n00b question about hourly rate

[evilrobotmonkey]

Let's say I'm playing the following game:

Double deck, Dealer hits soft 17, Insurance, No surrender, Double down any, Double down after split, Resplit Aces... basically all rules in my favor except for F17 and surrender. Penetration is about 70%.

At the following betting spreads, how much should I expect to make?

$10 min table, playing two hands

Count .... Bet
0 and below - $10 each hand
+1 - $15 each hand
+2 - $20 each hand
+3 - $25 each hand
+4 - $40 each hand
+5 - $50 each hand
+6 to +8 - $75 each hand
+8 and above - $100 each hand



$25 min table, playing one hand


Count .... Bet
0 and below - $25
+1 - $25
+2 - $50
+3 - $50 ($75 if pen. is deep)
+4 - $75
+5 - $100
+6 to +8 - $125
+8 and above - $150


I wong out about 20% of the time when the count gets to 5 or below.

Is there a website or formula I can use to calcuate this so I can do it myself?

 

[Sonny]

Is there a website or formula I can use to calcuate this so I can do it myself?

A good simulator like CVCX or CVData from Qfit will give you all the answers.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

[/QUOTE]

At the following betting spreads, how much should I expect to make?...
Is there a website or formula I can use to calcuate this so I can do it myself?

Always how much will I make - never at what risk to how much for how long

Like Sonny says you need a sim to answer all your spread questions in all their variety. Be prepared to specify your counting system, use of indexes, number of players at table, etc. Even something as crazy as the bankroll you are willing to risk in case you may have the slightest interest in that too.

Do you have Don's BJAIII? If so, I ran your 2nd spread thru his Table 10.94 since I have no sim software but the game seemed reasonably similar.

Just so you know I think his tables assume Hi-lo and use of full indexes. I think his TC's are floored and his index numbers for 2D may slightly differ from Wong's 1D. Maybe becasue it's 2D and maybe also because they are floored and I think Wong truncates his neg counts. I'd have to look up whether they are based on half or maybe even quarter-deck assumptions. How do you determine your TC?

His tables don't break-out frequencies and advantages and SD's at specific counts, choosing to lump them all into one line, so I cannot get to your "25% of the time I wong out at some -TC count".

I don't think it assumes you can re-split Aces.

All that aside, but I hope it gives you nonetheless some idea of what may be involved in running a sim, here's at least a ballpark from that table. (Assumes playall, Hi-Lo, use of floored indexes are the biggies I think).

Your avg bet per round will be 1.47 units or $37. Your win rate per round will be 0.0117 units or 29 cents. Your overall EV is 0.79%. Your SD is 2.1 units per round, 21 units per 100 hands. Your SCORE is 31. N0 32360 hands. Double roll in 34280 hands. Etc.

You could probably refine your spread a little to produce a higher SCORE.

You have 8 more cards penetration and want to test out that $75 bet at "deeper" pen?, maybe use the next table. Whatever "deeper" may mean to you lol.

Just trying to say that's the crapola sims will give you anyway and, if you have BJAIII and can figure out how I got what I got from just that table, then you'll know how to interpret the results any sim can give you. The only thing that ever changes anyway is frequency, adv at each TC and SD at each TC. That's it. After you tell it rules, pen, indexes, counting system, multiple hand spreading, etc.

You could probably use the free Powersim to answer your re-split Aces rule and wonging out at -5 or less every so often and deeper pen question. I don't think it handles spreading to multiple hands. Not sure what counting systems it can handle.

Such a simple question, so hard to answer ~$100 investment answers all lol.

 

[moo321]

'bout 2 units an hour is my guess. But the next question you need to ask is, what should my unit be?

 

[rukus]

if you ramp your bets optimally, i would say closer to 4-5 units/hour with a 1-10 spread and wonging out at "significantly" negative counts, like maybe -4 or something. with a 1-6 spread, probably 3-4 units an hour. thats a pretty good game there.

EDIT: this was with a level-2 system

 

[mjbballar23]

re

$10 minimum - $46 per 100 hands and a NO of 10,400 hands
$25 minimum - $34 per 100 hands and a NO of 24,000 hands

somewhere close to that assuming you are using HI LO