puck on the appropriate number. To win, that number must repeat before the dreaded 7. All other numbers thrown are neutral at this point and have no bearing on the pass line bets.

The Contract

At this time, consider the pass line a "contract bet." Once placed, it is now non-returnable until the point is won. Do not attempt to pick up your pass line bet. If you do, you will be warned and told of the contract bet. With the contract bet, the casino is assured of a 1.414% overall profit, or 7 cents on each $5 wagered on the pass line.

Play at Crowded Tables

To minimize the 7 cent long-term loss with each $5 flat bet, play only at tables full of come, place-bet and proposition bets. This table will tend to slow the dice down because it takes time to pay these bets. Instead of keeping the "dice in the air," the stickman places the dice into a holding pattern by keeping the dice above the proposition bets.
The stickman waits until the dealers have paid off everyone. The "stick" is responsible for booking proposition bets and conducts these pay outs through the dealers at this time. This process can sometimes take up to a full minute.
On a crowded table, the dice will be thrown less frequently per hour. The dice are not moving fast, therefore, you are losing less. The house takes only 7 cents from you each bet. Other suckers are likely to pay more to the house. Just enjoy yourself, order a free cocktail and observe the inner workings of the game.

JSTAT
 
Jstat

JSTAT said:
JUST SAY YO

A card counter looking for cover must use a damage control type of approach when playing craps. The pass line bet is the answer to that player. For every $5 wager on the pass line, the player pays 7 cents for every decision in the long run. If the player is involved with 50 decisions per hour, the casino earns an average of $3.50/hour from him. At that rate, the expenses of the free beverages, labor, and entertainment cancel out any profit the casino might hope against this player. A $5 flat bet pass line player will never add another hotel floor or riverboat to the mighty casino industry.

How To Do It

To obtain chips, give your money to the dealer across from you (not the stickman). The dealer will convert your cash to chips and place them on the come line. Do not try to grab the chips from the dealer. He will place them in front of you.
After the transaction, place your chips from the table to the rack in front of you. You are now ready to play.

Pass Line

The pass line is the genesis of the game. No game starts without a shooter and a bet on the pass (or don't pass) line. In an ongoing game, the player must determine whether that shooter is "coming out" (beginning a series of rolls) or trying to make a "point" (in the midst of a series of rolls). The "puck" in front of the dealer will answer the question. When the puck is not on a number in front of the dealer and is on the dealer's side, it indicates a "come out" roll.
Now place a $5 bet on the pass line. If you win, keep the $5 chip on the pass line and collect the other $5 chip. If you lose, place another $5 on the pass line. Play like this until you determine when to leave.

Taking Odds Increases Fluctuation

Warning: Do not take odds. It is more hazardous to your bankroll. You are chasing good money after bad money.

Shooting the Dice

The shooter (if it is you) has a choice of several dice and must select two (do not pick up all of them). You place your $5 pass line bet and throw the dice to the other end of the table. A good throw of dice should bounce on the table and off the wall in the center.
The pass line immediately wins whenever a 7 or 11 is thrown, and loses with 2, 3 or 12. If one of the remaining numbers is tossed, it is called a "point." The dealer will place the puck on the appropriate number. To win, that number must repeat before the dreaded 7. All other numbers thrown are neutral at this point and have no bearing on the pass line bets.

The Contract

At this time, consider the pass line a "contract bet." Once placed, it is now non-returnable until the point is won. Do not attempt to pick up your pass line bet. If you do, you will be warned and told of the contract bet. With the contract bet, the casino is assured of a 1.414% overall profit, or 7 cents on each $5 wagered on the pass line.

