Need some advice

[moe2185]

Hey guys, im from canada and for about 3 months now I have been counting cards with a buddy and well it has been a roller coaster for a while now. Last night we were at a casino and right when we got in there there was a table with 25$ min and 100$ max. Normally we play the 5$ table but for fun I back counted this table and watch 2 guys with about 1600 each just get molested. Needless to say the count reached a TC of +8 and I was like damn we prolly wont see one of these tonight so I sat down with 400$ and went nuts on the table. Within the first 5 hands of 2x50 - 2x100 bets I hit 3 blackjacks off the top. Dealer never showed a face for all the hands, it was awesome. But here is the kicker she drew out on everything, it was ridiculous. Within 8 hands I had busted out my 400 and the TC remained at +6. I felt like an idiot just because I had hit 3 black jacks back to back and I still busted.

So it was back to basics at this point, sat down at a 10-100 table with 300 and slowly waited for another oppotunity. First one came and TC was +10 so I started raising. At this point I had flat betted up to about 450 so I had a little leeway. At the end of that shoe i was back down to 250. I was pissed 2 +ve in a row and nothing to show for it. Here again I waited for another oppurtunity, 45 min later I get a +5 count and there were about 4 hands left to be played so I started putting down 50$ 75$ and 100$ bets. Ended up loosing more than I won.

The count I know is fine since one of us is doing the counting while the other bets. He sits right beside me and just tells me what the count is in a different language, never had a prob yet, but thats cause we prolly havent won anything lol. I feel like the variance is prolly owning me in terms of my bankroll to start, and what my max bet is (100$) but at the same time it seems wrong that 3 high count shoes in a row knock me around like that.

So for all the experienced guys out there is this normal? Its just discouraging and I really dont want to give up. We have gone to the casino to count a total for 6 times at about 6-8 hours each time. first 2 times we make money and always on the 3rd time we get owned for more than what we profited on. Overall we are down about 1000$, its not much to you guys i know but we are just small fish and thats a ton of money to us. Any advice? Thanks ahead of time.

 

[Sonny]

Within 8 hands I had busted out my 400 and the TC remained at +6. I felt like an idiot just because I had hit 3 black jacks back to back and I still busted.

It’s very easy to lose $400 when you’re betting $100-$200 per hand. In fact, it’s easy to lose that much on a single hand after a few splits and doubles hit the table.

You are going to lose a lot of hands when you play BJ. You are always more likely to lose the next hand no matter what the count is, so be ready for disappointment. Imagine a bowl with 47 white marbles (wins) and 53 black ones (losses). Pick a marble out of the bowl and put it back. You’ll be surprised how many times you pick up several black ones in a row.

So it was back to basics at this point, sat down at a 10-100 table with 300 and slowly waited for another oppotunity. First one came and TC was +10 so I started raising.

At what point do you start raising your bets? If you were flat betting until +10 TC then you were missing a lot of opportunities. You should be backcounting until around +2 or +3 and raising your bets then. If you wait too long to raise your bets then all the little bets are going to eat away at your bankroll.

I feel like the variance is prolly owning me in terms of my bankroll to start, and what my max bet is (100$) but at the same time it seems wrong that 3 high count shoes in a row knock me around like that.

That’s completely normal. For a one-hour session you only have about a 52% chance of winning. That means you will lose money almost half the time. That’s just the natural variance. Any given hour of play could show a swing of 30-60 units or more. You’ve got to be prepared for that. If you don’t have a big enough bankroll to survive the negative swings you’re going to be very unhappy very often.

So for all the experienced guys out there is this normal?..Overall we are down about 1000$, its not much to you guys i know but we are just small fish and thats a ton of money to us. Any advice?

You are only down about 10 max bets. That’s nothing. Like I said, you could lose 60 or more units in an hour with a swing of 2 standard deviations. Card counting is a huge rollercoaster ride. Just make sure you have a big enough bankroll before you strap yourself in. Also, make sure that you are playing a strong game. Avoid games with bad rules/penetration and make sure your bet ramp is optimized for the game you are playing. Sometimes a small change can make a big difference in your risk of ruin and EV.

