Because there has been some questions raised about the review process, I have decided to post my full review of BJAP as sent to the publisher, from April 2004. As you can see, I did not catch the 6% error.
=======================================================================
Blackjack Ace Prediction: The art of advanced location strategies for the casino game of twenty-one!
By
David McDowell
Reviewed by:
Eliot Jacobson
04/27/2004
Within moments of opening this book for review, I was overwhelmed by two conflicting sentiments, both expressed by the same words: "Oh my god, he's giving away the secrets!"
On the one hand, the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public.
Unfortunately, as the book played out, not many secrets were given away. Indeed, the day after finishing the text, I know two more things than I knew before beginning. One secret is that on a 2-riffle R&R shuffle, the expected number of cards between a key card and the ace that follows is three. The second secret is that if one finds such a shuffle, one can generate and expected edge of about 6% over the house. To a card counter or shuffle tracker this looks great, and it is. To a more sophisticated advantage player, this is yet another weapon in an already huge arsenal.
What were the other "secrets?"
The author did a careful shuffle-tracking study of the step-ladder shuffle and two-pass combo shuffle, and demonstrated that in certain exceptional circumstances, this knowledge could be used to track ace slugs. He also presented a careful study of the 2-riffle R&R shuffle. However, this shuffle is easy to predict so there is hardly anything new to offer here.
The author also provided some well known information about the Bee playing deck and the asymmetry of its design (but this is well-worth restating). He did not mention that if one used a cutting device to mark the edge of the ace, then tracking becomes very easy. I think a section on this and other illegal methods is worthy of note in such a book.
The author provided detailed statistical studies that were interesting and accurate, but difficult to read at parts. I never quite know what to do with the huge amounts of such information the experts generate. How does it translate into action at the tables? That's the only question that matters, and without this answer, the data just hangs there.
One note on technical writing: the author did not seem to have a background in writing mathematics, so formulas and equations are given to the reader without all the necessary elements being adequately presented. For the general reader, this makes the book exceptionally difficult at points. Examples of this weakness are on:
o the bottom of page 28
o the last paragraph of page 30 (what does the .70 represent?)
o page 65 (the patterns of prediction material is very poorly written).
One real weakness is that the author throws technical terms at the reader throughout the book with no mention of prerequisites for reading the book. Terms such as "riffle", "boxed", "cut-offs", "tops" (and many other terms) need to be explained in detail to the reader, or else a reference to a shuffle-tracking book should be given early.
There are a number of typographical errors, and layout errors, but I am sure you will repair that in your final edits. Many of the formulas and tables are split unnaturally across lines, and this makes them very difficult to read.
Here are a couple of typographical errors I found:
o Page 47 (line 3) the probability should be 0.05 (or else the values don't add up).
o The diagram on page 63 should have a 2 of S for c39.
o The diagrams on page 64 should both have Q of D (the second one is Q of S).
I really enjoyed the anecdotes and cited materials. These showed a great deal of research, interest, and expertise on the part of the author. Overall, these parts of the text were the most fun to read.
Have you heard of "black magic?" This is an algorithm that allows one to reconstruct the shuffle given a segment of discards, including the imperfections of the shuffle. The author hinted at this algorithm on pages 63 and 64, but never quite gave it all away. What is "black magic?" I still don't know. If you give that away, I'll buy this book.
I would recommend this book to the expert who has everything, but as a general book, it is not well suited for the beginning ace-tracker.
To the author: do you want to improve this book in a re-write? Stick to the basics. Give answers without the theoretical development. Explain every idea three times: once in general layman's terms, once by example, and once theoretically. Be patient with your writing - there is no hurry. Give away more than you want to, but not more than will hurt you. Then you'll have a book that everyone will want.
=================================================================
Follow up (01/26/05):
I must say that in time I have grown warmer to BJAP, not cooler. It does what few books have done; it points out real possibilities to beat bj using techniques other than counting. I think McDowell did a fair job in answering the criticisms included in my review in his rewrite and the book that went to market was greatly improved over the one I reviewed. I would still recommend it today as a book every serious ap should own.
I have written that McDowell's book is an instant classic. It is. Any book that is a watershed for new thinking by the masses of ap's about blackjack deserves such praise.
