I work at a casino and am currently involved in some lofty bets with coworkers. It is my contention that your longterm expectation in bj is unaffected by others improper play at the table. I have read this fact in numerous places online.... But the coworkers say thats just thier opinion and that i need to have some mathmatical proof before they will pay up. Where can i find such proof?
need help with some math
- Thread starter jl4102
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21gunsalute
Well-Known Member
There is no proof here whatsoever. These are just 2 hypothetical situations (out of an infinite number of possibilities) with conditions that would never happen, or at least that no one could be aware of in such detail. I don't believe it can be proven mathematically one way or the other...there are just too many possibilities and situations to consider...but it should be quite obvious that if everyone is playing perfect basic strategy and/or counting and using indexes, that the dealer is going to bust more often than if one or more people are playing by the seats of their pants, at least in the long run, since that is a rather large part of how and why these strategies were designed and developed.Canceler said:
AJ-21
New Member
Don't take her bust card!!!
Been reading for a couple weeks here, great site. Guess it's time for me to weigh in on this one. This sounds a lot like the "sacred flow of cards" to me. Playing perfect BS or playing out your @$$ has nothing to do with how many times the dealer will bust. Bad players will help you just as much as hurt you over time. I think we just remember the hurts more.21gunsalute said:
21gunsalute
Well-Known Member
I think it's a little of both. Otherwise why wouldn't you hit a 12 against a 6? The dealer still has a 57% chance of making a hand and you only have a 31% chance of busting your hand by doing so. Yet if you do so you're bound to get an earful from others at the table. Basic strategy says to stand in this case because even though you only have a 31% chance of busting your hand, you're still more likely to lose the hand if you hit rather than stay, and by hitting you may very well take the dealers bust card, whether it's a high card or a low card.AJ-21 said:Been reading for a couple weeks here, great site. Guess it's time for me to weigh in on this one. This sounds a lot like the "sacred flow of cards" to me. Playing perfect BS or playing out your @$$ has nothing to do with how many times the dealer will bust. Bad players will help you just as much as hurt you over time. I think we just remember the hurts more.
Obviously the dealer busting is very important both in Basic Strategy and using indexes. No well informed person is going to criticize someone for making a proper play even when an improper play may have saved the table but will likely jump all over someone for making an improper play that takes the dealers bust card, or fails to take a card that causes a dealer to make a hand. And I think it should be obvious that Basic Strategy and indexes are based in no small part on playing certain hands in certain ways because the dealer is more likely to bust if they are played properly. So I think it is indeed a little of both.
rrwoods
Well-Known Member
Even knowing that
That "dealer bust card" or "dealer bust clump" (if it's going to take 2+ cards) has the same probability of being one card back as it does of being zero cards back. Obviously if I pull a card that could bust the dealer, I've reduced the bust probability slightly, but not knowing the cards (i.e., before they come out but after you've decided to hit) how can hitting actually affect the bust percentage?
I'd like to know whyQFIT said:
just out of sheer curiosity.QFIT said:
That "dealer bust card" or "dealer bust clump" (if it's going to take 2+ cards) has the same probability of being one card back as it does of being zero cards back. Obviously if I pull a card that could bust the dealer, I've reduced the bust probability slightly, but not knowing the cards (i.e., before they come out but after you've decided to hit) how can hitting actually affect the bust percentage?
QFIT
Well-Known Member
If the players all bust, the dealer can't bust since the dealer doesn't play. So, the dealer bust rate can be affected by players. That's why the bust rate varies by the number of players. But, it's irrelevant. Even though the dealer bust rate increases with more players, the house edge is still the same.
See Modern Blackjack page 437.
See Modern Blackjack page 437.
AJ-21
New Member
Maybe I'm wrong, but what I'm getting from you here is that if everyone plays proper BS and variations based on the count, then the dealer will bust more often. This simply isn't true. You never know what the next card is going to be. Basic strategy plays are made because they have been proven to either win more or lose less in the long run. The dealer does not have to bust for you to win either, but it sure does help sometimes. :grin:21gunsalute said: