Need help with creating my system

[jee_pack]

By system, I mean, I am trying to figure out how I will play when I hit the casino.

Here's what I have so far. I know it's only 8 deck games and I know all their tables have about 0.45% of an advantage over the players. I am also assuming that since it's my only local casino, I want to wong the least possible to look like a normal player for longevity sakes.

Counting with Hi-Low, the house has 0 advantage over me (actually I have 0.05% advantage on the house) at True Count +1. The count goes up to +2 enough for me to find a couple of those in one session (a few hours), and maybe one count higher than +2 per session. If I only play the +2's, I would be over wonging and I would't have enough time to play a descent amount of hands (which would be extra heat so more stress and less fun). So what I want to do is play with TC's of +1 and higher. Most of the time, I will just play with no advantage but no dissadvantage either. This will mean that in theory, all the hands I will play with a TC of +1 to +2, will actually make me win in the very long term. And it also means that I will sit down and play more hands as when I play with a TC of about 1.5, even though its not much of an edge, more cards get dealt (since I'm playing) so this way I can see quicker if the shoe is good or bad for me.

OPTIMAL TIME TO WONG IN? OPTIMAL TIME TO WONG OUT? AND IS MY MATH RIGHT, DO I KEEP MY ADVANTAGE BY PLAYING THIS WAY?

and by optimal I mean, evaluating the risks, for instance, you could wong in too early or too late. Early would mean you end up wonging out right after and perhaps miss the second half of the shoe which had a TC of +4... And same thing goes for wonging out after seing the count go down, perhaps you want to stay for one or 2 hands, see what happens to the count, or perhaps you want to just stay but not play a few hands...?

Last bit of info, OPTIMAL BET IS 1 UNIT at TC+2. Between +1 and +2, I would still bet 1 unit but I would play only +1's and over. So I would want to find a safe spot perhaps at 1.5 of TC. And I would preferably never play under +1...

Any input on this would be greatly apreciated, thanks in advance

 

[sagefr0g]

i'm thinking the house advantage may be a bit greater than 0.45 . i don't know the exact rules for the game though.
your getting close to having a viable game plan. i think your going to end up playing from fresh shoes quite a bit so that would mean playing more at a disadvantge than you are antisipating. and to get the most play in the tc>=1 range you'll be wonging out quite a bit and perhaps wonging in some. for eight deck i think i'd be getting up from the table at around two or three decks dealt out if the count hasn't become productive by then.
you haven't described a bet spread but you should have one planned for this type of play. if you were just wonging in you wouldn't necessarily need a bet spread but i don't think only wonging in is in your plans.

 

[jee_pack]

Actually, I have something else in mind, but what just described is the plan I tryed before this one (my first one ever). I now know that I am at a dissadvantage. So now my new simulation will be base on backcounting. I would backcount untill the TC would be about 1.5, then I would act like I just want to play a few hands (my trick: have chips in my pockets, and just sit down with 3-4 unit bets in front of me, if ever the count gets good and I run out of chips, I just grab a bigger pile of chips from my pocket and keep playing, whenever I wongout, I either do it cuse I just lost a hand, cuse I won a big amount or cuse I won a lot and I feel a bad streak coming, what ever the fake excuse may be).

So what I want to figure is how to optimize this equation:

1. I want to wong-in for as many rounds as possible without ever starting a fresh shoe (so as close as possible to the start of the shoe, and for the max amount of rounds before wonging out).

2. Then mathematically using +1 as the "0" of the advantage scale, I want to never play with a dissadvantage.

3. So I now have to figure out what is my risk of going in for nothing for each shoe that I backcount. That is of course, only considering counts that go higher than +1. This has to be based not only in true count, but also in running count. I can't do the math but I know what the math needs to calculate. Example: A:how many hands per round (while you backcount), B:number of decks left, C:running count. This is all you need. Lets say A=5 compared to A=1 in any given situation. If you wong-in at 1.5 TC, there is a lot more risk that the TC turns to 0.5 after the cards are dealt if A=5, than if it was A=1, cuse more cards are being dealt. And compare B=4 to B=7, if you wong-in at TC 1.5, you have much more risk to have to TC fall under +1 in the first round with B:7 cuse running count is much higher when TC 1.5 is obtained with 7 decks left..

Man all this is making my head spin, I'm not planning on hitting the casino tomorow, I have casino verité which allows me to backcount 1 to 4 hands before I jump in the game. So I want to simulate this game play to get an idea of how much wonging in and out it represents... And I just do I my software... Then I can look at the graphic stats of the session and I get a good idea of if I improved or not from my previous session)