-Sonny-

 

[EasyRhino]

True counts of +8 and +10 on the same night? Are you using hi-lo? Those seem awfully high... did you divide wrong?

Here's a reality check though: Even if the TC is +10 and there's only one deck left, that means there's still 21 low cards left in the deck that can kick your ass. Not only that, but if the dealer ends up getting the high cards instead of you, you're still dead meat. That's how small and uncertain the advantage you gain from counting is.

And variance is a bitch. I'm still working off a bankroll downdraft that, if all I was doing was counting, would have knocked about 40% off my BR.

It sounds like you walked into the casino with $400. And you placed some bets of $100. That's too much. There's the rule of thumb of having 12 max bets available for a session. If it was a really short session, I still wouldn't go less than 8-10 max bets. (Remember, one hand has the chance to balloon to 8x its original size). And you shouldn't even place a bet if it means you won't be able to split it a couple of times.

Something like 2X$25 would seem to be appropriate big bets with $400 in your pocket. Min bets would have to be $5 or $0.

 

[moe2185]

Ya I was so shocked as well, it was literally the first shoe I looked at while I was waiting for my buddy to go the bathroom and get a drink, when he got back I was so excited. But you're right my bets should have been smaller, it just looked so juicy. I did divide right and its not like I wasnt hitting anything, in those 8 hands I hit 3 blackjacks but the dealer busted only 1 time. It was a really good night in terms of +ve counts because they came early so they didnt start messing with the penetration till after.

I was 100% sure our cover was blown after about the 5th shoe but they didnt say anything so we just kept playing to get back to even. Pretty funny watching the pitboss sit there counting the cards with a pen and paper.

 

[EasyRhino]

Pretty funny watching the pitboss sit there counting the cards with a pen and paper.

If that's really what he was doing (he might have been tallying chips in the tray, or rating players for comps), then I wouldn't recommend working in his pit for a while, just out of common sense.

And it was a great personal epiphany for me when I learned that a high count means nothing.

Well, that's not exactly true, a count of +5 might mean an edge of 2% or so.

... and a 2% advantage means nothing. It's just not "feel-able" at all.

 

[sagefr0g]

True counts of +8 and +10 on the same night? Are you using hi-lo? Those seem awfully high... did you divide wrong?

.......

my thoughts exactly. very unlikely events to be sure.

 

[zengrifter]

So for all the experienced guys out there is this normal? Its just discouraging and I really dont want to give up. We have gone to the casino to count a total for 6 times at about 6-8 hours each time. first 2 times we make money and always on the 3rd time we get owned for more than what we profited on. Overall we are down about 1000$, its not much to you guys i know but we are just small fish and thats a ton of money to us. Any advice? Thanks ahead of time.

You are OVERBETTING! zg

 

[davidpom]

counting and betting accordingly

Make sure you are maintaining a true count AND a running count. A +6 count with 3 decks left to play is only +2 in true count terms....

It also sounds like your chance of ruin is high, because you're betting too much per hand relative to your bankroll. You need 40-50 times your average stake to ensure you can roll out the rides of standard deviation.

You might find some of my articles helpful (bearing in mind i've been barred from playing in ALL UK land-based casinos, for suspected card counting):

http://beatthecasinos.blogspot.com/2008/02/card-shuffler-friend-or-enemy.html (Archive copy)

http://beatthecasinos.blogspot.com/2007/11/partwork-two-money-management-in.html (Archive copy)

 

[zengrifter]

Make sure you are maintaining a true count AND a running count.

What a concept! zg

 

[davidpom]

ZenGrifter, I'm glad you agree the concept of a running count and a true count is a good idea. I was beginning to get worried there!

 

[InPlay]

What a concept! zg

What do you do if you are useing an unbalanced count ?

 

[Sonny]

You need 40-50 times your average stake to ensure you can roll out the rides of standard deviation.

40-50 units per hour will be about what you'll need.

