Need advice on best strategy and bet ramp

[tezzadiver]

Hi All,

What is the best playing strategy for this game..
0.20 % advantage off the top. 6 decks- Pen between 50-60%.

Should I just flat bet(large) and hopefully not get wiped out by variance or bet ramp 1-12 as normal (10$) being minimum or ramp it even higher due to crappy pen?

All sane answers appreciated.

 

[tezzadiver]

Forgot to mention I have 60 hrs to play this game (approx) and a 5k bank.

 

[revrac]

Forgot to mention I have 60 hrs to play this game (approx) and a 5k bank.

I'd just play as you normally play but add +1 to all your TC's, assuming your using a level 1 system. This is just the first thing i thought of though so i'm sure someone else can give you a more tested approach.

 

[tezzadiver]

so leave bet ramp at 1-12? I`m a hi-lo player by the way with over 40 index plays.

 

[revrac]

so leave bet ramp at 1-12? I`m a hi-lo player by the way with over 40 index plays.

that is what i would do if this situation presented itself and I had not done any research or testing as to what the best strategy may be, as i said, this is the first thing that came to mind and i'm sure others may have a more tried and true approach.

You have an advantage off the top, so you want to bet more, you'd normally have roughly .5% lower advantage than you do starting off and 1 TC is roughly half a percent advantage. So whatever your count is add +1 for BETTING purposes but use the actual TC for playing decisions.

 

[blackriver]

I would start with a $50 bet and quickly drop down after the first or second loss if the count doesn't go up and making $250 bets at +5 which you'll never see. be much more aggressive toward the end of the trip if you're up. you can also be more aggressive if where you're at had other things to do besides gambling whereas if you lose your roll in AC you should just kill yourself

 

[tezzadiver]

That makes sense revrac. Input appreciated.

 

[tthree]

This question could be answered more intelligently if you state the rule change that gave you the extra edge.

 

[tezzadiver]

I would start with a $50 bet and quickly drop down after the first or second loss if the count doesn't go up and making $250 bets at +5 which you'll never see. be much more aggressive toward the end of the trip if you're up. you can also be more aggressive if where you're at had other things to do besides gambling whereas if you lose your roll in AC you should just kill yourself

$250 is a bit high. My bankroll is only 5K.

I was thinking more on the lines of 2 bets out at all times ($10 per bet)(except minus counts) and ramping up to 2 x $80 in high counts.

Can anyone run a sim on this?

 

[tezzadiver]

Es

 

[tthree]

Es

Early surrender is more valuable for larger spreads. Getting those big bets out at high advantage and surrendering the crappy hands really adds up. Press your advantage as much as is reasonable when the count favors you.

 

[blackriver]

that is what i would do if this situation presented itself and I had not done any research or testing as to what the best strategy may be.

people are way too focused on research and sims. Playing a winning strategy is the easy part. Once you have a thorough understanding of why and how card counting works your focus should be on things like longevity. If you haven't read ian anderson yet you should. All these sims and testing hurt when they have any effect on how you're seen at the table. if some edge gained makes you come across as 10% more nerdy or less degenerate then it's a mistake.

A focus on longevity makes it clear that having such a good game means you need to spread less. Figure out what top bet (and tROR) you would be comfortable with and set your unit size between 1/6th to 1/10th of that and make your first bet about 2 units. don't be too greedy at first. you want a lower ror at the beginning. By betting a little small at first they won't scrutinize you as heavily when they're making their first impression of you. Winning, losing or stagnation all help provide a narrative if you choose to bet bigger later in the trip because of a windfall, increased comfort and/or a decreased opportunity cost of ruin

 

[blackriver]

$250 is a bit high. My bankroll is only 5k

ahh, I thought that was just a trip bank roll. then I suggest following the advice of my last post but feel free to spread closer to 1-10, but still begin your shoes with 2 units so you'll look less blatant when you get your max bets out. Remember, the better a game it's the more on guard they are likely to be and the more it'll suck to get backed off.

 

[London Colin]

You have an advantage off the top, so you want to bet more,

That doesn't necessarily follow. Without the off-the-top advantage you'd rather not bet at all (i.e. Wong in), but you may be obliged to play all.

With the advantage, play-all makes more sense, but the size of your smallest bet must still be a function of your bankroll. I would think betting the minimum (or indeed wonging in) can still be appropriate, depending on the size of the BR.

$250 is a bit high. My bankroll is only 5K.

I was thinking more on the lines of 2 bets out at all times ($10 per bet)(except minus counts) and ramping up to 2 x $80 in high counts.

Can anyone run a sim on this?

With a 5K BR, a half-kelly bet for a single hand at 0.2% adv. would be approximately 0.5 * 5000 * 0.2% = $5.

As ever, I suppose it comes down to how much risk you choose to tolerate.

Given that the min bet is $10, maybe it would be better to start with one hand.

 

[snorky]

is the .17 edge straight off basic strategy or the 40 index plays?

It might be a good idea to just flatbet 3 hands every round (since it reduces your variance, while increases your winrate) and sit out or just play 1 hand when the count becomes negative. I'd imagine your edge being bigger than .17 if you were to incorporate the 40 indices through flatbetting.

That's just my opinion though. It might not be optimum, but its simple.

 

[Sonny]

Es

Are you sure it's ES and not ES10 (against a 10 only, not against an ace)? There is about a 0.5% difference.

As far as your betting strategy, with such a small bankroll you aren't going to make a huge score so you probably want to milk the game...unless you expect someone else to burn it. Find out what the casino's choke point is. If you can still earn a decent wage then try to stay under it for as long as you can. You can always become more aggressive once you build up your bankroll and/or start getting heat.

-Sonny-

 

[revrac]

people are way too focused on research and sims. Playing a winning strategy is the easy part. Once you have a thorough understanding of why and how card counting works your focus should be on things like longevity. If you haven't read ian anderson yet you should. All these sims and testing hurt when they have any effect on how you're seen at the table. if some edge gained makes you come across as 10% more nerdy or less degenerate then it's a mistake.

A focus on longevity makes it clear that having such a good game means you need to spread less. Figure out what top bet (and tROR) you would be comfortable with and set your unit size between 1/6th to 1/10th of that and make your first bet about 2 units. don't be too greedy at first. you want a lower ror at the beginning. By betting a little small at first they won't scrutinize you as heavily when they're making their first impression of you. Winning, losing or stagnation all help provide a narrative if you choose to bet bigger later in the trip because of a windfall, increased comfort and/or a decreased opportunity cost of ruin

I agree with most of this, but if someone had not done the research and testing in the first place no one would of ever known it was possible. So to completely throw it out the window is careless.

 

[revrac]

That doesn't necessarily follow. Without the off-the-top advantage you'd rather not bet at all (i.e. Wong in), but you may be obliged to play all.

With the advantage, play-all makes more sense, but the size of your smallest bet must still be a function of your bankroll. I would think betting the minimum (or indeed wonging in) can still be appropriate, depending on the size of the BR.

Agreed that if your bankroll is too small this may not necessarily be the case. I would say that better than wonging in though would just be wonging out once count turned, much less obvious and works in almost all situations where wonging in can be tough under a variety of circumstances.


Given the OP stated is ES though, i would do as others suggested and just bet a little more aggressively.

 

[laserjet]

This isn't an internet game I hope.

 

[tezzadiver]

Thank you for all the considered replies. And no this is not a internet game :laugh:

It is ES and not ES10.

Wish I had a 50k bankroll!!! Oh well....

Guess I`m gonna take a chance and put slightly higher bets considering my time restraint.