--Mayor
=======================================================================
Blackjack Ace Prediction: The art of advanced location strategies for the casino game of twenty-one!
By
David McDowell
Reviewed by:
Eliot Jacobson
04/27/2004
Within moments of opening this book for review, I was overwhelmed by two conflicting sentiments, both expressed by the same words: "Oh my god, he's giving away the secrets!"
On the one hand, the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public.
Unfortunately, as the book played out, not many secrets were given away. Indeed, the day after finishing the text, I know two more things than I knew before beginning. One secret is that on a 2-riffle R&R shuffle, the expected number of cards between a key card and the ace that follows is three. The second secret is that if one finds such a shuffle, one can generate and expected edge of about 6% over the house. To a card counter or shuffle tracker this looks great, and it is. To a more sophisticated advantage player, this is yet another weapon in an already huge arsenal.
What were the other "secrets?"
The author did a careful shuffle-tracking study of the step-ladder shuffle and two-pass combo shuffle, and demonstrated that in certain exceptional circumstances, this knowledge could be used to track ace slugs. He also presented a careful study of the 2-riffle R&R shuffle. However, this shuffle is easy to predict so there is hardly anything new to offer here.
The author also provided some well known information about the Bee playing deck and the asymmetry of its design (but this is well-worth restating). He did not mention that if one used a cutting device to mark the edge of the ace, then tracking becomes very easy. I think a section on this and other illegal methods is worthy of note in such a book.
The author provided detailed statistical studies that were interesting and accurate, but difficult to read at parts. I never quite know what to do with the huge amounts of such information the experts generate. How does it translate into action at the tables? That's the only question that matters, and without this answer, the data just hangs there.
One note on technical writing: the author did not seem to have a background in writing mathematics, so formulas and equations are given to the reader without all the necessary elements being adequately presented. For the general reader, this makes the book exceptionally difficult at points. Examples of this weakness are on:
o the bottom of page 28
o the last paragraph of page 30 (what does the .70 represent?)
o page 65 (the patterns of prediction material is very poorly written).
One real weakness is that the author throws technical terms at the reader throughout the book with no mention of prerequisites for reading the book. Terms such as "riffle", "boxed", "cut-offs", "tops" (and many other terms) need to be explained in detail to the reader, or else a reference to a shuffle-tracking book should be given early.
There are a number of typographical errors, and layout errors, but I am sure you will repair that in your final edits. Many of the formulas and tables are split unnaturally across lines, and this makes them very difficult to read.
Here are a couple of typographical errors I found:
o Page 47 (line 3) the probability should be 0.05 (or else the values don't add up).
o The diagram on page 63 should have a 2 of S for c39.
o The diagrams on page 64 should both have Q of D (the second one is Q of S).
I really enjoyed the anecdotes and cited materials. These showed a great deal of research, interest, and expertise on the part of the author. Overall, these parts of the text were the most fun to read.
Have you heard of "black magic?" This is an algorithm that allows one to reconstruct the shuffle given a segment of discards, including the imperfections of the shuffle. The author hinted at this algorithm on pages 63 and 64, but never quite gave it all away. What is "black magic?" I still don't know. If you give that away, I'll buy this book.
I would recommend this book to the expert who has everything, but as a general book, it is not well suited for the beginning ace-tracker.
To the author: do you want to improve this book in a re-write? Stick to the basics. Give answers without the theoretical development. Explain every idea three times: once in general layman's terms, once by example, and once theoretically. Be patient with your writing - there is no hurry. Give away more than you want to, but not more than will hurt you. Then you'll have a book that everyone will want.
=================================================================
Follow up (01/26/05):
I must say that in time I have grown warmer to BJAP, not cooler. It does what few books have done; it points out real possibilities to beat bj using techniques other than counting. I think McDowell did a fair job in answering the criticisms included in my review in his rewrite and the book that went to market was greatly improved over the one I reviewed. I would still recommend it today as a book every serious ap should own.
I have written that McDowell's book is an instant classic. It is. Any book that is a watershed for new thinking by the masses of ap's about blackjack deserves such praise.
--Mayor