Play at Crowded Tables

To minimize the 7 cent long-term loss with each $5 flat bet, play only at tables full of come, place-bet and proposition bets. This table will tend to slow the dice down because it takes time to pay these bets. Instead of keeping the "dice in the air," the stickman places the dice into a holding pattern by keeping the dice above the proposition bets.
The stickman waits until the dealers have paid off everyone. The "stick" is responsible for booking proposition bets and conducts these pay outs through the dealers at this time. This process can sometimes take up to a full minute.
On a crowded table, the dice will be thrown less frequently per hour. The dice are not moving fast, therefore, you are losing less. The house takes only 7 cents from you each bet. Other suckers are likely to pay more to the house. Just enjoy yourself, order a free cocktail and observe the inner workings of the game.

JSTAT
Very interesting and well done, Thanks!:cool:

CP
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
JSTAT said:
Warning: Do not take odds. It is more hazardous to your bankroll. You are chasing good money after bad money.
While I agree that someone playing craps for cover shouldn't take odds, the reason is that it increases your variance while subtracting nothing from your loss rate. It is not "chasing good money after bad money" (implying an EV negative bet).

Given non-AP betting, the odds bets are the best bets in the house, in that they're the only bet in which the house doesn't have an edge. In the long run, you're better off playing $500 in pass line bets and $1000 in odds bets than playing $1500 in pass line bets. The difference is that for card counters playing craps for cover, you don't care about how much you've bet, you care about your loss rate (units per hour) not your EV (units per unit bet).

To this end, there can actually be better games than craps in terms of cover. For instance, if you play $5 roulette at a crowded table, you can get away with 5 bets per hour (it's very difficult to tell if people are sitting out a hand at roulette). Even though the house edge is higher, you could pay less than $2/hr for cover at roulette because you're playing so few spins per hour. Bet red/black or odd/even for lowest variance.
 

Doofus

Well-Known Member
I always make a minimum pass line bet while taking the full free odds. While variance is increased, it turns the overall house edge down to an infinitesimal amount. I typically will also place the 6 and 8, which has a house edge of 1.4%, but not always. Instead, sometimes I will make a come bet on every roll, and take the full free odds with that. It gets kind of hairy when you have a pass line bet with full odds, plus five more come bets with full odds straight across!
 

bjcount

Well-Known Member
Doofus said:
I always make a minimum pass line bet while taking the full free odds. While variance is increased, it turns the overall house edge down to an infinitesimal amount. I typically will also place the 6 and 8, which has a house edge of 1.4%, but not always. Instead, sometimes I will make a come bet on every roll, and take the full free odds with that. It gets kind of hairy when you have a pass line bet with full odds, plus five more come bets with full odds straight across!
You get all the money out then at that point the shooter usually 7's out. Happens to me all the time. :flame:

BJC
 

JSTAT

Banned
Doofus said:
I always make a minimum pass line bet while taking the full free odds. While variance is increased, it turns the overall house edge down to an infinitesimal amount. I typically will also place the 6 and 8, which has a house edge of 1.4%, but not always. Instead, sometimes I will make a come bet on every roll, and take the full free odds with that. It gets kind of hairy when you have a pass line bet with full odds, plus five more come bets with full odds straight across!
While making the minimum pass line bet, let's say $5, we will lose seven cents in the long run. Taking odds will not reduce the house edge on that $5 bet. Triple odds on the $5 bet will only increase the fluctuations of our bankroll while still losing 7 cents in the long run.

JSTAT
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
Doofus said:
I always make a minimum pass line bet while taking the full free odds. While variance is increased, it turns the overall house edge down to an infinitesimal amount. I typically will also place the 6 and 8, which has a house edge of 1.4%, but not always. Instead, sometimes I will make a come bet on every roll, and take the full free odds with that. It gets kind of hairy when you have a pass line bet with full odds, plus five more come bets with full odds straight across!
Yep, JSTAT is right. The house edge does go down, but since you're betting more anyway, it perfectly compensates for it, so your expected loss/hr is the same but with higher variance.

That being said, if you think it's better cover to have more $ out on the table (it may well be), or for fun, and don't mind the variance, then have at it - that's what I do. The variance I experience in craps is a lot less than I am used to in BJ, and it's fun.
 

JSTAT

Banned
sagefr0g said:
agreed, thanks jstat.

