My Strategy Applied To Card Counting

[Licentia]

Let me run this by you all to see what you think of it...

Let's say you begin with a $5000.00 bankroll. You are betting $5 base bets. (These are all just example numbers).

1st session: $5 base bets. Result: -$90.00 (Total -$4910.00)

2nd session $5 base bets. Result: -$70.00 (Total -$4840.00)

3rd session $5 base bets. Result: +$60.00 (Total - $4900.00)
Since you had a winning session you would increase your bet by one unit.

4th session $10 base bets. Result -$150.00 (Total - $4750.00)
You had a losing session so you would drop your bet one unit.

5th session $5 base bets. Result +$70.00 (Total - $4820.00)
Increase bets one unit.

6th session $10 base bets. Result +$130.00 (Total -$4950.00)
Increase bets one unit.

7th session $15 base bets. Result +$250.00 (Total +$5200.00)
Drop back down to $5 base bets and start the cycle over again.

Since Card Counting gives a positive expectation you will always recouperate your losses. Would this be a beneficial strategy for a card counter? Recouperating your losses?

Would it be better than flat betting at $10 or $15? It's just an idea. I am wondering myself because I would like to apply the idea to my second strategy and I am wondering if it has potential to increase profits.

Essentially you would never lose money, because you would always recouperate your losses with profit on top. But you would probably have a lower base bet than you would if you didn't attempt to recouperate losses. Oh but that there were sims to test these ideas!!!!

Licentia.

 

[Sonny]

Since Card Counting gives a positive expectation you will always recouperate your losses. Would this be a beneficial strategy for a card counter? Recouperating your losses?

No because you never know when you are about to have a winning session. What happens if you raise your bets and start losing again? Suddenly you are losing more when you bet high and winning less because you are dropping back to your base bet before a winning session. Changing your bets based on the previous session is just another form of progression betting. A card counter wants to change his bets based on his actual advantage before each hand, not the meaningless results of his previous hands. Randomly adjusting your bets will not give you an advantage even if you are using card counting along with it.

Essentially you would never lose money, because you would always recouperate your losses with profit on top.

That is not true at all. You will still lose about 48% of your sessions. If you bet too much during a losing session then you could go broke before you get to play another winning session. What if you have 10 losing sessions in a row? This is the concept behind risk of ruin. If you bet more money than your bankroll can withstand then you will probably go broke during a normal downswing even if you are playing with an advantage. Knowing how and when to bet your money is crucial to success. If you apply progression systems to card counting you will just end up with another losing progression system.

-Sonny-

 

[Licentia]

I'm tired of arguing.

Licentia.

 

[aslan]

I'm tired of arguing.

Licentia.

I do not detect argumentativeness in Sonny's words. He is simply responding to your proposition, which he doesn't agree with.

 

[Guynoire]

Since your system does not change the bet based on the count but rather the previous session's result's card counting would have little effect. The only way your system could be profitible with card counting is if you found a really good single or maybe double deck game and won by varying basic strategy based on the count. However, you could achieve the same results by flat betting the session.