You might find some of my articles helpful (bearing in mind i've been barred from playing in ALL UK land-based casinos, for suspected card counting):

beatthecasinos.blogspot.com/2008/02/card-shuffler-friend-or-enemy.html

beatthecasinos.blogspot.com/2007/11/partwork-two-money-management-in.html

Those articles aren't really helpful to most of the people on this website. Most of us play with an advantage of some sort, so the typical "money management" and "stop loss" techniques don't really apply to us.

-Sonny-

 

[rollem411]

I feel like the variance is prolly owning me in terms of my bankroll to start, and what my max bet is (100$) but at the same time it seems wrong that 3 high count shoes in a row knock me around like that.

So for all the experienced guys out there is this normal? Its just discouraging and I really dont want to give up. We have gone to the casino to count a total for 6 times at about 6-8 hours each time. first 2 times we make money and always on the 3rd time we get owned for more than what we profited on. Overall we are down about 1000$, its not much to you guys i know but we are just small fish and thats a ton of money to us. Any advice? Thanks ahead of time.

Welcome to my world...I lost almost double that in my very first 2 sessions at the casino with the same max bet (100). Very discouraging, but you gotta realize the long run is where the results are.

 

[Guynoire]

Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion? If you haven't I'll just give you the gist of it. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical concept that tells you the optimal bet to make, as a function of your bankroll, during an advantage to grow your bankroll at the fastest rate possible.

Betting anything less than full kelly when you have an advantage will still grow your bankroll but at a slower rate.

What is much worse is that betting anything over full kelly will make money at a lower rate, and if you bet more than twice full kelly you are mathematically proven to lose money in the long run even though you are making bets with an advantage.

Anyway, the Kelly Criterion is the mathematical proof that overbetting will eventually kill any bankroll in the long run. If you haven't already done so I'd reassess your betting scheme to make sure you are not overbetting.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion? If you haven't I'll just give you the gist of it. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical concept that tells you the optimal bet to make, as a function of your bankroll, during an advantage to grow your bankroll at the fastest rate possible.

Betting anything less than full kelly when you have an advantage will still grow your bankroll but at a slower rate.

What is much worse is that betting anything over full kelly will make money at a lower rate, and if you bet more than twice full kelly you are mathematically proven to lose money in the long run even though you are making bets with an advantage.

Anyway, the Kelly Criterion is the mathematical proof that overbetting will eventually kill any bankroll in the long run. If you haven't already done so I'd reassess your betting scheme to make sure you are not overbetting.

Another way to put it is this:

If you have a bankroll and you play a game with a full-Kelly spread, there is a 13% chance you are going to bankrupt and an 87% chance your bankroll will go to infinity (if you live that long.) If you play half-Kelly, the chances of being in the unlucky 13% for one bankroll, and again for a second one are 13% of 13%, for 1.7%.

Play a larger spread than full-Kelly, your win rate goes up linearly and the chance of bankruptcy goes up exponentially as you increase, although there is still a chance of reaching infinity. Even though each individual counter is going to go to zero or infinity, the average lifetime win rate of a counter will be at a maximum when his spread is at exactly full-Kelly.

This all assumes no rebuys! When you have a steady income you never go to zero, so the calculation becomes much more psychological, how willing are you to dig into your other funds to counteract bad variance in BJ? It also assumes no bet resizing.

 

[davidpom]

Those articles aren't really helpful to most of the people on this website. Most of us play with an advantage of some sort, so the typical "money management" and "stop loss" techniques don't really apply to us.-Sonny-

Hi Sonny, thanks for the feedback. I'm guessing that whilst there are lots of skilled advantage players here that there are also a few newer beginners to the world of counting - which is why I thought those articles MIGHT be interesting. If they're not, no problem. If they are, that's great too.

In any case, I appreciate you taking the time to reply. Nice to meet you.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

That is completely normal, a few hundred dollars is nothign to be winning or losing playing 100 or more per hand. In my experience i have never seen a win or loss greater than 20 times my max bet in one shoe, but i have certainly seen many wins and losses close to that amount. Most of the time the max bets only account for less than half of the shoe so it goes to show that the variance is totally wild and random.

You will play shoes where you win thousands and play shoes where you lose thousands, it happens all the time, you just need to get used to the idea and have faith in your playing accuracy and the underlaying math.