Jstat what do you think of oscars grind and the pass line bet?
Oscars grind on the pass line will still eat us out of 1.414% of all our action in the long run. According to Allan Wilsons book "The Casino Gamblers Guide" on Oscars System, " The chance of reaching a house limit of $500, at increments of $1.00, is probably not less than 1 in 5000. This appears to be a very small chance, but you must bear in mind that if you ever did reach the house limit, you would very likely be in the hole by at least $10,000 at that moment." Sounds like a bit much chasing a small pass line bet.

JSTAT
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
While this is a very good post Jstat why wouldn't one want to just find a decent blackjack game and go and flatbet for an hour? Wouldn't this be much better cover than playing a completely different game? During this time the Pit would get used to you being there and probably just dismiss you as a BS player. If you went to any random 3:2 game and flatbet ( Lets say a HE of .5%) at 70 hands an hour you are only going to lose 5 cents on every 10 dollars you bet. You will only lose 3.50$ an hour and this will also make it seem like you are just a BS player to the pit.
 

JSTAT

Banned
1357111317 said:
While this is a very good post Jstat why wouldn't one want to just find a decent blackjack game and go and flatbet for an hour? Wouldn't this be much better cover than playing a completely different game? During this time the Pit would get used to you being there and probably just dismiss you as a BS player. If you went to any random 3:2 game and flatbet ( Lets say a HE of .5%) at 70 hands an hour you are only going to lose 5 cents on every 10 dollars you bet. You will only lose 3.50$ an hour and this will also make it seem like you are just a BS player to the pit.
"A Real Craps Pro* Gives You The Lowdown!
(Okay, so you want to hit the craps tables for the purpose of camouflage. But you don't understand the game and don't want to lose your shirt. Former Nevada dealer, JSTAT, now reveals the incredible inside secrets of craps!)

*Craps Pro = Mr. JSTAT was a professional dealer in Las Vegas, which is to say, he worked on the side of the table that made the money.

Craps Value Analysis

cost of finishing off your blackjack
session with two hours of rowdy $5 craps: up to $7.00 (including alcohol)

camouflage value: possibly more..."

Arnold Snyder's own words introducing "Just Say Yo!" in the March 1994 Blackjack Forum edition.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
JSTAT said:
"A Real Craps Pro* Gives You The Lowdown!
(Okay, so you want to hit the craps tables for the purpose of camouflage. But you don't understand the game and don't want to lose your shirt. Former Nevada dealer, JSTAT, now reveals the incredible inside secrets of craps!)

*Craps Pro = Mr. JSTAT was a professional dealer in Las Vegas, which is to say, he worked on the side of the table that made the money.

Craps Value Analysis

cost of finishing off your blackjack
session with two hours of rowdy $5 craps: up to $7.00 (including alcohol)

camouflage value: possibly more..."

Arnold Snyder's own words introducing "Just Say Yo!" in the March 1994 Blackjack Forum edition.

That didn't really make a ton of sense... I wasn't doubting your craps knowledge...
 

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
1357111317 said:
While this is a very good post Jstat why wouldn't one want to just find a decent blackjack game and go and flatbet for an hour? Wouldn't this be much better cover than playing a completely different game? During this time the Pit would get used to you being there and probably just dismiss you as a BS player. If you went to any random 3:2 game and flatbet ( Lets say a HE of .5%) at 70 hands an hour you are only going to lose 5 cents on every 10 dollars you bet. You will only lose 3.50$ an hour and this will also make it seem like you are just a BS player to the pit.
This made me think quite a bit :cool2: But I'm not so sure that flat betting one table then going to another (or coming from one) where you are spreading or wonging "throws" the pit off all that much...but that's just my opinion.

To chew up time like someone else said with the crowded roulette table, a crowded craps table is good for that too. But if it's about mixing things up for sake of the eyes of the bosses, it helps to have those same guys looking at you play different games. In other words, it might be pointless to bounce from pit to pit playing different tables for cover. But I may be stating the obvious here :grin:

good luck
 
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